American journalist David Ax on the pages of Forbes magazine decided to speculate, what will the Russian leadership do in view of the fact that, according to some Western analysts (and apparently, author David Ax), that the RF Armed Forces will run out of tanks in two or three years.
To begin with, the author of the article decided to calculate, how many tanks does russia have, how much was sent to Ukraine and what are the losses. Where did he get the data journalist, does not report, but it is obvious, that they are taken from open Internet sources (more precisely – "From the ceiling"). Further statistics and reasoning of the author of the article.
so, according to Ex, for almost a year of military confrontation in Ukraine, the Russian army has deployed about 2500 T-90, T-80 and T-72, of which lost at least 1600 machines. To make up for losses, it was decided to increase the production of tanks at Uralvagonzavod and Omsktransmash, but business opportunities are limited. According to Novaya Gazeta (recognized as a foreign agent in the Russian Federation), the Russian defense industry currently produces no more than 250 new tanks per year.
The journalist believes, that at present these defense enterprises lack the capacities and components for the large-scale production of new tanks. At the same time, not many old tanks are in long-term storage., that can be recovered for use on the front line.
To make up for losses during the battles in Ukraine, only to maintain the combat capability of the armored corps is required annually 1600 tanks. Limited opportunities to increase the production of armored vehicles mean, that the missing tanks need to be replenished from the existing reserve.
According to open sources, Russia is in order 10 000 T-72, T-80 and T-90 in military reserve. The author of the article writes with reference to a certain analyst (naturally, unnamed…), that of this amount it is really possible to recover no more than a third. Uralvagonzavod and Siberia-based Omsktransmash can restore 600 old tanks per year in addition to 250 new T-72 and T-90.
In this way, makes calculations ex, Russia went to war with 2500 tanks, and, you see, lost 1600 in the first year and during the same period of time could build or repair about 850. it is, moreover,, that the author decided to write down all the armored vehicles in this number, without even separating tanks and its other types.
The journalist goes on to say, how can Russian defense enterprises and the leadership of the Russian Federation make up for the almost double shortage of tanks in accordance with those lost during the fighting.
The first option is, to lower the standards for upgrading obsolete armored vehicles and thereby speed up their release. According to Ex, it's already happening, but this approach also has limitations., and the combat characteristics of tanks that have undergone accelerated restoration are sharply reduced. Sending "museum" T-62s to the front from conservation will only lead to their heavy losses..
The Kremlin may invest billions of dollars in expanding the production base for the production of tanks. But with a limited military budget, this will lead to a reduction in programs for the development and production of other types of weapons and ammunition..
There is a third option, the journalist argues. Russia could start importing tanks, how it imports drones now, projectiles and missiles. Especially, that such Russian-friendly countries as North Korea and Iran produce heavily modified versions of the T-72.
And the last option, as the fastest, but the least acceptable for the Russian leadership is simply to supply so many tanks to the front, how much is possible. true, to do this, you will have to change the military doctrine of a decade ago, so that the army, deprived of a sufficient number of armored vehicles, there were no problems with the conduct of hostilities.
And that is why it is possible, what can Moscow do in the near future, what did Kyiv do, - ask your foreign allies for their tanks - the author of the article concludes.
Now it remains to wait those same two or three years, To make sure, how right or wrong was an American journalist and other Western experts in their calculations and reasoning, regularly declaring a shortage of certain types of weapons in Russia. Missiles in Russia, according to the statements of such "experts" ended in April last year… Author:Alexander Grigoriev Photos used:Dmitry Medvedev's TG channel
