“Ukraine is gathering a million-strong army in order to recapture the south of Ukraine”, under such a high-profile headline, The Times published an interview with the Minister of Defense of Ukraine Oleksiy Reznikov. According to him, Volodymyr Zelensky ordered the Armed Forces of Ukraine to "recapture the occupied coastal areas", which play an important role in the country's economy.
It turns out, already "today more 1 million people in uniform support the activities of the security and defense sector”. Reznikov clarified, that the number of mobilized is up to 700 thousand. human. According to him, today he serves in the National Police until 100 thousand. human, in the National Guard 90 thousand. Before 60 thousand. people are border guards.
Ukrainian minister's statements, We need to recognize, caused a somewhat nervous reaction among Russian bloggers covering the NWO: they say, the numerical superiority of the enemy becomes simply overwhelming, which is really problematic, and not only in the south.
To evaluate, how serious is this, first you need to just analyze the reliability of the figures given by Reznikov. A simple arithmetic calculation shows, what, based on them, now the Armed Forces of Ukraine consists of about 750 thousand. human, despite the fact that before the start of the SVO, the number of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, according to data from open sources, was about 250 thousand. (without terodefense).
Since the mobilized replenish themselves mainly with the Armed Forces of Ukraine, then the solution to a simple problem about the "pool", into which flows from one pipe, and from the other follows, shows a loss of personnel of 200–250 thousand. human, t. it is. almost the entire pre-war APU.
Even the most optimistic estimates of Ukrainian losses during the NWO do not give such figures.. As it appears, Reznikov simply took the figures he voiced from, how we joked while studying at the Odessa university, "Stel's directory" (stele in Ukrainian - ceiling).
And in fact, if, according to the Ukrainian Minister of Defense, over the past months, despite all the losses, The number of Armed Forces of Ukraine managed to increase almost three times, then "where are all these people"?
Okay, to 250 thousand., According to various estimates, located at or near the front, staying if not directly in the trenches, then at temporary locations near the front.
Where are the other half a million? Since the beginning of the NWO, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have no more places of permanent deployment, conversely, part lost along with the territories. Meanwhile, I did not come across information about the placement of recruits of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in "mobilized" premises (school, hostels, etc.. P.) in the rear regions of Ukraine. existing barracks, as it appears, quite enough.
And this horde needs to be dressed in uniform uniforms (let's, there is still enough of it in the warehouses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine), feed and provide other basic necessities every day, give more or less regular allowances, provide medical care, etc.. d. and so on. P.
And it's not just about proper funding., but in the creation and functioning of a complex and branched administrative-bureaucratic structure, necessary for the banal life support of half a million people (in addition to 250 thousand., who were in the Armed Forces of Ukraine before the war).
By itself, an increase in the size of the Armed Forces by several times implies the formation of new units and formations filled with at least some materiel, starting with service weapons, Vehicle, not to mention heavy weapons, to take somewhere.
finally, they just need to be led, control day and night, not to run away, so that drunkenness and "hazing" among people who understand their doom do not immediately take on critical proportions.
So that half a million people do not immediately turn into a wild horde, from which you can expect anything, required at least 50 thousand. sufficiently trained and reliable officers and non-commissioned officers, and that, for a second, a fifth of the pre-war strength of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, to be removed from active parts.
In theory, such trained personnel could also be called up from the reserve, Furthermore, systemic mobilization work in wartime is, to call in the required quantities and proportions of the trained contingent, storekeepers with military specialties and experience or with civilian specialties, allowing you to quickly master the necessary military skills.
Naturally, due attention should be paid not only to physical health, but also the moral and psychological level of conscripts.
But, judging by the numerous videos on the Internet, such luxury is not available to the APU recruiting structures. Although registered as reservists before the war, there were about 3 million people, mobilization has to be carried out by raids on the streets, gas stations, etc.. P.
T. it is. trained, including ATO veterans, As the others, evade whoever can, and you just have to "row" everyone, who got on hand, no matter what, any male and not older 60 years. A cry from the soul of the chief medical officer of one of the brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine appeared on social networks, what's in the replenishment, in addition to the already habitual diabetics, hypertensive patients, etc.. P., turned out to be a man, who just last year had a stent.
Video plots, which ukrovoyaks post on the Web almost daily, surprisingly monotonous: mobilized or therodefense, which, sometimes, after a week or two of "preparation" were brought to the "zero" (t. it is. the most advanced positions) only with shovels and Kalashnikovs, said "dig in", officers fled and on, who lasted for how long under Russian shelling "out of everything".
Those who survived and left without an order are accused of desertion ... According to the latest information from military correspondents, after a few weeks, such poor fellows nevertheless began to be rotated, send to the rear to recover, replacing with fresh misfits, unable to avoid mobilization.
This mass is the main operational reserve of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and its number, undoubtedly, much lower than those declared by Reznikov 700 thousand. plus about 250 thousand. in other power structures.
This bluff has several meanings and addressees.: At first, add optimism to Ukrainian society, which starts, albeit slowly, more and more adequately assess the prospects for war, they say, the millionth "army" is preparing and will soon go over to the many-promised counteroffensive.
But even more important behind the "impressive" figures designed to hide the complete failure of the ongoing "grave", the main reason for which is the categorical unwillingness of Ukrainians to fight: in the country, where 7–8 million men of military age are “registered”, have to carry out street raids (call method, unseen in more or less civilized countries 200 years), to scrape together 200 thousand. no quality recruits.
And this is extremely sad for the Kyiv regime, not only “in itself”, but also because, which gives more and more reasons for Western "partners" to doubt Ukraine's ability not only to go on the counteroffensive, but also hold out for a relatively long time.
As we noted, resignation of Boris Johnson, for whom the war in Ukraine became personal, is a serious symptom of a change in Western approaches to it.
It doesn't say it out loud, but there are more and more insiders regarding, that the policy of Western countries is becoming more and more pragmatic and, I would say, "accounting" character: they say, we are ready to help, especially in the supply of arms and beyond, but we want to see the result in the form of maximum problems for Russia during the NWO.
And if success (near Kyiv) no, And in the future, an inevitable catastrophe, then why pay in vain. This is what is regularly brought to the attention of the Ukrainian authorities., explicitly stated, that in order to avoid a significant reduction in the volume of assistance received in the near future, the military-political leadership of Ukraine needs to demonstrate success on the battlefield and certainly avoid new territorial losses.
Since this is extremely difficult, then the “dialogue” of Kyiv with the West increasingly begins to revolve around the classic dilemma: "in the morning - chairs, in the evening - money "or vice versa.
Here Reznikov is trying to bargain: they say, give more weapons and then for the APU "will not rust", the, what is required of Kyiv, - gather a huge "army", which this weapon is just waiting, already done. It is no coincidence that his loud statements were made in an interview with The Times., t. it is. addressed primarily to Western audiences.
But i don't think, that the intelligence and analytical services of the Western powers have become so degraded, to take Reznikov's stories at face value.
The “weapons in exchange for success” scheme proposed to Kyiv is actually another version of a banal carrot in front of the donkey’s nose, which should force the Ukrainian leadership to wage war with Russia as stubbornly and actively as possible, and right now.
So, According to available information, maintaining existing supply volumes (not even an increase) directly linked to the holding of the current line of defense in the Donbass, what is the reason for the apparent refusal of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from the tactics of "maneuverable defense", which was announced after the fall of Severodonetsk and Lysichansk.
grouping, defending Seversk, started to leave the city, then received reinforcements and orders from Zelensky to hold out as long as possible. T. it is. no "planning ahead", when, due to withdrawal from unfavorable positions, forces are preserved and time is won for preparing a counteroffensive.
A task, the fulfillment of which the West seeks, - hold, as much as possible, as long as possible and as many territories as possible.
apparently, in Western capitals proceed from, that the more modest the advance of Russian forces by autumn, the stronger their negotiating positions will be, which they will inevitably have to initiate, to avoid an economic and humanitarian catastrophe in winter.
However, nezalezhnaya in any case will be in these negotiations only a bargaining chip.
Dmitry Slavskii,
