strategic transformation
With the geographical position of Turkey as anyone lucky, probably. One side, a country joins Europe and Asia, and the other has an output directly to the four seas. In many ways, it is from the political and military prosperity in this country depends on peace in the Black Sea region, Middle East and Mediterranean. but, Turkey is the collective West openly considered by the state, "second-class", which is very painful perceived as the country's leadership, and the majority of the population. Notably, that the first stirrings of an ambitious revival of Turkey appeared in the period of the Soviet Union. It was at this time President Ozal said,: "Turkic world will become a dominant factor in Eurasia from the Balkans to the Great Wall of China".
Ahmet Davutoglu – chief ideologist “Neo-Ottomanism”
The Turks are not shunned to support separatists in the Russian Caucasus, as well as to develop strong ties with the former Soviet republics, sometimes in defiance of Russia. In the early 90s there was a "magnetic" concept in Turkey, whereby the country to be considered as the center of gravity of the former Union Republics. We do not forget the 90 years of the Turks and the West (still refers to the country to NATO), periodically reminding me of themselves for membership in the various structures (first of all, in the European Union). But with the beginning of the 2000s, things gradually began to change. On the political front, there was a Crimean Tatar by birth and Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, who wrote a landmark work "Strategic Depth". With his appearance in the country remembered, that once Turkey was a powerful country, in which at the beginning of the XX century all away. And there was a major political and ideological trends in the country - "neo-Ottomanism" ("New Ottomanism»). foundation “new osmanyzma” It is four principles: blood, Ottoman thinking, Soil and language. Blood and language - is the attention and focus, first of all, on Turkic peoples.
Erdogan, – superprezident the Republic of Turkey
Soil and Ottoman mindset translate vector foreign policy to a new level, focused on the former territories of the Ottoman Empire and surrounding states. It is supposed to include all the economic and political resources to bring Turkey into the supra-regional leaders. With this guide opaque hints, in which case it may be more drastic scenarios of solving problems. One example is the closure of the Turkish border with Armenia, support for the Bosnian Muslims, Kosovo recognition, uneconomical enmity with Israel, Su-24 destruction of the Russian aircraft, and power operation on Syrian territory.
imperial ambitions
Modern Turkey under Erdogan moves in a typical imperial ways of development, associated with active military and political expansion, which in some cases was a reminiscent of revanchism. It's simple enough - for the modernization of the imperial path will require significant resources, which Turkey does not. In many ways, this is due to cooling of relations with the United States and the European Union (especially after attempts coup 2016 of the year), and largely due to inefficient domestic economic policy of Erdogan. All forces are thrown on the foreign policy, enhancing regional (and even global) influence and access to energy. An important element of this work becomes indoctrination Turkish population, say openly that, that without the outward expansion of the good life will not. The situation has gone so far, that if now suddenly the opposition comes to power, something to change the course will have to wait a few years - the population does not understand the sudden retreat of the great covenants Erdogan. Greater concern should cause rotation ideology of the ruling Justice and Development Party on the course of moderate Islamism to frank Islamic fundamentalism. And every year in this current being drawn ever greater percentage of the population of our southern neighbor. Gradually, in the daily life of once secular country returned to Islamic practices, developing religious education, expanding the influence of the ulama, sheikhs and Jamaat in central, and the regional government. For the Turks to create public opinion, the new Turkey of Erdogan deserves to become a leader in the Muslim world, at least in its region.
Turkish Kremlin party
Flag Turkic Union
The economic component of the external influence also plays a great importance in the imperial model of development. Investors from Turkey are not just investing heavily in neighboring states and regions, but also create some interest groups, influencing public opinion and guidance. The most important objects are influence Central Asia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Ukraine, Moldova Gagauzia, Kosovo, Bosnia and Herzegovina, macedonia, as well as Russia's Tatarstan and Crimea. The Turkic commonwealth states (Turkic Council), which is trying to position as an analogue of the European Union to Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan and Kyrgyzstan. This so-called "soft power", the purpose of which is the economic and political dependence of neighboring countries, which later can be presented territorial claims, finally, to regain previously lost areas.
Appear candid vassals Turkey, speaking openly: "Turkey - is Kosovo. Kosovo - Turkey is ". The words of the Foreign Minister of Kosovo Hashim Thaci. With Azerbaijan the situation is similar - there in the course of the phrase "one nation, two states ". Levant and the Maghreb countries also do not give up a kind of Turkish aid, not realizing until the end, where it can cause. Do not consider it impossible in the Turkish government, and the acquisition of new land, who had never belonged to the Ottomans. So, Russian security services in time and resolutely stopped too zealous activity of Turkish non-profit organizations in the Volga region. Activists of the Justice and Development Party openly call themselves «Osmanli torunu», that is, "the heirs of the Ottoman Empire". These revanchist cleverly disguised previously cited, the ideology of "soft power".
but in 2011 , this "soft power" suddenly became quite a "hard" in the wake of the riots in Syria. Erdogan unexpectedly realized, that his chance came, Assad is about to fall, and a large piece of Syrian territory may well become part of Turkey. Hiding behind the ideas of protecting the civilian population Turcoman, and create a corridor for refugees, Turks dramatically increased military activity in the region. In many ways Turkey, along with Saudi Arabia and Qatar to create a powerful resistance to the official authorities in Syria. As a result, especially anything good happened, but the prospect of a Kurdish quasi-state near the border has become quite a possible. And then in turn went to the military equipment in a transaction with beautiful names "Shield Euphrates" and "olive branch".
No money for the army
Without the powerful armed forces the Turkish leadership does not have to rely on an effective imperial policy. But with this complexity. With Americans quarrel due Gülen and C-400, which negatively affected the economic situation (although finally break all US contacts, nevertheless, It will not be because of the Incirlik base). Centralization of power and the economy as much wealth does not bring - the country's rising unemployment, standard of living expected declines. Eventually, on 2019 year defense budget cut to 8,3 billion, while a year earlier it was 11,1 billion. Fell and the quality of the units – at 2018 He was fired more 6,2 thousands of officers, suspected coup in preparation 2016 year. But even in such circumstances, the Turkish leadership is planning to upgrade its armed forces by the 2033 year. That also includes the modernization and reform program?
“Altai” – Turkey's main hope of a poor defense budget
First of all, is to create a highly mobile ground units and increasing the amphibious assault capabilities of naval forces. To do this will reduce the number of ground forces, at the same time equipping them with the latest technology, as well as to put into operation every year one or two tank landing ship of the "Anadolu". Important is the creation of the shock brigades of commandos, imprisoned at the elimination of Kurdish separatism and active output beyond Turkey to Iraq and Syria. It planned after heavy tank losses in the "Shield of the Euphrates" and "olive branch" to urgently update the fleet of armored vehicles. To accelerate the adoption of this system in the long-awaited "Altai".
Ukrainian military fired on the territory of the DNI 55 min
In the beginning of May 2019 , the water was lowered first amphibious assault ship L400 “Anadolu”, built by order of the Turkish military establishment
Notably, that country's air force is given, in fact, secondary role fire support for ground tactical groups in low-intensity conflicts. Therefore, the plans only C-130 modernization and procurement and A-400M. maybe, that's why the Turks so easily moved the rejection of the F-35, and the prospect of buying a Russian Su-57 can only be a demonstrative political action to fellow NATO.
Revanchist concept of "soft power" in many ways pushes Turkey into an economic and political stalemate, which can cause unpredictable leadership convulsions, attack similar to the Russian Su-24. One can only hope, Erdogan and his entourage remember causes, why the Ottoman Empire into a modern Turkey.
Yevgeny Fyodorov
