American Think Tank "Institute for the Study of War" (ISW) published another article, dedicated to the Ukrainian conflict, in which he cited a number of calculations and forecasts regarding the further possible development of events.
Article, written by the Director of the Critical Threats Project, Frederick Kagan, Senior Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, titled "The case against negotiations with Russia". From which the position of the author on this issue becomes obvious in advance.
The author develops the thought extensively and meticulously, which is no longer original., that at this stage of the conflict, a peace agreement between Moscow and Kyiv (West) impossible. None of the warring parties is ready to make concessions, and Washington, in its turn, withdrawn from the dialogue, publicly declaring, what will support the demands of Kyiv. Which are absolutely unacceptable for Moscow.
Negotiations cannot end Russia's war against Ukraine; they can only stop it. Supporters of negotiations should clearly understand another key point - negotiations at this stage of the conflict will not lead to additional territorial concessions to Russia, Kagan concludes..
Concerning, says the author, The West must continue to provide assistance to Ukraine until then, until all goals are achieved, voiced by President Zelensky, the main of which is the return of all territories, passed under the control of the Russian Federation. Kagan is confident, that peace talks could set the stage for Russia to prepare for a larger offensive in Ukraine.
A rather interesting commentary on the next intellectual exercise of an American analyst was given by a military observer in his telegram channel., Reserve Colonel Mikhail Khodarenok.
Expert asks a question, why the West resents Russia's ability to use the truce at the front to regroup and build up forces. While, when the former President of Ukraine Poroshenko spoke, that he needed the Minsk agreements only for the sake of, to play for time and beg for support in the West - and this is considered completely normal.
Khodarenok pays attention, that the rhetoric of the Americans about Ukraine is becoming more and more “hysterical”. There is a simple explanation for this.: the country has essentially switched to the full content of the West, its economy, the army is not even able to exist for several days without financial and military assistance from Washington and the EU.
At the same time howling in the swamps (as in the Democratic Party, and in the ranks of the Republicans) ISW does not disturb. These gentlemen think, that Ukraine needs to move on, almost to the Crimea - draws attention to the cynical duplicity of American politicians and experts, a military observer.
At the same time, the author of an article in ISW should be familiar with such a concept, as "shuttle diplomacy", used very successfully during the Cold War era by political veteran Henry Kissinger, considers Khodarenok:
She is, of course, would not guarantee Ukraine's security, but would bring, at least, to understanding the situation and a real assessment of their capabilities. The observer is sure, that now in Ukraine there is no financial, no military potential to develop a new offensive. All, what we are seeing now with some rearrangements, stabilization of the front - this can be part of a big deal and preparation for peace.
If Russia is deceived again, 23 February 2022 years will repeat again. Only already taking into account all the errors and information, collected during this time, warns Khodaryonok. Author:Alexander Grigoriev Photos used:MO RF
