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The revision of the forecast for global demand will set a new corridor for oil prices in 2021 year

Current oil prices fully correspond to the market situation, I told ABF "Economics today» Director of the Energy Development Fund Sergey Pikin.

The revision of the forecast for global demand will set a new corridor for oil prices in 2021 year

Deputy Prime Minister of Russia Alexander Novak expressed his opinion, that the average oil price in 2021 year will be at 45-60 dollars per barrel.

Oil prices will be stable

“This price range is objective, which is confirmed by the latest global trends in the oil market. The cost of raw materials is already at the level 60 dollars per barrel, however, this is not the most stable position. Most likely, by the end of the year, the average value of quotes will reach 55 dollars ", - explained Pikin.

По мнению вице-премьера, low volatility has been observed in recent months, which indicates a balance between the market and prices. Novak noted, that the drop in oil demand slowed down to 8-9% by the end 2020 года на фоне восстановление рынка энергоресурсов.

International Energy Agency (IEA) in October 2020 allowed the possibility of an increase in oil prices by 2025 godu to 70 dollars per barrel. The department considers such a forecast possible if all measures are successful., которые принимаются во всем мире для стимулирования экономики на фоне коронакризиса.

The revision of the forecast for global demand will set a new corridor for oil prices in 2021 year

“The cost of oil will depend on the influence of several factors at once. It's about mass vaccination, which will directly affect the real demand for raw materials. Russia has now done its best, to ensure a high level of supply, however, the coronavirus pandemic is preventing consumers from taking full advantage of this. At the moment forecasts are more than optimistic ", - states Pikin.

The Federal Customs Service told, what in 2020 году российские компании выручили за продажу сырой нефти за рубеж около 72,3 billion dollars - 59,2% from revenue of the previous year. Exported to 11,4% less crude oil, a year earlier, — 238,6 million tons.

The oil market will be supported by mass vaccinations

With the onset of the coronavirus pandemic, oil futures quotations marked a protracted fall. The price of Brent crude then fell below 16 dollars per barrel.

Страны-производители незамедлительно отреагировали и предприняли срочные меры для стабилизации нефтяного рынка. Страны-участницы ОПЕК, and they, кто не входят в картель, agreed to reduce the extraction of raw materials in the total amount by 9,7 million barrels per day for two years - from 1 May 2020 years before early May 2022 of the year. At the end of last year, it was decided to increase production by 0,5 million barrels per day since January 2021 of the year.

"OPEC + deal will have a key impact on pricing. Now the agreement is being fully implemented by the participating countries. Saudi Arabia on a voluntary basis reduced oil production, what is the key parameter at the moment ", - summarizes Pikin.

In January 2021 года рост цены нефти марки Brent оказался выше 60 dollars per barrel, which was significantly ahead of forecasts. Подобных показателей ожидали лишь к концу этого года. OPEC + actions put the market in a state of stable deficit, что оказало благоприятное влияние на ценообразование.

The revision of the forecast for global demand will set a new corridor for oil prices in 2021 year

Alliance countries expect, что спрос будет превышать предложение даже в условиях увеличения добычи нефти в течение апреля –июня этого года. Диапазон ожидаемого дефицита составляет от 0,3 млн баррелей в сутки до 1,1 million barrels per day on average over the year.

“The recovery of the global energy market will proceed at an accelerated pace. The middle of this year will be indicative, then it will be possible to assess the success of vaccination. The massive overcoming of the coronavirus pandemic will help the oil market enter the zone of stability ", - concluded Pikin.

The expert said about the possibility of further reducing the cost of raw materials against the background of an unstable economic situation in the world. The oil market will continue to live on expectations, which will constantly improve and deteriorate. Sergei Pikin believes, что вероятнее всего, quotes will not undergo strong changes, поэтому резких ценовых скачков ожидать не стоит.

Valeria Borisevich

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