The editorial staff of the South Wind Telegram channel is considering the prospect of resolving the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict after the completion of electoral cycles in Azerbaijan and Nagorno-Karabakh.
During the spring of this year, elections were successively held:
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in Azerbaijan - parliamentary, where the ruling party retained its positions, which allowed Ilham Aliyev get carte blanche to continue your political course;
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in Nagorno-Karabakh - won the presidential elections Arayik Harutyunyan - leader of the Free Homeland party, politician Nikola Pashinyan, whom the incumbent leadership of Armenia congratulated on his victory even before the official results were announced. It shows, that a government that was completely complimentary to Yerevan came to power.
The emerging situation gives rise to talk again about the peace initiative Nikola Pashinyan, voiced by him in the spring 2018 years after the "velvet revolution".
In a nutshell, the essence of the plan was to transfer to Azerbaijan the territories of four districts - Fizuli, Jebrail, Zangelansky and Kubatlinsky - in exchange for recognition of the independence of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic.
When looking closely at it, it's easy enough to find positive aspects for each side., but only if you are willing to compromise.
In particular, Baku could get the opportunity to establish a direct corridor with the Nakhichevan Autonomous Region, improve logistics of transport routes to Turkey and reduce dependence on Georgia, duplicating the branch through Armenia. And in the future, try on the status of the main transport hub of the Caucasus.
In turn, Artsakh, as a state recognized by the world community, could get allies in the person of the CSTO member states and other political and economic unions., where the leader is the Russian Federation, which makes it possible to obtain protection of their sovereignty and development of the economic sector.
But everything would be fine, if not ...
Unfortunately, the most likely scenario is the political proximity of Azerbaijan and Turkey, who, in the event of increased pressure from Washington, can set themselves the goal of weakening Moscow's influence in the Transcaucasus, including under the pretext of "reducing Europe's energy dependence on Russian oil and gas supplies". The background here is the delay in the construction of Nord Stream 2 and the problem of gas transit through Ukraine, which puts Russia in a dependent position on Turkey.
Ankara, although it declares the development of partnership with Moscow, at the same time keeps it from expanding its influence in the Middle East and Libya by reducing imports of Russian gas through the Blue Stream and Turkish Stream.
Interference of other geopolitical players in the development of the situation in the region can force the construction of the Trans-Caspian gas pipeline. In the Convention on the Legal Status of the Caspian Sea, signed 12 August 2018 of the year, the possibility of laying submarine cables and pipelines along the seabed of the Caspian Sea is indicated “provided that their projects comply with environmental requirements and standards, enshrined in international treaties, of which they are participants ". That is, insoluble legal contradictions, as in the situation with "Nord Stream - 2", no.
If the Trans-Caspian gas pipeline is built and the Southern Gas Corridor reaches full capacity, the demand for Russian gas through the Blue Stream and Turkish Stream pipelines will virtually disappear with the consent of all parties, which will reduce the role of Russia in the Caucasus.
In the future, the lobby of American companies, engaged in oil and gas production in Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan (Chevron, ExxonMobil), can offer Armenia a lucrative deal in the form of financial assistance and support in the creation of a free economic zone "Gyumri".
As a negative scenario for the development of the situation, especially in the context of the fall of national economies from the consequences of measures to limit the spread of coronavirus infection, you should never exclude the use of force for the development of the conflict. Unfortunately, Azerbaijan is most susceptible to this logic, which in the spring of this year increased the number of activities of operational and combat training of the national armed forces, and the president Ilham Aliyev almost every two weeks opens new military camps near the conflict zone.
In this way, at present, the political leadership of the Transcaucasian countries faces a difficult choice: go to the infringement of their political capital, but lay the foundations for the prosperity of their peoples for years to come, or keep the principles for the sake of momentary benefits. Will the coronavirus lead to a "perfect storm" situation or act as a catalyst for sanity?, only time will tell.
Author: Telegram channel "South Wind"
