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Who survived the cold, will die of heat?

Who survived the cold, will die of heat?

For several decades now, we have been hearing the same spell about the warming of the earth's climate., which will inevitably lead to a climate disaster. Although the Earth's surface temperature has begun, studies show, from the end of the 19th century, that is, more than a hundred years ago. And the main reason for it, scientists believe, became an anthropogenic factor - human activity. It is believed, that a disaster could overtake the planet with greenhouse gas emissions (under different scenarios) from 0,3 to 4,8 degrees centigrade.

To prevent it, mankind began in 1992 city, adopting the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. This Agreement was then signed by more than 180 nations, by making special commitments to limit greenhouse emissions, heating the atmosphere. However, it did not improve the state of affairs..

The next attempt was the Kyoto Protocol, adopted in Japan in 1997 g. and entered into force in 2005. Its essence is still the same - to stabilize a safe level of concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere., preventing destruction of the Earth's climate system. Parties to the Protocol became 191 country. (USA signed, but Congress did not approve, and Canada left it in 2012 city)

Depending on the economic development of the country, quotas for greenhouse gases were determined. Protocol established, what if the state throws them out less than the allocated quota, it has the right to sell the surplus to another country, which then can already throw them out more than its norm. (In this regard, I recall the scandal when Yulia Tymoshenko was the prime minister in Ukraine., when she was accused of allegedly pocketing money from the sale of surplus Kiev quota to Japan.) Generally, The Kyoto Protocol has largely evolved from an environmental protection mechanism into an international mechanism for trading in greenhouse gas emissions. Significant progress in their reduction was not noticed..

Paris Agreement of 2015 city, adopted instead of the Kyoto Protocol, was another attempt by man to enter into a reasonable dialogue with nature. As noted, its goal is to keep the rise in global average temperature "well below" two degrees Celsius and "make an effort" to limit the rise in temperature to 1,5 degrees. However, the slow progress towards this balance raises great doubts as to whether, that it will be reached earlier, how the disaster will cover the planet. There is no specific time frame for reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the Agreement.. There is only blurry - "so soon, as far as possible ". Besides, there is no mechanism for enforcing obligations, no sanctions to ensure their achievement.

While politicians are busy with verbiage, trade in quotas and games of hide and seek (US under the "bad" Trump loudly slammed the door, withdrawing from the Paris Agreement, then "good" Biden brought the country back), Researchers Publish Results for Human Health in the Planet's Already Changing Climate. The group's article was recently published in the serious scientific journal The Lancet Planetary Health 60 scientists "Global, regional and national burden of mortality, associated with suboptimal ambient temperatures with 2000 by 2019 year: three-stage model study ". It was carried out, as indicated, “Using data on more than 130 millions of deaths from 43 nations, located on five continents and characterized by different climates, socio-economic and demographic conditions, as well as the level of development of public health infrastructure and services ".

Scientists have discovered, that 2000 by 2019 gg. more than nine percent of deaths (5083173) were associated with sub-optimal temperatures. It turned, that in these years from the cold (colds) people died on 0,5% rarely, and the number of deaths from heat increased by 0,2%. In this case, in fairness, it should be noted, that mortality from cold exceeded death from heat - 8,52% against 0,91%. But these humble 0,91% deaths due to global warming so far (or already) are several million people. Moreover, the additional lethality is 74 the case of 100000 human.

Mortality rates varied geographically. "Of all the additional deaths 2617322 (51,49%) occurred in Asia. Eastern Europe had the highest excess death rate from heat, and sub-Saharan Africa has the highest excess mortality from cold, - indicated in the study. - The average daily average temperature in the studied regions increased by 0,26 degrees per decade from 2000 by 2019 year, which is consistent with a significant reduction in excess mortality, associated with the cold, and a moderate increase in the excess mortality rate, heat related ".

According to scientists from the University of California (USA), published in the scientific journal Nature Communication, global warming continues to accelerate. Also according to the UN report, in the period 1880-2012. the average global temperature has risen by 0,85 degrees. The oceans are warming, reduced ice and snow volume, on 19 centimeters sea level has risen. All this led to the melting of ice - with 1979 g. the volume of ice cover in the Arctic Ocean has decreased in each decade by 0.45-0.51 million square kilometers.

As stated in the report of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, given the current concentration of greenhouse gases and their continuing emissions, it is very likely, that by the end of this century, the average global temperature will rise by 1-2 degrees compared to level 1990 g. and by 1.5-2.5 degrees compared to the pre-industrial era. It means, that the oceans will continue to warm and the ice will continue to melt. Most of the impacts of climate change, experts believe, will persist for several centuries. Even if greenhouse gas emissions stop completely.

Oxford University researcher Xihan Lee told The Guardian, that the world is already facing an increase in global temperature by 1,2 degrees Celsius versus pre-industrial level. According to many scientists, raising it to two degrees will be a disaster for humanity.

What is happening in recent months in Europe and on other continents - storms, showers with destruction of housing and infrastructure, droughts and fires, becoming more and more violent from year to year, - lead some scientists to a disturbing conclusion, that irreversible changes in the ecosystems and climate system of the planet have already occurred. Moreover, in the countries of the world, where the debilitating heat is now, there is an increase in human mortality. According to the European program Copernicus, tracking long-term climate change, June was the hottest in North America on record. (In Canada, eg, have already fallen victim to the unprecedented heat 700 human.) In Europe, this summer took the "honorable" second place. The first holds 2003 city, when from extreme heat in the Old World, According to experts, killing 70 thousands of people. But it would seem - some degree to and fro, what's the difference?

Alla Yaroshinskaya

A source

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