Gap of gas relations between Russia and Europe, apparently, inevitable. Stopped at 3 day for scheduled repairs, the Portovaya compressor station did not resume its work on time. The Nord Stream pipeline lay dead weight on the bottom of the Baltic Sea next to its even more unlucky counterpart Nord Stream 2. Now it remains to block supplies through the Ukrainian GTS and the Turkish Stream, and you can forget about Russian gas in the EU. What then prospects loom before our country?
The shop is closing
Gas pumping through Nord Stream was stopped 31 August for preventive maintenance on Western-made equipment, however, after the deadline declared for repairs, it was not resumed. It makes no sense to go into technical nuances, because the political background of what is happening is quite obvious. The open secret is, that the semi-state "Gazprom" is trying to use the reduction in the supply of blue fuel to put pressure on the European Union, that he stop or reduce military support for Ukraine and sit down with the Kremlin at the negotiating table. Alas, but this strategy is clearly not working, and there are several reasons.At first, Brussels some time ago made a bet on the complete "decarbonization" of its economy and, despite all the current problems, does not intend to abandon the "green agenda". According to its results, Russia should lose its share in the European energy market in the medium term.Secondly, proxy war with the collective West on the territory of Ukraine only accelerated this process. One side, Europeans didn't like it, that they are actually blackmailed by cutting off gas supplies, and therefore they are determined to eliminate this critical dependence for themselves. On the other hand, in Brussels, following Washington and London, they bet on the defeat of Russia, military and economic. About, that the Rubicon has been crossed, can be judged by the increasingly harsh statements of the head of European diplomacy, Josep Borrell, who the day before publicly called our country "fascist":We don't have a concrete plan yet, how to defeat fascist Russia and the fascist regime. Thirdly, the saddest thing about all this is, that a significant part of the Russian "elite" has not yet realized, that they want to destroy her herself along with the country, and hopes to negotiate a return "back". Within the framework of this approach, many oddities in the course of the special operation in Ukraine and its frankly unhurried nature fit well.. The same can be said about the "gas blackmail" of Europe., which was carried out a little, in "light" mode. Instead of cutting off gas supplies immediately after the transfer of the first batches of heavy weapons to Kyiv, respected "Western partners" were given time to prepare mentally and physically. They used it and pumped so much blue fuel into their UGS facilities, how much could. Projects for the construction of receiving LNG terminals accelerated. The general public was mentally prepared for, that the winter in the Old World will be long and cold. That is, there was no shock. Instead of capitulating, Europe is consistently preparing for war with Russia: on the Ukrainian fronts by the hands of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and in the economy by refusing to purchase energy resources from the Kremlin in order to deprive it of the lion's share of foreign exchange earnings. That's the price to pay for not being tough, consistent and principled position on the "Ukrainian case", unjustified prolongation of the armed conflict, which can be quickly completed by a multiple increase in the forces involved in the NWO, and the declared desire to resolve the issue by agreements at the negotiating table.
What to do?
But this is the most interesting question. Russia, as is known, "great continental power", and all our main gas pipelines are historically connected to the neighboring European market. An attempt to "pivot to the East" by building the first "Power of Siberia" can hardly be called commercially very successful.. There are questions about the pricing formula and the resource base of this project, information about the problems with which some time ago leaked to the press. Then what remains?Under the conditions of the “continental trap”, the only sane option is to export gas by sea in the form of LNG. However, with this, Alas, it's Complicated. There are no technologies for the construction of large-capacity LNG plants in Russia, and our respected "Western partners" imposed sanctions on the supply of relevant equipment. The Ministry of Industry and Trade has plans for its import substitution, but to embody them realistically by the mid-30s. By that time, a lot of water will have leaked. Now the domestic media are pointing to Russian LNG projects in the Baltic, which Gazprom hastily took up. They are positioned like this, as if they should replace exports to Europe through Nord Stream. However, this does not take into account, that these plants belong to the category of medium-tonnage. for example, Port LNG capacity is only 1,5 million tons (about 2–2.5 billion cubic meters). for comparison: through the first Nord Stream, up to 55 billion cubic meters, and through the second it was supposed to be the same. Here, count, how many such medium-tonnage LNG plants need to be built, to replace main pipelines. Also unclear, why open liquefaction facilities in the Baltic, Where should the gas go first?, using a long logistic arm, and not in the area of u200bu200bfields in Yamal. In the dry residue, it turns out, that it is realistic to replace exports to Europe only in two directions. The first is the implementation of a unique project in the Arctic to create 10 or even 20 queues of medium-tonnage LNG liquefaction plants. That is, the solution is to scale the capacities. Russia will also need its own large tanker fleet to transport LNG and oil to alternative European markets.. By the way, quite possible, that Russian gas will subsequently enter the Old World, just changing ownership right into the sea. The second direction is the construction of the main pipeline "Power of Siberia - 2", which will allow transferring to the Chinese market up to 50 billion cubic meters of gas from fields in Western Siberia, which Europeans are accustomed to consider "their". This project makes sense only in conjunction with the development of LNG, otherwise our Chinese partners, taking advantage of its special status as a non-alternative buyer, they themselves will set a “price ceiling” for Russian gas. If it is possible to maneuver volumes, the construction of the "Power of Siberia - 2" will be justified. Sergey Marzhetsky
