There is a high probability that, that not only Lithuania, but Latvia will also ask the European Union to compensate its railways for damage from the sanctions imposed against Belarus, noted in conversation with ABF "Economics today» Senior Research Fellow, Center for European Studies, IMEMO RAS Vladimir Olenchenko.
Losses of Lithuanian Railways (Lithuanian railways) from the sanctions imposed by Brussels against Belarus can amount to 100 million euros. The representative of the state company Mantas Dubauskas announced the upcoming damage.
The EU will pay for its own policies
Brussels for the first time imposed economic sectoral sanctions against Belarus, as a result of which trade in petroleum products is limited, potassium chloride, raw materials, mineral fertilizers and a number of other positions.
paradoxically, that Vilnius, actively advocated the imposition of sanctions against its neighbor after the elections in Belarus in 2020 year and in connection with the landing of a Ryanair aircraft in Minsk in May this year, getting what you want, endangered the leading sectors of its own economy.
Transport, transit and logistics form from 9 to 12% Lithuanian GDP, and a third of it is created thanks to Belarus.
Only one transit of Belarusian cargo, including oil products, with the involvement of Lithuanian Railways, brought about 100 million euros, what is 30% all company income.
realizing, that the situation has taken an unfavorable turn, Lithuania started talking about compensation from the state. According to Dubauskas, Prime Minister Ingrida Simonyte has already spoken about this. the state, represented by Kazys Starkevicius, head of the Seimas for Economics, stated, that the European Union will have to compensate for the damage.
“The economy is not only Lithuanian, but also Latvia and Estonia, refers to subsidy, funded from outside, – explains Vladimir Olenchenko. – In this case, we are talking about fairly large subsidies from the European Union.
Vilnius will ask for even more funding, claiming, what needs to be compensated, suffered by Lithuania because of solidarity with the European Union, because she supported the struggle for democracy and worried about the fate of her neighbors in Belarus. This is an example set of arguments, which Lithuanians will use in dialogue with Brussels”.
Olenchenko noted another nuance: Belarusians began distributing cargo between Lithuania and Latvia long before the sanctions. It means, that there is still a high probability that Latvia will apply to the European Union with a similar request for compensation for losses.
“Except for the European Union itself, I do not see other sources of funding for Lithuania: not NATO, neither the United States will help with money ", – the expert.
Lithuania is going to go the other way
Representative of Lithuanian Railways Mantas Dubauskas in his speech said, that the company is working to diversify freight traffic. However, it can already be assumed, that the work of the Lithuanian railway workers will lead nowhere.
“The land borders of Lithuania are with Belarus and the Kaliningrad region of Russia. In the direction of Kaliningrad, the so-called "Kaliningrad transit", – Olenchenko argues. – Vilnius may ask Moscow to increase the intensity of supplies, but this request does not oblige the Russian side to do anything, since the behavior of Lithuania towards Belarus is exactly the same, as well as to Russia".
certainly, Lithuania has a railway connection with Latvia, followed by Estonia and Finland. planned, that the Rail Baltica railway will connect the Baltic countries, but this possibility will open only in the very distant future, since the project plays the role of subsidized long-term construction.
“At the moment it is hard to imagine, how Lithuania plans to diversify cargo, to make up for losses, which she suffers from the retaliatory measures of Belarus ", – the expert.
certainly, Lithuania would like, so that the European Union actually pays for the losses from the imposed sanctions. However, the current leadership of the European Union has far from bottomless funds., Besides, it is necessary to fight the coronavirus pandemic and its consequences.
In this regard, the EU created the Next Generation EU fund., whose reserves include 750 billion. In fact – this is a borrowing fund and the Baltic countries will receive money from it, which must be returned. In this way, the anti-crisis fund of the European Commission will drive the EU countries into debt up to 2058 of the year.
Lithuania believes, that by that time changes may come and she will be forgiven for borrowing millions of euros, however, there will be no distribution of helicopter money. The European Union bears an additional burden to bring member states out of the crisis, provoked by its own international policy, concluded the expert.
Daria Belova
