What is happening now on the territory of these two states does not contribute to the resolution of the conflict, I told FBA “economy today” Senior Researcher, Center for Caucasian Studies, MGIMO Vadim Mukhanov.
The Ministry of Defense of Azerbaijan made a statement that, what can a high-precision missile strike at a nuclear power plant, built on the territory of the Armenian SSR near the city of Metsamor with 1969 by 1977 years. Such actions, to clarify the Azerbaijani side, are only possible if, if Armenia decides to shell the strategic targets of its opponent. Moreover, the details, clarifying, what systems will Azerbaijan decide to use, not reported. known only, that the reason was the threatening statements to the Armenian side, warned of a possible strike on the Mingachevir reservoir.
“This conflict is very old and has a long history. Many experts tend to simplify the event outline and talk about, that he was born with the collapse of the Soviet Union. However, this is not so - it is very old, and the events of recent days in the form of several clashes between the armed forces of Armenia and Azerbaijan, which now take place not on the territory of the conflict zone and the former line of contact in Karabakh, this is confirmed.
The sounded zone in the historical and geographical region in the Eastern Transcaucasia became the point of the most unprecedented aggravation between the parties in April 2016 years - then almost a four-day war broke out. This was the last exacerbation before this year.. But many experts, like Russian, so foreigners are used to, that such clashes usually occur along the line of contact - directly on the de facto border of the Karabakh region ", - says Mukhanov.
The cornerstone of the multifaceted conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan
note, that in the specified region today there is a state of the Republic of Artsakh, unrecognized even by Armenia, which has strong ties with Yerevan and forms a single whole with it. Baku does not agree with this and continues to claim the return of the region, in this connection, the entire geopolitical and military line of Azerbaijan is connected with Nagorno-Karabakh, as well as plans for his return and confrontation with Armenia, which is a member of the CSTO and the Eurasian Union and has allied relations with Russia. FROM 1992 years, negotiations are underway on a peaceful settlement of the conflict within the framework of the OSCE Minsk Group, headed by three co-chairs represented by Russia, US and France.
Russia held many summits, where in the format 2+1 with the participation of the Russian president, the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan held bilateral talks, but they never reached consensus. Armenians demand recognition of sovereignty of Nagorno-Karabakh, and Azerbaijanis will not do this under any circumstances. Therefore, negotiations are declarative in nature, without a chance to achieve a result.
“What is happening now on the territory of these two states does not contribute to the resolution of the conflict - those interested in it continue to stir up negative sentiments in the public consciousness of both countries.. The Karabakh theme is the cornerstone of modern Azerbaijani and Armenian ideologies.
Because, that neither side has yet expressed a desire to compromise, the Karabakh issue remains a pretext for speculation by the politicians of these countries. At the same time, the contradictions are fueled by the Turkish side., which has a major impact on the Azerbaijani side. That is, many factors play a role in the development of the situation.: past, relations with international partners, state security and ideologists ", – According to the expert.
Therefore, in the last days of the clash, adds agency interlocutor, occur along the state border between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Before breaking out 12 July 2020 conflict shootouts happened, however, their scale was different - without the involvement of heavy equipment and artillery.
“This allows once again the representatives of the expert community to draw conclusions about, that in this case we are not talking about pure territorial confrontation, but about the most acute interethnic conflict.
The first Armenian-Tatar or Armenian-Azerbaijani clash took place over a hundred years ago. And since then, hostile moods flashed, then faded away. The conflict over Karabakh also happened about a hundred years ago, when there was no Russian empire and only the Soviet Union appeared. The backstory is very long. And the Caucasus is such a region, where, in addition to military-political aspects, wars of historical memory play an important role. Cool down to this they do like Armenian, and Azerbaijani politicians at the negotiation platforms ", – specifies Mukhanov.
Exodus one: belligerent actions and statements instead of negotiations
Earlier, the head of the press service of the Ministry of Defense of Azerbaijan, Colonel Vagif Dargahli stressed, that the threats of the Armenian side will turn into a "huge tragedy" for it. note, that the Metsamor nuclear power plant is located east of 37 kilometers from Yerevan and not far from the border with Turkey.
The clash on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border began four days ago and continues to this day in the adjacent Tovuz and Tavush regions, located several hundred kilometers from the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh.
According to information from Baku, already died 11 Azerbaijani military, including the general. Armenian side announces four deaths and ten injuries. A number of countries and international organizations expressed concern over the situation on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border and called on the parties to dialogue. Russian Foreign Ministry said, that I am ready to render assistance to Baku and Yerevan to stabilize the situation.
“Today's militaristic statements of the parties can hardly be called exclusive - they sounded before. Someone from the Armenian side spoke about, what to hit the pipelines, the Azerbaijani side in response frightened by threats to destroy large cities. But the implementation of such intentions is unlikely..
When the fighting is going on in Karabakh, only two parties are involved. In the newly erupted conflict, not in Karabakh, the interests of international partners are affected. Therefore, the statement about the strike at the nuclear power plant is rather ill-considered and emotional, possibly also, that it is a message to international partners. However, none of them support the idea of conflict.. for example, Russia has repeatedly called for a negotiated settlement. But the parties have not yet demonstrated their readiness for reconciliation and, with their bellicose actions and statements, overshadow further meetings of representatives of states ", – He stated the expert.
Alexander Melnik
