begining 2020 year was rich in "funny" news. Here and distribution coronavirus COVID-19, and the threat of proliferation of military conflict in Syria because of the actions of Turkey, and a sharp decline in oil prices with a consequent reduction in the ruble.
Depreciation of the ruble, we have experienced more than once, can, and this time will cost, although joy, of course, few. Nuclear war because Turkey is also unlikely to start - the great powers do not sacrifice themselves for the Allied. But on the coronavirus dwell more in detail.
rates of
The first cases of infection of coronavirus COVID-19 were found in late December 2019 in the city of Wuhan, Hubei Province of central China. Already 31 December 2019 , the Chinese authorities informed the World Health Organization (TRAIN) of unknown pneumonia outbreak. On 12.03.2020 g. it was recorded 126 672 coronavirus infections COVID-19, It has recovered 68 305 human, died 4 641 human. At a meeting of the Committee for Emergency Situations of the WHO 30 January 2020 , the outbreak of a new coronavirus was declared an emergency in the field of public health, having international significance
In Russia, the first cases were recorded by a coronavirus 31 January 2020 of the year. Sick were residents of China. On 12.03.2020 g. recorded in Russia 28 infected with coronavirus COVID-19.
Distribution Map coronavirus
The dynamics of changes in the number of cases and recovered
The main index, characterizing the degree of infectiousness of the virus, is an basic reproductive number - the expected number of secondary cases of infection, infection caused by a, ie the number of people, which infects an average of one patient. By the latest estimates, for coronavirus COVID-19 the figure is about 2-4 (rate increased from the end of January to the current time). for comparison: from the influenza virus, the figure is 1,3-2.
The base for any number of reproductive disorders
According to the WHO website, incubation period (the period of time between infection and the appearance of clinical symptoms of the disease virus COVID-19) It varies between 1 to 14 days and most often is about five days. These estimates will be refined as new information becomes available, because there is information, that this period may be up to 28 days.
Infectiousness carrier in the absence of symptoms promotes coronavirus. Human, contaminated coronavirus COVID-19, longer period is unaware of their illness, active contacts with others, and by the time the symptoms of the disease has time to infect a large number of people.
The cumulative number of confirmed cases of the disease COVID-19 in Italy
The cumulative number of confirmed cases of the disease COVID-19 in France
Confirmed cases by date of registration of cases COVID-19 disease in Italy
Confirmed cases by date of registration of cases COVID-19 disease in France
Note the similarity of the graphs increase in the number of cases in Italy and in France: isolated cases and in three or four weeks - a surge.
Extrapolating the situation in our country, It can be assumed, that there is a possibility of the situation in the same way, in this case we can expect a sharp increase in the diseased coronavirus COVID-19 for several weeks.
there is a suspicion, that a small number of cases in some countries, due either to the inability of their health systems to quickly identify cases, or unwillingness to recognize the leadership of these countries / voice problem. This primarily refers to the third world countries, where at the terrible overcrowding and unsanitary epidemic coronavirus like as not. Suffice it to recall the case in Turkmenistan:
In Ashgabat, the police fined the local resident, which appeared on the street with mask, to protect against coronavirus. According to the "Chronicles of Turkmenistan", police stopped a woman on the street under the pretext of check registration. making sure, that it's all right, they asked, Why she walks in the mask. Law enforcement officers have regarded her actions as a provocation and distrust of government quarantine. Citizen fined on 249 AZN (71$).
11 Martha 2020 , WHO announced the epidemic coronavirus COVID-19 2019-nCoV.
On the other hand, there is good news: Chinese authorities reported, that the peak of the spread of the coronavirus in the country was. The question is:, How realistic is this prediction, and in the, how other governments are able and willing to repeat stringent and effective measures to curb the spread of China's disease.
Mortality COVID-19
An important issue is the mortality rate COVID-19. In many respects it determines the attitude of the population to the disease: fear of death makes people (not all) more anxious about their health and medical recommendations.
The lethality of the disease is a statistical indicator, equal to the ratio of the number of deaths from any disease among recover from the disease for a certain time period. they, Who else is sick, not taken into account.
In this way, on 12.03.2020 g. COVID-average mortality of 19:
(the number of deaths / (the number of deaths + the amount recovered)) x 100% = (4 641 / (4 641 + 68 305)) x 100% = 6,4%,
wherein:
- in China: (3 172 / (3 172 + 62 892)) x 100% = 4,8%;
- in Italy: (827 / (827 + 1 045)) x 100% = 44,1%;
- Iran: (429 / (429 + 2 959)) x 100% = 12,7%;
- South Korea: (66 / (66 + 333)) x 100% = 16,5%;
- in Spain: (55 / (55 + 183)) x 100% = 23,1%.
Calculation as a whole and for each country separately conducted for the period of statistics collection.
If you count the number of mortality cases:
(the number of deaths / (the number of deaths + the number of cases)) x 100% = (4 641 / (4 641 + 128 343)) x 100% = 3,5%,
wherein:
- in China: (3 172 / (3 172 + 80 932)) x 100% = 3,8%;
- in Italy: (827 / (847 + 12 462)) x 100% = 6,2%;
- Iran: (429 / (429 + 10 075)) x 100% = 4,1%;
- South Korea: (66 / (66 + 7 869)) x 100% = 0,8%;
- in Spain: (55 / (55 + 2 277)) x 100% = 2,4%.
Calculation as a whole and for each country separately conducted for the period of statistics collection.
It should be understood, that mortality rates have become more realistic over time, When accumulated statistics, because patients may die much faster, than heal. Therefore, the most realistic, you can consider the death rate in China, in the order of 3,8-4,8%. Nevertheless, in the absence of proper medical care mortality rate can be significantly higher.
extensive study, which is based on data laid 72 000 confirmed cases in China, revealed, what in 80% cases, the disease is mild, at 14% cases - to severe, and 5% cases - in a very severe form. According to reports, This infection is most dangerous to the elderly and those with underlying medical conditions.
The mortality rate of coronavirus COVID-19 for different age groups
Presumably the average mortality COVID-19 will be about 3-6% and may be much higher in poor countries health services. for comparison: lethality of influenza virus - at least 1% (about 0,1 % in influenza viruses H2N2 and H3N2).
Threats and risks
Threats of coronavirus COVID-19 can be divided into three groups:
- health threat;
- drop in the quality of life;
- threat to the economy.
Let's start with the second point, because it is already evident. You can talk about, coronavirus that threat - this is fake, that COVID-19 is not more dangerous than the flu and that the coronavirus - it intrigues aspirin manufacturers. There is a reality that does not cancel.
epidemic threat seriously considered at different levels, It causes a reaction of special services and organizations, which produce reports, make statements and give recommendations for its prevention, including restrictive-prohibitive. As a result, communication stops, closed businesses, increased burden on the health system and social infrastructure. This causes a corresponding movement in the economy: falling stocks and currencies, rising prices and interest rates on loans.
For example, Russian stocks and the ruble fell after the announcement of the WHO pandemic.
Reducing the cost of Russian companies goes across all sectors of the economy
should not think, it is characteristic only for Russia. After the proliferation of epidemics in China the same thing happened with the Chinese companies' shares. According to Bloomberg, stock price more 2800 Chinese companies fell by more than 10%, Financial Times notes, that a drop in prices at the opening exchanges in Mainland China on Monday with a record 2007 of the year.
In the US, the situation is not better: New York Stock Exchange on Thursday, 12 Martha 2020 of the year, I experienced the largest decline since the "Black Monday" 1987 of the year, despite the decision of the Federal Reserve System (FRS), playing the role of the US Central Bank, distinguish 1,5 trillion. of dollars in short-term loans to stimulate the national economy and stabilize the financial system.
Direct influence COVID-19 virus in the Russian part of the economy in, and on citizens of other countries, I can be:
- reduction of wages;
- shortages of some goods;
- reducing the number of jobs;
- increase in the cost of goods and services.
Another factor in the impact of the virus COVID-19 will decrease the quality of life. Already, restrictions on international travel, canceled events with large crowds, arriving from abroad are placed on strict quarantine. In the future, you can expect a significant strengthening of the restrictive measures until the entry ban to work for entertainment facilities, curfew, closing quarantine of entire settlements.
In Russia, we can expect:
- a ban on tourist travel to several countries or the whole;
- cancellation of concerts, sporting events, etc.;
- home quarantine under suspicion of coronavirus;
- forced insulation under suspicion of coronavirus.
When the situation worsening:
- the closure of entertainment venues - restaurants, bars, shops, etc.;
- a ban on leaving the settlements (the establishment of quarantine zones).
Map of countries, limited to visit. There is no doubt, the number of such countries will increase
From the point of view of health is most at risk are the elderly, lethality coronavirus COVID-19 reaches 20%. Considering that, that many families live together with elderly relatives or close communicate, threat to the latter significantly increased because of the increased risk of infection. The good news is less impact coronavirus COVID-19 children, especially for younger children.
Panic and increase in the number of cases may lead to a shortage of essential medicines, perhaps, that the products and, as well as other essential goods. At the moment, there is already a significant shortage of personal protective equipment (YOU) - respirator, medical masks, etc.. P. because of their purchases in large quantities overseas buyers.
The most significant problem can be considered the possibility of exceeding the number of cases coronavirus COVID-19 over the capabilities of the health system in their treatment. In this case, you can expect an increase in mortality due to delays in care.
In this way, major threats to the health of Russians, arising from a coronavirus COVID-19, it could be considered:
- the delay in obtaining medical care with the disease or the complete absence of such opportunities;
- shortage of medicines, YOU, food and other vital goods;
- increased risk of death for elderly people.
Questions and answers
maybe, Russia's health care system will be able to contain the epidemic better, than that made in China, Italy and other countries? Our health care system is in normal time at the limit because of the shortage of doctors. My child examined by a female doctor, which surveyed more my childhood, and that was more 30 years ago. According to her,, wishing to come to her place special is not observed.
The doctors considered the normal daily duty with the subsequent change, ie. actually time length of the order 30-35 hours (sleep on duty in a major hospital is almost unreal, best case scenario 1-2 hours urыvkami).
When the disease SARS is easier to take a few days at his own expense, than standing in a day of 1-2 hours in line at the clinic of the hospital, risking to pick up something else, while pre-recorded most often only as of the date through 1-2 of the week, that is no longer relevant.
And now try to predict the situation in the hospitals by increasing the number of cases coronavirus COVID-19 to 1000-5000-10000 human…
Health optimization led to a massive drop in the closure of hospitals and quality medical care in Russia, experts say. For 2021-2022 years in the country in the number of hospitals may reach the level of the Russian Empire 1913 of the year
Unless the health system, the, can, We will save the government?
While the government no serious action is taken. No, there are some checks, Someone put in quarantine, but it is a drop in the sea. The incubation period is long, therefore, the number of infected increases imperceptibly. Quarantine after, as the epidemic has grown, much less effective, than to do it now.
Nothing like this is not done, "Panic" raise only independent media:
The threat of the spread of the coronavirus in Russia minimized, said Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin.
I would only understand, based on what is so optimistic statements?
On the other hand, perhaps, some measures still accepted. for example, on the site of the manufacturer of air treatment systems placed a classified:
At this point, a difficult situation with the shipment irradiators "Dezar" in connection with the threat of the spread of coronavirus infection. Irradiators commercially available NO. There is no model! In commercially available in stock, they will appear only after, how they will be provided with all the requirements of the majority of public places.
Would not the author of the article panic and the same deficit, from which the proposed insured? No. Most people, consciously or not, profess t. n. sheep's survival principle - ignoring threats, unlimited-optimistic perception of reality and is based on chance (luck). That is no reasonable action to improve their security, they will not take the default, and the materials on this topic are not interested in. Experience shows, change this pattern of behavior is almost impossible.
If there panic, the, likely, it will begin because the official announcement, eg, the closure of the city into quarantine, or something like that. Panic has nothing to do with a reasonable planning, Portrait of panic - a crowd, sweeps away everything from the shelves without regard to the, you need it or not. Panic and riots lead to even greater restrictions: komendantskomu time, card distribution of goods and the like.
It can be assumed, that the main factor deficiency of certain goods may be a supply them abroad for higher value and / or actions of speculators, buying goods for resale.
citizens, which will make reasonable advance procurement of essential drugs they need, food and other essentials, rather smooth consumption peak, which will have a period of maximum development of the epidemic.
Epidemic coronavirus - a pharmacist plot to cash in on ordinary people? To her, of course, WHO declared the pandemic is to, to Chelyabinsk Plant nonwovens boosted sales of medical masks ...
Epidemic coronavirus organized by the US against China? Play with biological weapons - it's like to set fire to an apartment building, to annoy a neighbor. But even so, what difference? The objective reality of this is in no way affect.
measures to prevent the epidemic coronavirus COVID-19
measures to prevent the spread of the epidemic coronavirus COVID-19 can and should be taken both at the national, and on a personal level.
At the state level it is necessary:
- now canceled nationwide all public events: concerts, Exhibitions, sporting events, etc., everything only through television and the Internet;
- encourage employers to formally possible to transfer employees to the home office operation (remote work at home);
- encourage employers to minimize the number of business trips, meetings, personal meetings - possible to organize issues remotely;
- cancel or limit training in schools and universities, as far as possible to move to a remote online training;
- recommend that parents do not take the children to kindergarten, if there is a possibility of someone leave;
- develop a list of recommendations on behavior in public places, determining signs of the disease, etc., and bring them to the public through the official media;
- strictly limit or prohibit the export of PPE (FFP3 respirators class and consumables for them, medical masks), appliances for cleaning and filtration of air, essential medicines, products;
- reduce or temporarily remove taxes and excise duties on goods production, a deficiency may occur due to the epidemic coronavirus;
- to prosecute for speculative trading by repeatedly overpriced PPE, medicines and other essentials;
- ensure equipment devices for cleaning and filtering air public institutions, school, nurseries, etc.;
- oblige large enterprises and companies at the federal level to equip the premises appliances for cleaning and air filtration;
- to organize the distribution of PPE population, antiseptics, a, perhaps, and limited product set with Rosrezerva warehouses, on the voting procedure for amendment of the Constitution of the Russian Federation (at the same time it will provide the necessary leadership turnout country);
- to consider and provide for rapid deployment mobile hospitals for the sick, including on the basis of covered stadiums and other sports facilities, concert halls and cinemas, etc., as well as ways to increase the capacity of existing health care facilities for the treatment of infected patients.
The irradiator-ultraviolet germicidal air recirculator wall ORUBn-3-3-KRONT ("Dezarate-3") It prevents the spread of such infections, like flu, ORZ, diphtheria, tuberculosis, and many others by disinfection of air in the room. The main task - to work in the premises, requiring constant maintenance of aseptic conditions in the presence of people. Recirculator also intended for use in areas with an increased risk of the spread of disease, airborne and airborne. The degree of decontamination: 99%, performance - 100 m³ during, power - 60 W
On a personal level:
- refuse to visit mass entertainment regardless of the bans at the state level;
- do not take the children to kindergarten, if you have someone to leave their homes;
- to limit the visiting children extra lessons, circles, sections, etc.. before the end of the epidemic;
- as far as possible to minimize contact in public transport and in public places;
- personal hygiene - be sure to wash hands immediately after going to public places, recommended use hand sanitizers and face;
- the deterioration of the situation outside the home constantly use PPE (respirators), perhaps, We should do it now, and for diseases of any of the family members to use them at home;
- purchase respirators Class FFP3, and who can afford, half-mask or full face mask with appropriate filters, explore methods of disinfection for continuous use (FAQ on the selection of respirators), you can immediately tell, it is now not just be able to do anywhere, and prices have already risen in 4-10 time. Are the most effective full-face masks, with half masks and respirators is necessary to use protective eyewear, as the virus infects efficiently Eye;
Respirators class FFP3
The full face mask and the half-mask with particle filter - this is the best means for protection against coronavirus infection COVID-19
- a medical mask for healthy people are virtually useless, they are necessary in order, who are already ill, to reduce the impact on others. Use medical masks can only, in the absence of other PPE: WHO recommendations on the use of masks among the population, under the care of the sick at home and medical assistance in the context of the outbreak of a new coronavirus (2019-nKoV);
- create the necessary margin for the personal use of drugs, eg, if someone drinks a tablet from a chronic disease, then create their stock on 2-3 of the month, as well as a similar margin simple, inexpensive drugs - antipyretic, anti-inflammatory. In addition to the risk of shortage of medicines necessary to minimize the number of visits to pharmacies in the period of threat, because they will be higher chances of encounter with sick COVID-19;
- to create a reserve of long-life products, and household goods for the period 2-3 months in the event of food shortages or restrictions on the movement of (quarantine);
- based on the financial capacity to consider the possibility of purchasing domestic air purifier with the HEPA filter and UV filter, able to reduce the likelihood of transmission between family members (FAQ on the selection of air purifiers);
- to limit spending on luxury goods and other goods, non-essential goods;
- do not panic, to create reserves to use the principles of reasonable sufficiency, show no aggression towards the sick and potentially ill people and prevent such aggression, exhibit other, be careful with respect to the health of their loved ones.
WHO recommendations for care of patients with mild disease, presumably caused by a new coronavirus COVID-19.
Andrei Mitrofanov
