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Balkans on the brink of a new war?

Balkans on the brink of a new war?

Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiG) - one of the most ethnically and religiously difficult countries, formed on the ruins of the former Yugoslavia. Opposing forces - Bosniak Muslims and Bosnian Serbs (enclave within the country - Republika Srpska), who fought among themselves in the 1990s. Today, looks like, old "abscess" broke out again. The detonator was Valentin Inzko, UN High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina, who recently introduced by his decision criminal responsibility for denying the genocide in Srebrenica, where during the Bosnian war during 1992-1995 there were fierce battles.

In this town, according to the International Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia, between seven and eight thousand men were killed, Bosnian Muslims. according to an investigation, the murders were committed by soldiers of the Army of the Republika Srpska under the command of General Ratko Mladic, convicted as a result of life imprisonment. Other defendants went through Serbia's criminal courts. The International Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia and the International Court of Justice subsequently qualified the Srebrenica killings as genocide.

AT 2003 g. Republika Srpska authorities, reluctantly, acknowledged responsibility for the massacres of peaceful Muslim population, but disagreed, that it was genocide. AT 2010 g. condemned the massacre, but the parliament of Serbia also refused to recognize it as genocide. although 2009 g. The European Parliament proclaimed 11 July Day of Remembrance of the Srebrenica Genocide.

Flame, as the saying goes, shot down, but the coals have been smoldering all these years. As the Serbian press notes, UN High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina Valentin Inzko has held this post for more than ten years, but decided to play the Serbian-Bosnjakov card, запустив опасный виток противостояния накануне своего ухода. FROM 1 августа с. g. этого «смотрящего» заменит немецкий политик Кристиан Шмидт. However, Inzko's "incendiary" decision comes into force with 31 July,. g. It will operate until the adoption of the same law by the Parliament of BiH..

At the hints of the head of the Republika Srpska Milorad Dodik, in local media, such a rush is explained by the alleged bribery of Inzko, who seems to have "sold" his decision for money to the leadership of Bosnian Muslims. Dodik accuses him of splitting the country along ethnic lines, incite ethnic hatred.

The answer came immediately: Parliament of Republika Srpska announced an emergency meeting 30 July,. g. It is planned to pass two laws on it - in spite of. One will criminalize accusations against the Serbian people of genocide, the second will be punished with imprisonment for speaking, that the Republika Srpska was formed as a result of the Bosniak genocide.

The political leadership of the Bosnian Serbs, led by a member of the Presidium of Bosnia and Herzegovina Milorad Dodik, in protest has already announced, which suspends work in the central government of the country. Furthermore, Dodik stated, that the Republika Srpska may even secede from BiH.

“The key is the will of the people. If we keep quiet and agree with this decision, it will mean, that the Serbs have no history, no future, no right to your position, a are amorphous, meaningless mass, who listens to that, what foreigners say. If the opposition is with us, I am ready to support all their proposals, up to the proclamation of the independence of the Republika Srpska ", - Dodik is quoted by local media.

The consequences of the sole decision of the UN High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina could be fatal. At best, the already sluggish negotiation process on the entry of BiH into the European Union and NATO will be further stalled.. At worst, experts predict options for the development of the situation from a "war" of laws to military clashes and the collapse of the country.

Concerned about Bosnian tensions and Serbian leadership. Belgrade, as is known, strives to join the European Union with all his might (recently he was waved again from Brussels with a carrot), and he has enough problems of his own, eg, with Kosovo. New phase of conflict between Bosnian Serbs and Muslims could seriously hinder Belgrade on its way to the European Union. Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic at his press conference 27 July,. g. in Belgrade unambiguously spoke about the decision of Valentin Inzko as unacceptable for BiH and for all the Balkans. He called the current situation "the most difficult since the end of hostilities" in 1995 g. but, looks like, do not intend to aggravate the situation in Belgrade. Vucic, perhaps, will declare mediation between the parties, making specific proposals in the near future. "I hope, everyone understands - peace and stability are priorities, we have to think about the economy and about, how can we live together ", - said the President of Serbia Aleksandar Vucic.

Circles from events in the Balkans are increasingly diverging around the world. Russia in this scandal supported, of course, Serbs. “Such irresponsible initiative of Inzko provokes an internal political crisis of an unprecedented scale. Interethnic dialogue and all the achievements of the post-conflict period are at risk. Fair indignation, whose wave is already rising in BiH, cannot but evoke understanding. Unfortunately, Inzko has not learned a lesson from the illustrative situation 2015 of the year, when the attempt to get the draft resolution through the UN Security Council failed, who placed full responsibility for the tragic events in BiH during the armed conflict only on one of the parties ", - said the speaker of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation Maria Zakharova.

And the US Embassy in Bosnia and Herzegovina, in its turn, supported the initiative of Valentin Inzko, stated, that "denial of genocide and glorification of war criminals is unacceptable and undermines mutual trust", noting, that the UN representative's move represents “a starting point for more concrete debates and steps by local players, when it comes to practical implementation ".

Looks like, that things are going to level the so-called "Dayton Peace Agreement" from 1995 city, prisoner brokered by the Americans, by which Bosnia and Herzegovina was divided into the Republika Srpska and the rest of its Muslim-Croatian part. But two countries in one bottle turned out to be a time bomb. Bosniacs in the power of BiH have always sought to unitarize Bosnia and Herzegovina, having curtailed as much as possible in recent years the powers of the Republika Srpska in order to, apparently, so that at the right moment it can be abolished altogether. However, if US players expect, that the "genocidal" decision of the UN representative could in the future change the "Dayton lines" in favor of Muslims, then the Serbs themselves, as seen, set up differently. The Balkans once again confirm the historical name of the "powder keg of Europe".

Alla Yaroshinskaya

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