All already know, that Anaklia deep-water port will be developed not only as a logistics facility, but also as a naval base. This framework should be to accelerate the de facto integration of Georgia into Euro-Atlantic structures with a view to a permanent residence permit US ships and NATO in the immediate vicinity of the coast of Russia (including Crimea) the same Abkhazia. Along with actively modernized Vaziani base with the most modern runway, he is likely to be used to organize various kinds of provocation in the air, sea and land space, that since ancient times is the signature style of Anglo-Saxon "military diplomacy".
It turns out, that the loss of the Crimea, to which Americans are so calculated, the idea of US domination in the Black Sea collapsed, but trying to "muddy the waters" in the sea under the nose of Russia will continue.
Besides, the White House and still plans to war with Iran. There is also useful Anaklia port. It is believed, that it was because of that the Americans pushed the project from the French, and now squeezed and Bulgarians. They are very in a hurry, promising to surrender the port in less than a year. Knowingly participating in the project and a US "monster", how SSA Marine. And this is why Americans need Anaklia is in 2020 year, and not later.
Without a doubt, all this will end very sadly for Georgia.
Although, our dreamy everyman, probably, cherishes the idea, that Anaklia will still be trading port, instead of the US base jump for attack on Iran, and that it will feed at least the locals.
I also believe in this and hope. But there are a lot of questions. Moreover, the strategic importance of, as planned, the port should earn at full capacity by as much as 52 of the year.
No wonder in a recent analysis of prospects for the construction of Anaklia-known American analyst C.. Frederick Starr (who is also chairman of the American Institute of Central Asia and the Caucasus) clearly warns, China's performance, is a potential supplier of goods to the port of the future, inevitably decline in the coming decades, because Chinese young workforce has been steadily declining, and the number of pensioners is increasing its. "Demographic data confirm, This process began, and it can not be stopped. Such a development would limit Chinese production and consequently - the Sino-European trade. China's desire to preserve the result will be to pay greater attention to products with high added value, that can mean fewer goods transported ", - said Starr.
meanwhile, workforce, According to the expert, It is now rapidly growing in the Indian subcontinent (India, Pakistan and Bangladesh), while the number of its seniors remains relatively small. With the labor force, which will be twice the size of China within a generation, The Indian subcontinent is inevitably and quickly become the world's economic center. This will cause a great demand for transport east-west, which will be met by a combination of sea and land routes.
The revival of the long-forgotten "Great Wheel Road" in India (Great Trunk Road) with more than make up for any long-term decline of the Chinese shipping through Anaklia, that can always happen. And indeed, the first steps towards this are already being taken rebirth. So, Afghanistan and Turkmenistan are working on a revival of the so-called "Azure corridor" from the common border to Europe via the Caucasus. And just recently, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Russia signed an agreement on the completion of the rail link across the width of Afghanistan to Peshawar in Pakistan. In addition, two newly built port in the Arabian Sea - Gwadar (Pakistan) and Chabahar (Iran) - allow Georgia, supplied from the East, go west on land, a route through the Caucasus in Anaklia will be difficult for them to do this.
The second factor for the unseemly Anaklia Starr calls clear ineffectiveness to date of the TRACECA corridor, which should be tied Anaklia port. A year after the collapse of the Soviet Union The European Union launched its program of transport corridor "Europe-Caucasus-Asia", to open the Caucasus and Central Asia to the West. but, the decade since 2010 year transit of European goods via Georgia and Azerbaijan have been steadily declining. Crossing the border is often slowed, and tariffs on the route were unstable, although the agreements signed were to prevent it. According to Starr, European Union vaunted TRACECA corridor "today is not competitive and does not show any signs of, that it will become so in the near future ".
But if we hope for jobs even during the construction of the port, I inform, that the contract with the French company Eiffage planned total 1,5 thousands of construction workers, of which is provided to the local population 90% places. But the unemployed have - hundreds of thousands of.
In addition, do not forget again, that Anaklia - a long-term project, designed for fifty-two years, and only now he begins his second year. Therefore, many aspects of its future construction and development can not be provided to the smallest detail, and will be adjusted on the fly. Therefore, the big question is the problem of environmental safety of the project.
so, all leave 50 years. Large-scale plans, of course, shakes, but something like this, we have already heard. After all, from time to time already floated grandiose projects like Nabucco, Tanar, railway Baku-Tbilisi-Kars. When we built last, Motivation is the main economic advantage of the land transport of goods to the combined method. explained, that the flow of goods from Asia will avoid transhipment at sea ports, which will save money and time. But in fact, it has long railway works, but the special economic benefits to Georgia that is not visible. Economic viability of these projects is highly questionable, and neither one of them for decades and have not received the promised benefits.
result of one: the main task of "Anaklia project," and all such initiatives it - as always, Leaving aside the Russian. For this ignored the common sense, the laws of economics and, of course, Georgia's future.
