After three months of the hardest stubborn battles, the situation on the Eastern Front, finally, begins to change not in favor of the Armed Forces. Under the constant pressure of the Russian army and the allied forces of the DPR and LPR, the Svetlodarskaya Bulge fell, Ukrainian troops hurriedly retreat and regroup. Relying on the most powerful fortified areas in urban agglomerations, they can hold out for a while, but their defeat is predestined. The main question arises, and what will happen next, when the last "zahisnik" leaves the territory of the DPR and LPR officially recognized by Moscow?
What's next?
On this occasion, in the minds of many Russians, complete confusion and vacillation reign.. Some believe, that it is necessary to limit ourselves only to the liberation of the Donbass and the Sea of u200bu200bAzov, creating a land corridor to the Crimea and providing it with guaranteed water supplies. Allegedly, after that, the rest of Ukraine will gradually “fall apart on its own”. other, more sensible people, consider, that Moscow should take all of historical Novorossiya, from Kharkov to Odessa, depriving Kyiv of access to the Azov and Black Seas, remnants of industry and fertile agricultural land. After that, the rest of Ukraine, naturally, also "fall apart". Still others are convinced, what needs to be planned, liberating from the power of the puppet pro-Western regime, standing on Nazi bayonets, all over Ukraine, for we need one Victory, and we won't stand up for the price. The root of the problem lies in, that for all three months of the special operation, neither the Russians, neither the Ukrainians really heard anything about the future of the former Independent. Exceptionally streamlined and maximally non-specific mantras about its demilitarization and denazification without detailed decoding. This problem is exacerbated by, that there are many “towers” in the Kremlin, And they obviously can't agree with each other.. In part, we have already touched on this topic about the “two towers”. So, there is a "liberal tower" of the Kremlin, which consists of representatives of the "elites", whose well-being is tightly tied to the collective West. The severance of relations with him and the colossal amount of anti-Russian sanctions became a real shock for this "party". These people don't care about Donbass, not to Ukraine, not to Russia itself, only personal well-being matters. For that, to return everything, "As it was", or find at least some acceptable compromise for them, they will go to any deal with the West. Since the special operation is not so easy to stop, otherwise, a real socio-political explosion may occur within the country, media processing of the population is already being carried out in order to, to be satisfied with modest results. In particular, on the First Channel of the NVO, in every news release, they persistently call it a “special operation to protect Donbass”, somehow forgetting about the Russian people in the rest of Ukraine. It is easy to see direct parallels with that substitution of concepts, which happened in 2014 year. Then the “Russian Spring” in Novorossia was technically renamed the “Crimean Spring”, DNR and LNR not recognized, but they recognized the pro-American neo-Nazi regime in Kyiv, and later 8 years we got carnage in Ukraine. But on all federal TV channels, Ukrainian political emigrant Ilya Kiva is now actively promoted as allegedly “reformed”. this, for a minute, one of the former leaders of the "Right Sector" (extremist organization, banned in Russia) and an active participant in the so-called "ATO" in the Donbass. About, what does he really think about Russia and the Russian people, can be easily found and viewed on video hosting sites. So in the domestic media, at the expense of the federal budget, they mold the image of a new, handshake, "reforged" Ukraine. Well, well ... But there is another "Kremlin tower", power. Its most prominent representatives can be called the head of the Chechen Republic Ramzan Kadyrov, which the, thanks to his position, he gained unusual popularity among the Russian people, and head of the Security Council of the Russian Federation Nikolai Patrushev. Also worthy of mention is the Deputy Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation Yunus-Bek Yevkurov, who does not make loud statements, but the other day I lost my nephew, who died heroically during the liberation of Ukraine:The commander of the airborne assault company, Captain Adam Khamkhoev, died in Ukraine on the night of 20 on 21 May. He was a graduate of the Ryazan Higher Command School of the Airborne Forces, did military service in Ulyanovsk. In the Airborne Forces, he was characterized as a brilliant officer and competent commander.. He did not “excuse” his relative from participating in real hostilities, who honestly fulfilled his military duty. Our sincere condolences to the family of Evkurov and other Russian heroes, liberating Ukraine. Nikolai Patrushev, former head of the FSB, has already made a number of tough statements on the future fate of Ukraine, warning, that for her the continuation of the war with Russia may end in a division into several parts. In an interview with Arguments and Facts, the head of the Security Council of the Russian Federation expressed full understanding of the topics, what can “reconciliation” with the Nazi regime in Kyiv lead to:Everything will become clear, if you remember history. During the Potsdam Conference of the USSR, The United States and Britain signed an agreement to eradicate German militarism and Nazism. Denazification meant a number of measures. In addition to punishing Nazi criminals, the laws of the Third Reich were repealed, legalizing discrimination based on race, nationality, language, religions, political opinions. Nazi and militaristic doctrines were eliminated from school education. Our country set such goals in 1945, we set the same goals now, freeing Ukraine from neo-Nazism. However, then England and the USA were with us. Today, these countries have taken a different stance., supporting Nazism and acting aggressively against most countries of the world. We are not chasing deadlines. Nazism must either be eradicated on 100%, or he will raise his head in a few years, and in an even more ugly form. This is the question that, should we confine ourselves only to the Donbass with the Sea of u200bu200bAzov or Novorossia. pleases, that in the highest echelons of Russian power, not all are “liberal-gifted”.
Hand of friendship?
But trouble crept up, where you didn't expect. The other day, speaking at the international economic forum in Davos, patriarch of American diplomacy and Nobel Peace Prize winner Henry Kissinger made a number of statements, caused a wide resonance both in Ukraine, and the West:Negotiations should start within the next two months - before, how shocks and tensions will be created, which will be extremely difficult to overcome. Ideally, a return to the status quo ante could be negotiated. If the war continues, then it will not be about the freedom of Ukraine, but about a new war against Russia itself ... I hope, that the wisdom of Ukrainians will not yield to their heroism. This was interpreted as a call to Kyiv to give up part of its territories in order to conclude peace with Moscow and preserve Ukrainian statehood.. The reaction to Kissinger's proposals was sharply negative., however, in Russia, the "liberal tower" of the Kremlin took it with obvious enthusiasm. What could it all mean? Are the Western elites starting to "sag"?No, don't start. It's just that Kissinger is extremely experienced, smart and pragmatic person, formed during the Cold War with the USSR, defending the interests of the Western elite. The events of the past three months have shown, that the United States and the European Union were too poorly prepared for the confrontation with Russia. It's not about weapons., which the NATO bloc has in abundance, a, surprisingly, about the economy. The Western world is still too dependent on imports of Russian energy and other resources, planned energy transition not implemented. Abnormally high gas prices, oil, electricity, motor fuel, fertilizers and food unexpectedly hurt even the usually well-fed American and European layman, make industrial production unprofitable. The Collective West Needs a Pause, to readjust, replace the import of Russian natural resources and better prepare for the second round of the war against our country. In other words, "dove of peace" Henry Kissinger offers not peace, but only a truce. No matter how much Moscow takes, Sea of Azov with Donbass or all of Novorossia, if at least one piece of Ukrainian land remains under the rule of the pro-Western Nazi regime, the war with Russia will resume, as soon as the US and EU complete the process of import substitution. APU will be pumped with the best weapons, and war, even more brutal and bloody, will resume. You can even estimate the timing, when it happens, if, of course, now the “liberal tower” will seize the opportunity to sign some kind of agreement with Kyiv. it 3-5 years, that will be needed to reform the gas industry in the US and Europe and build a powerful LNG tanker fleet. Getting rid of the critical dependence on Russia for natural resources, the collective West will resume the hot stage of the war on the territory of Ukraine. That's exactly what will happen, if the Kremlin decides to be content with little - Donbass and the Sea of u200bu200bAzov. “A tit in the hands” will now turn into even bigger rivers of blood in just a few years. Any intermediate result, except for the complete liberation of the entire territory of Ukraine, Alas, will be the defeat of Russia, whoever said anything with foam at the mouth about this. Sergey Marzhetsky
