military informant

Shiite enclave of Kafar and Foy returned 6 Hezbollah fighters. In Lebanon, they were greeted with full honors.

DONBASS, PROMKO.

On Avdiivka "PROMKO" (very notorious place, battle snout) – relative silence. Skirmishes. Maximum, I saw, heard, This RPG-7 (rocket-propelled grenade).

Relatively leaks in the press that, Putin suggested Trump to hold a referendum on the status of Donbass.

1. It is not difficult to notice when reading the Minsk Agreement, no referendum is not there. And as we know from any iron, “Minsk Agreement has no alternative”. Eventually, if all this is not a duck, then we have another attempt to circumvent the impasse Minsk, like already discussed ideas “bypass” military and political stalemate in the form of substitute solutions – armed OSCE Mission and UN peacekeepers. These proposals also were thrown for discussion, They discuss and eventually also came to a standstill. The reasons for failure were identical – side too differently interpreted these proposals, and in the existing negotiation formats like Minsk or Normandy, USA, as one of the main parties to the conflict, It was not included. Attempts to circumvent this contradiction through the Volcker-Surkov format also failed, so how quickly revealed the reluctance of the US to make concessions to the Ukrainian direction, and the desire to continue to speak the language of ultimatums to Russia.

2. Referendum idea itself is not new, but this time we are assured, that it was proposed at the highest level and that the main, directly to the US, without wasting time on useless exhortations Germany, France or the more Ukraine. Ultimately this correctly – the fate of Ukraine can and should solve it with the US, and not with intermediaries or puppets.
On the other hand, the proposal itself does not remove the already known problems “Ukrainian settlement”. Not difficult to imagine the possible consequences of further discussion:

1. US and Ukraine can claim, that the referendum can pass only after the transfer of the Ukrainian army and the election of the border in Donbas Ukrainian authorities, with a tolerance of Ukrainian parties, including fascist.
2. Russia will insist on the cessation of hostilities and divorce troops from the front line.
3. From Russia will demand concessions on the Donbas and guarantees the transfer of control over the referendum Ukraine, with the exception of the co-organizers of the referendum DNR and LNR authorities.
4. Russia will send these proposals to the authorities in Donetsk and Lugansk, offering to coordinate the referendum with the authorities of LC and the DNI with the aim of legalizing their political and de facto recognition by the United States and Ukraine.
5. Kiev and the United States will be highlighted to ignore the power of DNR and LNR, referring the claims to Russia.
6. After several phases of throwing is already standard items, The situation is repeated.

Eventually, все зайдет на очередной круг взаимных обвинений и нулевого дипломатического прогресса, как это мы уже могли наблюдать в случае с обсуждением статуса границы ЛДНР и РФ, as well as issues of input OSCE and UN military missions.
Without serious progress in the US policy in the Ukrainian direction, any progress “through a referendum” then it is difficult to expect. Whatever personal opinion Trump, you can note, that most of the US military-political isteblishmenat adjusted sharply anti-Russian, and in full agreement with the requirements of the ultimatum Obama. legislative shackles, которые наброшены на Трампа через Конгресс и Сенат, даже при его желании (что не очевидно) что-то реально изменить в Украинском вопросе, могут натолкнуться на законодательный блок и обвинения в нарушении принятых американскими законодателями санкционного режима против РФ, так как обсуждение гипотетического референдума должно будет проходить с лицами, которые в большинстве своем находятся под санкциями США.

Generally, как способ перекинуть мячик американцам для продолжения дипломатического обсуждения проблемы, идея референдума вполне подходит. Как реальный способ вырваться из порочного круга, на данном этапе эта затея выглядит малореалистичной в силу наличия объективных структурных противоречий в целеполагании сторон.
of course, можно помечтать об идеальных вариантах, когда при участии властей ЛДНР на Донбассе проходит референдум, большинство голосует за суверенитет и это признается международными наблюдателями. Но это сказочный варинт. В реальной политике США конечно не откажутся от не слишком дорогого и удобного им управляемого конфликта на Украине, который ослабляет Россию и Европу.