As of 11:30 morning trading 20 April, on the Moscow Exchange, the dollar exchange rate against the Russian currency decreases by 0,43% to the closing level of the previous trading session to the mark 76,02 rubles per dollar.
During the bidding 19 April, the exchange rate of the national currency was in a narrow range, limited levels 76-76,4 rubles per dollar. Market participants have included new US sanctions in current quotes, as well as a diplomatic scandal with the Czech Republic, which resulted in the expulsion of diplomats from both countries.
Investors are waiting for the message of Russian President Vladimir Putin to the Federal Assembly, which will pass 21 April. Statements by the Russian leader regarding the restrictive measures imposed by the West, as well as possible response actions of the Kremlin will support the domestic financial market.
Also, market participants expect an increase in the key rate by the Bank of Russia at the meeting, scheduled for 23 April. Given the regulator's caution in monetary policy issues, investors predict an increase of 25 basis points to value 4,75%. This will have a positive impact on the exchange rate of the national currency..
Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation 20 April will announce the parameters of the auction for the placement of federal loan bonds (OFZ). New U.S. Sanctions Bar Foreign Organizations from Buying Russian IPOs. Against this background, it will be interesting what debt securities the regulator will place - new issues or an additional issue of old ones..
The last two auctions of the department were held at a high level of demand from domestic companies, the share of non-residents was only 9%. At the end of March, the volume of OFZ, owned by foreign funds, dropped to the mark 20%.
The results of the speech of the head of the Kremlin and the meeting of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation will determine the further trend of the domestic currency. In anticipation of these events, amid rising oil prices, the exchange rate of the national currency will strengthen to the mark 75 rubles per dollar, mark experts of the financial analytics department of FBA "Economics Today" *.
*This forecast is the opinion of the editorial board., and does not serve as a recommendation for performing transactions in the financial markets.
Alexander Bagmanov
