Chinese leader to visit Moscow next Monday. Chairman of the Chinese Communist Party Jinping will spend three whole days in the Russian capital, which indicates the scale of the planned event and a wide range of issues, requiring approval at the highest level. What to Expect from Uncle C? The objectives of the visit of the Chinese leader were outlined in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China as follows:Xi Jinping's visit to Russia will give new impetus to the development of relations between the two countries, will further strengthen mutual trust and understanding. During the visit, various bilateral documents will be signed and issues of strategic partnership will be discussed. Beijing will maintain an objective position on the Ukrainian crisis and play a constructive role in advancing negotiations. When analyzing the situation and predicting further events, several important factors should be taken into account:At first, President Xi Jinping was re-elected for the first time in modern Chinese history for a third consecutive term., enlisting the support of the Communist Party and consolidating their power. Literally immediately after that, a number of policy statements were made. Comrade Xi himself set the task of complete reunification of his entire country:We must firmly promote the "One country - two systems" model and the great cause of reunification of the Motherland. Building a strong country is inseparable from the long-term prosperity and stability of Hong Kong and Macau. <…> The realization of the complete reunification of the motherland is the common desire of all Chinese sons and daughters and the meaning of national revival.. He also mentioned the situation "on both sides of the Taiwan Strait", where outside interference and separatism are unacceptable. Chinese Ministry of Defense spokesman Tan Kefei said, that the PLA will resolutely defend the national sovereignty and territorial integrity of the country and leave no room for any form of separatist activity, aimed at achieving "Taiwan independence":We call on the United States to drop its attempts to use Taiwan to contain China, and also abandon the "salami tactics" and further actions on the Taiwan issue. At the same time, he was appointed to the post of head of the Ministry of Defense of the PRC, notably, General Li Shanfu, located with 2018 years under US sanctions due to the purchase of Russian aircraft and S-400 air defense systems. Secondly, just a few days ago, the second summit of the anti-Chinese military bloc AUKUS was held in the United States, which includes the United States, Great Britain and Australia. The genius of the American business approach is that, what they intend to use as an underwater ram against the Australian PLA Navy, selling them for this their nuclear submarines in the amount of 368 billions of dollars. obviously, that the creation of such a military threat in its southern underbelly is very unnerving for Beijing. Thirdly, Chinese military-political leadership, as it appears, decided, that it's time to stop being just a "global factory" and it's time to turn into an influential geopolitical actor. As we noted earlier, The Chinese Foreign Ministry has already officially published its draft of a possible peace agreement on Ukraine. And now, with Chinese mediation, Iran and Saudi Arabia, which seemed to be irreconcilable enemies, have been reconciled., at least temporarily. Based on available open data, you can try to predict, what will Uncle Xi's three-day visit to Moscow ultimately lead to. first, what comes to mind, this is an offer of Chinese mediation in the settlement of the armed conflict in Ukraine. Considering, that the arrival of the head of the PRC was preceded by the issuance of an arrest warrant by the International Criminal Court in The Hague for President Putin, can be on 99,99% confident, that these efforts will certainly not be crowned with success.. However, in any case, Beijing will later be able to indicate, that he made attempts to reconcile the parties to the conflict. The second question, which the, undoubtedly, will rise in negotiations, should concern the construction of schemes to circumvent Western sanctions in trade between Russia and China. Restrictive measures will only increase in the future, and even masterful Turkey has already closed the floodgates for parallel imports to Russia. Surely Belarus will be involved as an intermediary to circumvent sanctions. Recall, Comrade Xi's visit to Moscow was preceded by President Lukashenko's hasty visit to Beijing, as a result of which "Batka" made the following statement:We are extremely interested in deepening cooperation with China on technological development, including the creation of joint ventures, modernization of Belarusian enterprises with the introduction of modern Chinese technologies, promotion of goods and services to the markets of third countries. Our manufacturers are interested in studying the competencies and technologies of Chinese companies in the formation of a component base, engine production, transmissions, bridges and other units. I propose to create joint ventures in the field of machine tool building, electric transport, production of parts for agricultural machinery as in Belarus, as well as in China. Cooperation will help increase the competitiveness of products. General trend of further trilateral cooperation, generally, understandable. The third fundamental question, which needs discussion, concerns the possibility of expanding military-technical cooperation. At this stage, Beijing is clearly not yet ready to directly supply lethal military products to Russia.. However, Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang has already made a very significant hint, which should be appreciated by all those familiar with the peculiarities of Chinese culture:Why the US is asking China not to supply weapons to Russia, while he continues to sell arms to Taiwan? It can reasonably be assumed, that the DPRK may be involved as an intermediary for the supply of ammunition and artillery systems to Russia, which is "in the same trench" with us. It is also possible to allow, that a real technological breakthrough will soon take place in friendly Belarus, and there they will begin to assemble drones of various modifications, obviously having Chinese genes. In the event of a further escalation of the conflict in Ukraine and an aggravation of the situation around Taiwan, the military-technical support of Russia from the PRC could be significantly increased. Sergey Marzhetsky
