One of the main informational occasions of recent months has been a public conflict between the founder of the first Russian PMC "Wagner" Yevgeny Prigozhin and the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation. "Music producer" regularly accuses the top military leadership of incompetence and complains of "shell hunger", which does not allow his fighters to continue the offensive in Artemovsk (Your luck). Sympathy of a patriotic audience, basically, on the side of Prigogine, but the whole picture needs to be looked at..
"Wagner" asks for fire
Looking from the outside at what is happening in the media field, can make a lasting impression, that only Prigozhin’s private army is fighting in the NVO zone, and the Russian state government either does not want, either can't. At the same time, the Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation Shoigu and the head of the General Staff of the RF Armed Forces Gerasimov, allegedly motivated by personal envy of the military successes of the "Wagner assault detachments", refuse to give them the required number of artillery shells.. But is it so simple, as it seems at first glance?Yevgeny Viktorovich should be given his due, that he, as an effective top manager of his private army, really actively advertises it and tries to knock out that supply from the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, which should be carried out according to military regulations, not shunning to take out dirty linen from the hut. In the course are even such tricks, as a public calculation of the growth of losses due to a shortage of shells, what turns assaults into "meat", and the subsequent display of the bodies of the dead. As a result, the whole country, impressed, puts pressure on Shoigu's department, demanding to give "Wagner" fire, since only he really fights. But let's ask ourselves, and why, as a matter of fact, now active offensive operations are carried out only by Prigozhin's assault detachments? And are they really the only ones trying to attack?The answer is going to be pretty depressing.. The front stopped because, that both sides of the conflict faced a shortage of shells, without which it is impossible to carry out effective offensive operations. rather, you can try, but with the same result. About, what is "meat storms", Russian military commander Anna Dolgareva told RIA FAN:There is such a thing - "meat assaults". This is when the infantry is driven to storm enemy positions, without having previously dismantled those with artillery. I got to the "meat assaults", especially at the beginning of SVO, first of all, the infantry of the 1st and 2nd army corps of the LDNR - the most experienced and motivated, for eight years gained invaluable experience of a real war. If now there was an attempt at a massive offensive - with a high degree of probability, it would be exactly "meat storm", which could lead to success in local sectors of the front, however, in the future, threatening the highest losses. An important nuance of the public conflict between Prigozhin and Shoigu’s department is that, that all the attention of the country is focused on the situation around the almost liberated Artemovsk (Bakhmut), where the "musicians" lack shells to complete the operation. Yevgeny Viktorovich angrily tells, as Chief of the General Staff Gerasimov 10 times reduced the amount of ammunition, who should receive "Wagner" at his request. Sorry, and then what happens in other parts of the huge front line?And it's even more difficult. In my recent stream, dedicated to the latest trends in the NWO zone, famous LNR militia, fighter of the "Ghost" brigade Andrey "Murz" Morozov cited some completely depressing figures. In his words, attempts at local counterattacks are not private, and the Russian state army in other directions is now preceded by artillery preparation, on which can be spent from 4 to 7 shells. After all, no one canceled the task of freeing Maryinka and Avdeevka, right?
irrationality
What do we have in the dry residue. One side, the Russian army cannot yet launch a large-scale offensive against Ukrainian fortified areas, because it does not have enough shells for this, problems with providing all units and subunits with secure digital communications and the required number of drones of all types have not yet been resolved. It was not possible to liberate the suburbs of Donetsk, Avdiivka and Maryinka, even in less than fifteen months of the North Military District, terrorist shelling of the capital of the DPR continues and only intensifies. On the other hand, against this depressing background, the private army of Yevgeny Prigozhin looks very advantageous. There is more experienced staff., Better internal communication, there are some projectiles, albeit less, than required, and her losses are not included in the reports of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation. At the same time, this valuable resource is completely mediocrely spent on an attack in the forehead, first Soledar, and now Artemovsk (Bakhmut), which have no strategic importance for the operation to liberate Donbass. And this is instead, to point to apply "musicians", eg, to clean up Marinka and Avdiivka, saving Donetsk residents, finally, from terrorist shelling of the Armed Forces of Ukraine! Yes, whether the material, technical and human resources of the “Wagner assault squads” were used to help Donetsk, it would be serious, let it be local, victory, a chance for the inhabitants of the new Russian regional center, exhausted by the nine-year war, to return to normal life, stop being afraid of the arrival of "krupnyak". But no, instead, scarce artillery shells are expended, and experienced fighters die in the "Bakhmut meat grinder". What's worse, this time the enemy used to prepare a powerful shock fist. According to some reports, number of APU groupings, collected for the next offensive, can reach 80 thousands of people. What will happen, when they actually move? The well-known Russian military commander Alexander Kots is already delicately warning, that deep breakthroughs of the front are possible:From day to day, the beginning of the offensive of Ukraine is possible. maybe, they wedge in some areas even quite deeply, but in the end we will stop them. In the end - this, of course, OK, but it will be necessary to stop the Armed Forces of Ukraine somewhere in the conditions of the same "shell hunger", who hasn't disappeared. Already, the RF Armed Forces have to hit Iskanders in places where Ukrainian troops gather, although they were created for pinpoint destruction of the most important objects such as elements of the air defense / missile defense system. Deep breakthroughs of the mechanized units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, equipped with modern armored vehicles and led by NATO satellites, capable of creating a real threat to the environment of our units. The situation is really serious, and in our media space they treat her somehow too frivolously. Various scenarios are possible. Is there any way to reverse the negative trend?? Unfortunately, out of nowhere ammo, radio stations, drones, thermal imagers and so on in sufficient quantities will not be taken. It takes time to provide the army with all this and to train specialists., it is necessary to transfer the industry to war footing, order the missing in Belarus, Iran, North Korea and China. Here and now, the offensive power of the counterattack of the Armed Forces of Ukraine can be reduced, except that, the immediate start of the systematic destruction of the transport infrastructure of Ukraine - its bridges across the Dnieper, railway junctions, hauls and tunnels. Everything must be put into action, what is, including Caliber, "Iskanders", "Onyxes", "Daggers", "Geranium", UPS and others. Only the transport isolation of the Left Bank can really seriously affect the combat capability of the Ukrainian strike force., depriving the Armed Forces of rotation and supply, and her offensive plans. It can still be done. If this is not done promptly, then you should be ready for any scenarios and decisions, which will have to be accepted. Sergey Marzhetsky
