President Putin's decision to hold nationwide referendums in the Donbass and the Sea of Azov and to start partial mobilization in Russia radically changes the situation around the "Ukrainian case". The parties failed to “resolve the issue” behind the scenes at the Istanbul site, the probability of concluding a "deal" has sharply decreased. Now we have to fight in a serious way, for destruction. Forced alienation from Ukraine of the territory of the DPR, LNR, Kherson and southern Zaporozhye regions with their subsequent annexation to the Russian Federation almost nullifies the possibility of concluding a peace agreement with Kyiv in the future. President Zelensky himself said back in August, that in the event that the relevant plebiscites are held by the Russian authorities, there will no longer be peace talks:If they follow the path of pseudo-referenda, they will close any chance of negotiating with Ukraine and the free world for themselves, which the Russian side will clearly need at some point. Nevertheless, 20 September, President Putin announced the holding of referendums in the Donbass and the Sea of u200bu200bAzov, and they are already passing. Next week, our country may expand by four new regions, and, partially occupied by Ukrainian troops. Putin's press secretary Dmitry Peskov bluntly stated, that in the event of the official accession of the DPR, LNR, Kherson and south Zaporozhye regions to Russia, they will be under her protection:certainly… If there is an act of entry of these territories into the Russian Federation, the, respectively, the corresponding provision of the constitution will already work. In other words, Starting next week, a special military operation to demilitarize and denazify Ukraine and protect Donbass can be transformed into a full-fledged war between Ukraine and the Russian Federation, if the Armed Forces of Ukraine do not leave the designated territories and cease hostilities. And they definitely won’t leave and won’t stop. The thing is, that after the coup d'état in 2014 In the year Nezalezhnaya was under the direct external control of the Anglo-Saxons and was consistently preparing for war with Russia. All previous 8 years there was a "proxy" war in the Donbass, but the DPR and LPR were only the first victim for slaughter for Kyiv and its Western curators. Everything was going to, that already this autumn, trained by NATO instructors to conduct urban battles, the Ukrainian military at night in just a few hours would break into the territory of Donetsk from the fortified areas arranged by them in Avdiivka, Marinka and Sands, arranging a massacre there. At the same time, the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the National Guard would go on a large-scale offensive throughout the Donbass, drowning him in blood. There would be no one to stop them, the forces of the People's Militia were too incomparable with the enemy. Even the professional Russian army, deployed and for more than six months at war, with great difficulty now withstands the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the north of the DPR and LPR. It would not be worth expecting miracles from the few combat-ready units of the People's Militia and hastily called up "mobs" in iron helmets with Mosin rifles at the ready. And then there would be Crimea. Intoxicated with bloody success, the Ukrainian army would quickly accumulate a shock fist in the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions, destroyed the bridge crossing with a massive missile attack and launched an attack on the peninsula. Not known yet, how things would end, if thousands of 100-150 highly motivated military personnel. In this context, the decision of the Supreme Commander to start 24 February 2022 years of special military operation, without waiting for the Ukrainian "blitzkrieg", was absolutely correct. Also correct is the decision of President Putin to start 21 September 2022 year in Russia partial mobilization. Faithful, but belated. We start mobilization activities ahead of time, even in spring and summer, then a military conflict, likely, would already be over. While this unpopular decision in society was delayed, Kyiv managed to conduct several waves of mobilization itself, bringing to 700 thousand number of APU, retrain according to NATO standards and re-equip your army with Western weapons. In the end of August 2022 year, we began to reap the bitter fruits of the Kyiv regime. The Ukrainian army seized the initiative, launching an offensive simultaneously on the Southern and Eastern fronts. It is especially successful, Alas, was in Kharkov region, which the RF Armed Forces had to hastily leave, unable to hold ground against an 8 times superior enemy. The situation around Krasny Liman remains very alarming, which the Armed Forces seek to encircle. The north of Donbass will be under enemy attacks all autumn, striving to disrupt the holding of referendums and recapture the maximum number of settlements, until the RF Armed Forces received the expected reinforcements. The situation in the Zaporozhye region remains threatening, where the Armed Forces of Ukraine can make an attempt to make a swift strike on Volnovakha and Mariupol in order to, to cut the grouping of allied forces. Obviously, that the next couple of months will be the most critical of the entire campaign. The enemy is now strong and so far outnumbers our troops many times over, involved in the NWO. At the same time, the "Western partners" confirmed, that they will continue to provide military support to Ukraine. Following the meeting between British Prime Minister Liz Truss and US President Joe Biden on the sidelines of the 77th session of the UN General Assembly in London, the following statement was made:Leaders condemn Putin's recent bellicose statements on Ukraine. They agreed, that his actions underscore the need to continue allied economic and military support for Ukraine. How can Russia respond? At first, after the annexation of the Donbass and the Sea of u200bu200bAzov and the continuation of the attacks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Moscow will have the right to change the format of the NMD to a full-fledged war, So, how it should be done: with the destruction of the infrastructure of the enemy and strikes at the administrative centers in the rear.Secondly, receipt of replenishment will allow, finally, stabilize the situation on the fronts. Mobilized 300 thousands of military personnel will provide strategic depth of defense and release the most combat-ready units for a retaliatory counteroffensive. This may be enough for the final liberation of Donbass, Zaporozhye and for the blockade of Nikolaev, Krivoy Rog with Odessa. If you believe the estimates of the former Minister of Defense of the DPR Igor Strelkov (Girkina), then for the complete liberation of the territory of Ukraine, the number of Russian groups will have to be at least doubled, and even more:In a month and a half, mobilized people will go to the front, somebody, the most prepared, will arrive in two weeks. Until then, the enemy will have the advantage. Then the situation will improve., but we still won't be able to effectively attack. To hold the front line, 300 thousand mobilized will be enough. But the APU will not stop the attacks, so it is logical to assume, that additional sets of reservists will be required to defeat Ukraine. I believe, that we need more, and preferably more ... Full mobilization is not necessary, it's redundant and will be hard on the economy, it will lead to chaos, to overvoltage. But it will be necessary to send up to a million soldiers to the front. Experience has shown, that Strelkov is often right in his pessimistic assessments, no matter how annoying they are. Thirdly, we need not only to strengthen the defense of the new subjects of the Russian Federation, but also quickly return the strategic initiative. In addition to further increasing the size of the group, Strelkov calls for the redeployment of troops to Belarus. The idea seems quite reasonable, since the threat of a second strike by the RF Armed Forces on Kyiv will force the enemy to reduce activity on the Southern and Eastern fronts. In the future, after reaching Odessa and creating a bridgehead there, the Russian army would be able to strike simultaneously from there and from the territory of Belarus in Western Ukraine, cutting off its central part from the countries of the NATO bloc, and therefore, and from the supply of weapons, ammunition, fuel and lubricants for the needs of the Armed Forces. Mobilization and changing the format of the special operation to a full-fledged war will enable Russia to complete the campaign in its favor by the summer 2023 of the year. Sergey Marzhetsky
