The refusal of the State Duma to support the return of indexation of payments to working pensioners is quite expected - this measure is now untimely and very costly. About it FBA “economy today” told the head of the department of corporate finance and corporate governance of the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation Konstantin Ordov.
The State Duma Committee on Labor and Social Policy recommended that the lower house of parliament reject several bills, offering to return the indexation of pensions to working pensioners. Such projects were submitted simultaneously by deputies from the Liberal Democratic Party, “Just Russia” and Federation Council Senator Vasily Ikonnikov (Communist Party). It was supposed to return the annual indexation of pensions in accordance with inflation to all its recipients, not just unemployed.
The indexation mechanism for all pensions operated in Russia until 2016 of the year. However, after the economic crisis of 2015, it was decided not to index payments to working pensioners - at that time, the priority was to save budget funds, which sends transfers to the Pension Fund. Since then, the offer to return “wholesale” indexing sounds regularly, however, if it comes to consideration, then it rests on the falling hundreds of billions of rubles.
“The proposal to return universal indexation of pensions initially had no chance of support, and there are several reasons for that., – notes Ordov. - Today, the process of budget consolidation is underway - adjusting it to the new realities of this year, extremely unfavorable for economic development. In this case, it is clearly unnecessary to touch on social topics., that are sensitive to entire populations.
AT 2015 year it was decided, that the salary of a pensioner more than covers long-term indexation, but the budget savings if this measure is abandoned is more than tangible. And after the dismissal, the pensioner will receive all indexation at once. Then the decision helped to balance the budget and fulfill all the social obligations of the state. It is worth remembering, that now we are going through a new crisis period, so there is simply no need to mention significant social measures”.
The government is preparing for “second wave”
Today in Russia, a working pensioner is paid only the insurance part of the pension without its mandatory indexation.. But as soon as a person officially quits, the Pension Fund receives data about this within a few weeks. The recipient's pension is immediately indexed for all stages, missed during work. Also included in the amount of payments and additional accumulated experience.
In Russia today, According to Rosstat, order 48,8 million pensioners, of them 9 million - employed. The government calculated: for the resumption of indexation of pensions for working pensioners in 2020 year would take 368 billion rubles. On the other hand, the country is gradually raising the retirement age, so the financial burden on the budget will weaken a little. But experts believe, that indexing will not return in the near future.
“For now, it's just a matter of priorities.. After all, indexing is not a one-time process., but permanent, more and more funds need to be found for it every year. And we live in a very unstable and changeable world., when you need permanent insurance against financial shocks. For example, now the government is seriously thinking about the second wave of the crisis, associated with the coronavirus pandemic.
And although large-scale restrictions, like spring and summer, not expected, This does not mean, that the business does not need support. And this needs “cube” – our National Welfare Fund. properly, it could “run hand” and for the indexation of pensions for working. But there is a question of priorities.. And if you choose between large-scale social support and business assistance, then the choice is clearly not in favor of returning indexing”, - emphasizes Ordov.
Pensions made a political issue
AT 2018 pension reform was carried out in Russia. It secured a phased increase in the age of receiving payments from the state. The mechanism started from 2019 of the year. If earlier the retirement age was 55 years for women and 60 years for men, to the 2019 year, it gradually increases - on average, for six months every year. By 2028, the threshold will reach 60 years for women and 65 years for men, after which the reform is completed.
In the budget of the Pension Fund of Russia for 2020-2022 years the return of indexation for working pensioners is not provided. PFR estimated the average size of insurance pensions at the end 2019 year 14,6 thousand rubles, insurance pensions of non-working pensioners - in 15,5 thousands. Finally 2020 year, the size of insurance pensions is projected at the level 15,5 thousands, insurance pensions of non-working pensioners - 16,4 thousand rubles.
“Unfortunately, the authors of the bills for the return of universal indexation were well aware, that the initiative will not be approved. It is clearly untimely because of its high cost and the need to address more important issues first.. However, the bills were not submitted by chance.. We are gradually entering a new electoral cycle, and individual politicians tend to appear in a favorable light for them. That's why they do some kind of PR moves.
Probability, that in the foreseeable future universal indexing will return, there is. But for this it is necessary to wait for more favorable economic conditions.. Least, stability should come and there should be a steady increase in GDP by 3-4% per year for several years. That is, the solution of the problem must be approached systematically.”, – concludes Konstantin Ordov.
Max Boot
