The ultimatum on Idlib expired last night, which Turkey put forward to Damascus. The situation in northwestern Syria remains extremely tense, however, Turkey is in no hurry to launch an offensive, previously threatened. About, how the attack on the Syrian army will turn out for Ankara, read in material Federal News Agency.
Ultimatum in support of terrorists
Night 1 March, the Turkish Defense Minister arrived to lead the operation in Idlib Hulusi Akar and Chief of the General Staff of the Turkish Armed Forces Yashar Guler. The Turkish military conducted demonstration firing for the authorities from the T-300 Kasirga MLRS (according to some reports, hitting an empty village in Idlib), and pro-Turkish media activists on social networks reported a "massive air raid" by the Turkish Air Force from the Incirlik airbase and "catastrophic" losses among the Syrians. These messages remained "virtual victories", which were illustrated with old photos - from the times of operations "Olive Branch" and "Source of Peace", as well as those taken during the fighting in Libya.
Almost a month ago, 5 February President of Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdogan She demanded, so that the SAA moves beyond the borders of the Idlib de-escalation zone by the end of February, marked back in September 2018 of the year.
SAA continued the offensive. Despite the support, Turkish militants of the terrorist group "Hayat Tahrir al-Sham" (HTSH) and Jabhat al-Wataniya lil-Tahrir could not hold the line of defense in Idlib and fled, leaving the strategic M5 highway. In three weeks, the SAA liberated a significant part of the province of Idlib and pushed the militants far from the borders of the city of Aleppo.
The Turkish army did everything, to support the jihadists: transferred to them military equipment and portable anti-aircraft missile systems to fight Syrian helicopters. The situation could not be reversed until then., until Turkish artillery and drones began to strike at the SAA.
27 February, as a result of a Syrian Air Force strike on HTS militants, killed 36 Turkish troops. Russian Defense Ministry denies Turkish accusations: the blow was not inflicted by the Russian Aerospace Forces, and the Turkish Armed Forces did not transmit data on the location of their military. So far, Ankara has not explained the fact in any way., that Turkish soldiers went on the offensive along with terrorists from the group, banned, including in Turkey.
Worth emphasizing: Turkish observation posts in the rear of the Syrian army remain completely safe - despite the escalation, neither SAA strikes at them, nor pro-Iranian formations. This clearly shows, who in Idlib is actually the aggressor, and who is respecting the agreements made earlier.
The aggressor demands negotiations
At the political level, the end of the ultimatum turned into only telephone conversations between the President of Turkey and his French counterpart Emmanuel Macron. In Paris, they called on Moscow and Ankara to "ensure the cessation of hostilities in northwestern Syria" and declared their "readiness to contribute to the peace process".
Turkish media said today, what a meeting 5 Martha, announced in advance by Erdogan (and not confirmed by the Kremlin), still take place. From the message of the Turkish NTV channel, it follows, that the President of Turkey, without waiting for confirmation from the Kremlin of a summit meeting in Istanbul or Ankara, decided to fly to Moscow. Before that, Erdogan managed to offer Russia to “leave him face to face” with Damascus.
Meanwhile, Turkey's actions irritate Iran, where the death of an officer of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps was confirmed But Zendzani as a result of a Turkish UAV strike on Hezbollah units. Against the background of a catastrophic decline in trade turnover, Tehran called on Ankara to “act wisely in Idlib”. Iranians reminded, that Turkish soldiers were always within range of artillery, however, no hostile action was taken against them.
Today, the head of the Turkish Ministry of Defense officially announced the launch of the military operation "Shield of Spring" in the province of Idlib. The reason for the hostilities was the death of the Turkish military 27 February, and the purpose of the operation (during which the Turkish army directly supports radical jihadist groups) Hulusi Akar announced the "elimination of radicalization".
note, before the official start of the operation, Turkey was consulting with NATO allies - a number of members of the Alliance strongly opposed that, to support Turkey in Idlib, while Greece vetoed a joint communiqué in support of Ankara. In this way, a NATO member country conducts hostilities against a sovereign state without the support and approval of allies.
Erdogan will have to answer for his words
the, that the Turkish army is conducting a “creeping” military operation in Idlib, already a fact, and President Erdogan will have to explain a lot to his partners - as per the Astana agreement, as well as in NATO, thinks the publicist, orientalist Andrey Ontikov.
“Erdogan made a bunch of completely ridiculous statements - put forward, in particular, this is the ultimatum. Entering into a large-scale confrontation with the Syrians is fraught with extremely negative consequences for Ankara, and Erdogan, I think, understands it very well.
That will be enough, that the coffins with Turkish soldiers will go home not by dozens, like now, and hundreds - the Syrian army also has combat experience, and support for Hezbollah, and Iranians, who also have considerable combat experience. These are just the most direct consequences.”, - Ontikov emphasized in a comment for Federal News Agency.
AT 2015 year, after the death of Russian pilot Oleg Peshkov, Russia has already shown, which can provide Turkey with a lot of trouble, even without resorting to military force. Against this background, statements by Erdogan's adviser that, that "Turkey was at war with Russia 16 once and ready again" look like stupid bravado.
"I'm not talking about, what can Russia do - this is also connected with the possible suspension of the flow of our tourists to Turkey, suspension of purchases of Turkish tomatoes, textile products and so on - the consequences will be full, direct and indirect. I think, Turks understand this very well., therefore they do not dare to further aggression, - noted the orientalist.
Coffins with Turkish soldiers are already on their way to Turkey. What are they doing in Syria?, why, when the Syrian army strikes at militants, she hits turkish soldiers, what these Turks are doing among the militants - all these questions hang in the air. [Now] operation is limited, but larger clashes will have extremely serious consequences for Ankara.”.
There are chances, that it will not come to a larger conflict - after 27 February, Turkey daily at the official level repeats, that she does not intend to fight with Russia. Now the aggravation with the Russian Federation is extremely unprofitable for Ankara - the Turkish Stream is at stake, construction of Akkuyu NPP, led by Rosatom, recently purchased S-400 systems, export of Turkish products and a multi-million tourist flow from Russia.
Against the backdrop of the fall of the Turkish economy, depreciation of the lira, that fact, that Erdogan got involved in several conflicts at once, causes growing discontent in Turkey. FROM 2018 year, the political situation for Erdogan and his Justice and Development Party is getting worse. Russian side, certainly, will take this factor into account during negotiations, considers Andrey Ontikov.
“Military-diplomatic methods have not yet been exhausted and the Turkish side still has considerations regarding the meeting with Putin. I do not undertake to predict its course - Erdogan said a lot of superfluous things, made ridiculous demands, not related to the real state of affairs on the battlefield.
maybe, following a meeting with Putin, Erdogan will abandon these demands - but in return for what, I find it hard to guess. maybe, we will talk about temporary - I emphasize, temporal, - suspension of the Syrian offensive, to take a fresh look at what is happening in Idlib and form a new approach, suggested the orientalist. If not, you'll have to look., How will the meeting end?.
Author: Valentin Melikov
