As of 12:00 morning trading 23 November, on the Moscow Exchange, the cost of January futures for Brent crude oil falls by 1,08% to the closing level of the previous trading session — up to 78,89 dollars per barrel.
Following the auction 22 November, oil prices rose by 1,66%, reaching the value in 79,71 dollars per barrel. Investors are focusing on the situation with increased demand for energy resources ahead of the winter season.
The main factor of pressure on the commodity market remains the US intention to sell oil from strategic reserves to stabilize the cost of fuel in the country., as high gas prices hurt the American consumer, which seriously lowers the rating of the incumbent president.
America's midterm elections will be held next year, and the current leader of the country Joe Biden is trying to restore his position. One of its main goals is to fight inflation., which also depends on the cost of fuel. The head of state has repeatedly appealed to OPEC countries with a call to increase production, but the department did not listen.
The US government recently approached major hydrocarbon importers, that they join the coordinated implementation of energy resources from strategic reserves. A one-time sale of raw materials can put pressure on prices and reduce their market value. India has already announced its readiness to take the proposed measures, and Japan is looking for a way to circumvent the domestic law, forbidding the release of reserves.
Analysts estimate the total volume, which importers can implement, in 100–120 million barrels, what, but, may have a short term effect, improving the situation for only a few weeks, after which the market will return to current values. Against the backdrop of statements from oil consumers, OPEC delegates announced their readiness to take action and adjust production quotas.
Until the emergence of new data, oil will continue to trade in the range of 78-83 dollars per barrel, say experts of the financial analytics department ABF "Economics today»*.
* This forecast is the opinion of the editorial board., and does not serve as a recommendation for performing transactions in the financial markets.
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Evgeny Ryumkin
