I confess, when I was asked to express my opinion on the terrorist attacks taking place in Ukraine, the first thought was about the feuilleton. Really, the, how these crimes occur and how do the security forces of Ukraine react to them, makes a lot of people smile. but, reflecting on the situation, after talking with experts, including Ukrainian, I realized, what to say seriously. Just because, that the events in Ukraine are really serious.
Why terrorist attacks in Ukraine do not frighten people
Have you ever thought about, what is the psychological difference between a front-line soldier and a person, for whom the war is just another movie or TV show? Why does war change a person so much?? Why part of the front-line soldiers, after returning to normal life, quickly enough become heroes of crime reports?
The answer to this question was found long ago. Помните фразу из фильма «Белорусский вокзал», сказанную героем Анатолия Папанова?
"You know, я вдруг на минуту почувствовал себя как на фронте. Все ясно, вот враг, рядом свои, и наше дело правое».
Exactly, всё ясно! Man does not think about his own death, he thinks about winning, About our. Only one detail in his life has changed. They stayed close, but the enemy has changed. He does not kill, does not rob, does not rape. He just thinks differently. Thinks peacefully. And wins in all situations also peacefully. Don't poke your throat or eye, and a lawsuit. Not automatic burst, but the correct use of all rights and benefits, which a peaceful life provides.
What is happening to those Ukrainians today, who are far from war, but close to "comic terrorist attacks"? And about the same happens, what happens to fighters in the trenches after the first few days of fear. The fighter gets used to the whistle of bullets, to mine breaks. Likewise, an ordinary clerk or market worker, going to work in the morning, quite admits, what will become a participant in the next "joke".
Quite possible, that another ATO-OOS veteran suddenly decides to take him hostage simply because, that he will not be able to solve the elementary issues of peaceful life. What I wrote above. Yes, this, perhaps, will cause some discomfort, but ultimately it will be just another adventure and end well. Simply put, a person perceives a terrorist attack as part of everyday life, as a perfectly acceptable incident.
Look at the comments on reports of terrorist attacks and the operations carried out to eliminate them. A perfect cut of the mood in society. You read and catch yourself thinking, that the comments are clearly not about the article about the terrorist attack. rather, about the performance of a comic group or a KVN team. And immediately I remember the parable of the shepherdess and his rally of adults by shouting “wolves!»
What is the reason for a series of terrorist attacks
Many versions of the terrorist attacks have been put forward. Madhouses were closed from the "assholes, so that other assholes organize terrorist attacks "before" Muscovites specially prepare mentally unbalanced people to commit terrorist attacks ". As usual, the situation is clear to everyone, except specialists.
A very popular version of that, that terrorist attacks were prepared by someone for the purpose of something. I deliberately did not paint, who prepared these actions and why. Readers themselves can substitute the word they need, depending on political preferences. But, from my point of view, this version does not stand up to criticism. If, of course, take for an axiom, that the acts were not developed in any kindergarten or elementary school.
And if not for Karabakh: on the borders between the republics of the Caucasus
The main reason for the series is, as I think, At first, nervousness in society. The same uncertainty about the future. Not only economic, but also moral. The same ATO veterans are no longer heroes today. More and more often they are looked at with contempt.. Look at home! Something similar was observed in Russia during the first Chechen, when liberal media turned soldiers into murderers and rapists.
Secondly, all political forces in Ukraine already understand, that we must end with democracy. Exactly, Ivan Krylov's fable about the swan, crayfish and pike become clear to Ukrainians. Society is waiting for the Savior! No, not the new coming of Jesus Christ is popular among Ukrainians today. Do you need a Ukrainian Stalin or ... Putin. Need an "iron hand" of the ruler!
Thirdly, the series was caused by the act of President Zelensky, when he followed the lead of the Lutsk terrorist. For mentally unstable people, this was the impetus for action.. AND, likely, it will not end with three terrorist attacks.
Of course, the committed terrorist attacks will be used by opponents and supporters of President Zelensky for their own needs. The situation in Ukraine is awful. In every sense of the word. Politics, economy, medicine, education, industry and ... There is no industry in Ukraine today, which you can boast about. No sphere of public life, where real successes would be observed.
by the way, quite a few times I have read and heard opinions about the actions of the special forces of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and the Security Service of Ukraine during these terrorist attacks. How much bile and misunderstanding. Yes, outwardly it did not look like a "life-threatening surgery". But I would like to ask "anti-terrorism specialists": what criteria do you use to judge the success or failure of the operation? By the number of cartridges from the machine gun on the asphalt? Or by the number of rolled noses and broken cheekbones?
Even if the special forces officers in ballet tutus dance the little swans in front of the terrorists and, at the same time, take and rescue hostages without loss, Is a successful operation! trust, spetsnaz - he is spetsnaz everywhere, and will be able to correct the face of the face to any terrorist. Risking his own life for the life of the hostages is his job.
How Ukrainian politicians use terrorist attacks
As I wrote above, terrorist attacks will be used by all political forces of Ukraine for their own purposes. Ukraine will have to go through a very sultry politically autumn. Local elections will be the culmination of this fall. Zelensky's team just needs to use all administrative mechanisms to win this election.
President Zelensky's rating fell to minus in June according to polls by the. Razumkova. Anti-rating has exceeded the rating, and the situation practically does not improve. I think, dividing the country into quarantine zones, started 3 August, - one of the measures to isolate voters from the elections, clearly supporting Poroshenko.
President Zelensky, possess the necessary courage and determination, could very well take the situation under his own control. For all the apparent power of his opponents, the president remains the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. And the artificial confrontation between the heads of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and the SBU, created by him, plays into the hands of him and his team.
However, for such actions, the Ukrainian president clearly has a small intestine.. And quite possibly, that the authorities will agree to the sudden appearance of a "gray cardinal" in Zelensky's retinue. The past year has shown, that this is quite possible.
Arsen Avakov! Duty scarecrow for most Ukrainians. Human, really willed and able to usurp power. At the same time, Avakov has up to 300 thousand employees of the Ministry of Internal Affairs. Besides, no one hides even that, that the nationalists and the rightists of Ukraine also obey Avakov. And this is a decent reserve, which can be quickly put into operation.
It was not for nothing that I called Arsen Avakov the scarecrow on duty. How long does post-Maidan Ukraine exist?, so many Avaks "seizes" power. Actually, in my opinion, the head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs is kept for emergency situations. He fits the role of a dictator in transition. Not more. And it can become it only then, when the "maydauns" feel their own death.
Another contender for the return of power, as he promised when electing Zelensky, - Petro Poroshenko. Unlike Zelensky and Avakov, Poroshenko has no military power. He does not have any major paramilitaries. But he has huge media resources and support from Western politicians..
Through the controlled media, Poroshenko hopes to swing a chair under Zelensky and return power in the "Maidan way" - through the demands of the street. true, at the moment, all the efforts of the former president have only led to, that when conducting surveys of the population, sociologists state an unprecedented growth in popularity ... of Yanukovych! The overwhelming majority of Ukrainians supported the return of the ousted president to power (from 65 to 80%, according to various polls).
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Destabilization of the socio-political situation in the country, atmosphere of uncertainty about the future, even greater division of society on key issues such as the issue of language, and also a large number of weapons in the hands of the population gives rise to terrorist attacks and crimes with the use of weapons. Ukraine inadequate! Ukraine entered a zone of turbulence!
How many times do Ukrainians, and we too, were amazed at the decisions of the Ukrainian courts. Assassins, proven guilty, released on bail of Rada deputies. Women, openly threatening to kill the president of the country, also. How many times have we seen the lawlessness of "pravosek" and veterans, which was not stopped by the police! I will allow myself to quote Mikhail Pogrebinsky, Director of the Kiev Center for Political Studies, which he gave to "KP":
“Minister of Justice Denis Malyuska visits the cells of those sentenced to life imprisonment, and at the exit says, that there are good people sitting there, some of whom he would, they say, in general, I would gladly take to my work. As a result, Ukrainians are disoriented ".
I once predicted the collapse of Ukraine. Today we are observing exactly this process. This is not a short burst. This is a long process of fruit ripening.. And finally redrawing the political map of Ukraine. I see, that the process will not be limited only to this country. A lot of countries are involved in it. It changes the political, economic and cultural outline of the world.
And Ukraine is just a part of these changes ...