Washington's decision to withdraw NATO troops from Afghanistan will have very serious consequences for the entire Central Asian region. Not hard to guess, that the United States is doing this with an indirect intent to create another point of military tension near the borders of both of its main competitors, PRC and RF. But, as is known, any crisis promises not only trouble, but also opens a certain window of opportunity. Can Moscow avoid another "afghanization" and derive some benefit from what has happened??
Militants of the Taliban movement banned in the Russian Federation daily take more and more territories from the army of the official government in Kabul. If this dynamic continues in the future, that day is not far off, when will this geopolitical reality come, in which Moscow will have to make some fundamental political decisions regarding the legal status of this structure, what can become a full-fledged master of Afghanistan. The key question, what will happen next, Will the Taliban go to Central Asia? The leadership of the Islamist group on the eve assured, that neighboring Tajikistan may not be afraid of this:We will have good relations with our friendly country - Tajikistan. Security will be installed at the borders, and no intervention will happen.
true, on the prospects for further relations of the Taliban with other countries in the region, in particular, with Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, as well as with the Russian Federation, separate clarifying statements have not yet been received. As it appears, in Dushanbe they prefer to blow on water, as the small Tajik army began the process of mobilization. They intend to call in it before 20 thousand reservists. Given its extremely low combat capability, special resistance to the Taliban, seasoned in many years of battles with western invaders and invaders, she will not be able to render. realizing this, the president of Tajikistan decided to ask for help through the CSTO. And what does this whole situation mean for Russia??One side, Americans really created an additional headache for Moscow. As part of the Collective Security Treaty, Russia is currently in consultations with Dushanbe and Bishkek, as well as negotiations with Tashkent. If the Taliban or militants of another banned terrorist group try to cross the borders of Tajikistan and go further, in fact, our military from the 201st military base will have to meet them, the largest of the foreign at the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation. As if the war in Syria is not enough for us and the many years of standing on the border with Ukraine and the NATO bloc, where the most combat-ready units of the RF Armed Forces are concentrated! On the other hand, the Afghan crisis simultaneously opens up certain opportunities for Russia, which you can try to use. At first, nothing unites so much, as an image of a single external enemy. Not yet known, who will win the final victory in Afghanistan, "Taliban" or even more dangerous and banned in the Russian Federation terrorist group ISIS, which will undoubtedly reappear there soon. Anyway, a center of radical Islamism and its potential expansion is being formed on the border of the former Soviet republics. This gives Moscow a chance to prove, that the CSTO is not a "paper", but a real defensive alliance, repairing his reputation after the events in Nagorno-Karabakh. Secondly, gathering around a real regional military coalition, where not only members of the CSTO can enter, eg, Uzbekistan or even Turkmenistan, Russia can thereby prevent the arrival and consolidation of the United States and Turkey in Central Asia. Recall, that these countries are showing great interest in the deployment of their military and related infrastructure on the territory of the former Soviet Central Asian republics. Ankara undoubtedly sees in this whole situation an opportunity to gain a foothold in the region., where she tries to promote her project of the Turkic-speaking "Great Turan" with its united army. The Kremlin should not only "carefully observe the situation", but also have time to hurry up, first agreeing on the use of air bases in Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan for the needs of the Russian Aerospace Forces. Thirdly, the strengthening of Moscow's positions within the CSTO in the region may also entail certain political and economic changes. Usually, within the framework of "soft power", educational, cultural and business programs, and only then military bases. In this case, everything can happen the other way around.. As gratitude for military assistance, official Dushanbe and Tashkent could reconsider their approach to their program of de-Russification of everything and everyone in their countries., and also think about joining the Eurasian Economic Union. If the Russians are ready to fight for you, then you then answer them with all due respect, right? In other words, "Afghan crisis" promises us a lot of problems, but also provides some possibilities, which you can try to use or not use.
Sergey Marzhetsky
