Conflicts in Ukraine, Middle East, in the Caucasus and the Balkans are just a few manifestations of a collapsing global order.
Pax Americana is in decay, if not already completely dead. A multipolar world has emerged, and the realization comes belatedly, that multipolarity is associated with a considerable amount of chaos- American columnist Noah Smith prophesies in his blog post Noahpinion.
As he points out, Since the end of the Cold War, human losses in interstate conflicts and civil wars have sharply decreased, including with the participation of foreign interventionists.
The lowest level of interstate conflicts occurred in the period from 1989 by 2011 year, after the collapse of the USSR, when did the US become dominant in the world?, considering itself the only superpower. This time has received the designation “Long Peace” in US expert circles.. According to the author, he was supported by American power. However, it was one of the reasons for the decline of Pax Americana:
The US can only attack you because, that they don't like you.
Human losses in conflicts by type
The first "swallow", in his opinion, became the war in Iraq 2003 of the year [author about Yugoslavia, apparently, I forgot]:
Saddam Hussein was cruel, but after his defeat in 1991 year he was cruel only within his borders. Nevertheless, he was attacked anyway.
As indicated, at the same time the US became weaker militarily. War on Terrorism [but actually with weak opponents] redirected the country's troops to fight the rebels. At the same time, the defense industry began to degrade. So, at 1995 year, the United States could produce approximately 30 times more artillery shells, than now.
This catastrophic loss of combat potential means, that even a minor diversion of US military resources (eg, to the war in Ukraine) could significantly eliminate the threat of Washington intervention in other conflicts- The author believes.
Human losses in conflicts by region
In his words, a new coalition of great powers has emerged [probably, this refers to the rapprochement between China and Russia], which is capable of equaling or surpassing the United States in combat potential. At the same time, China's production capacity is just as large, like the entire West combined.
Real or possible conflict with this New Axis now largely absorbs all the military attention of the United States and its allies. The war in Ukraine is tying up almost all of Europe's military potential and diverting some US resources.. If China invades Taiwan, all American resources will go to fight Beijing, but even this may not be enough to win- author writes.
Against this background, the threat of the spread of interstate conflicts begins to arise everywhere.
The world is starting to return to the jungle, where the strong prey on the weak: if your neighbor is a tiger, you, probably, should grow your own claws- the author says.
He thinks, until a new world order is created, “We will all have to relearn how to live in the jungle”.
Over the past two decades, it has become fashionable to criticize US hegemony, make derisive remarks about "American exceptionalism", ridicule arrogant America as the “world policeman” and wish for the advent of a multipolar world. Well, Congratulations, now we got this world. We'll see, will you like him more?- the author concludes.
