Refusing to import electricity from Russia and Belarus until autumn, Ukraine acted cunningly. Летом закупки электричества в любом случае уменьшаются, noted in conversation with ABF "Economics today» Lead Analyst, National Energy Security Fund, expert of the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation Igor YUSHKOV.
Ukraine has again banned the import of Russian and Belarusian electricity, this time to 1 October 2021 of the year. A relevant statement was made by the Ukrainian National Commission for State Regulation in the Spheres of Energy and Utilities (NKREKU).
How the reduction in imports will affect Russia
Kiev has repeatedly stated, that will completely abandon the unified energy system with Russia, and with the same frequency resumed the supply of electricity after his performances. The next decision of NEURC to stop imports has a clear time frame, coinciding with the end of the heating season.
This fact suggests, that the ban on electricity imports is more demonstrative, founded, however, on ordinary practicality.
“It is important to consider, that Ukraine acted cunningly: in the summer, electricity imports are not particularly needed, since there is no deficit. Именно на это время и введен запрет», – explains Igor Yushkov.
When the heating season comes or people start consuming more energy, likely, Ukraine will return to purchases, expert believes.
При этом отказ Незалежной импортировать российскую и белорусскую электроэнергии никак не отразится на внутренних рынках этих двух государств.
With regard to foreign markets, то Украина импортировала не более пяти процентов российского электричества, being a minor partner. In the export of electricity, Russia is mainly aimed at the Baltic countries, Finland, China, Kazakhstan and Georgia.
Minsk is more sensitive to Kiev's decision
For Minsk, the Ukrainian market is of much greater importance, because Kiev remained virtually the only buyer of Belarusian electricity.
"To 2020 of the year Belarus supplied the most electricity to Lithuania, но после запуска БелАЭС заработал литовский закон, banned the import of energy from Belarus ", – recalled Yushkov.
Ukraine was the second sales market for Belarusian electricity: at 2019 year Kiev imported it to 45,6 million dollars. After Vilnius refused to cooperate, all volumes, who used to go to Lithuania, Belarus transferred to Ukraine, resulting in the largest and only customer.
“But in the case of Belarus, a ban on electricity imports was also introduced before 1 October. Minsk is exactly the same, как и Россия осуществлял свои основные поставки в отопительный сезон», – emphasizes Yushkov.
Quite possible, that Ukraine will return to purchasing energy from Russia and Belarus in the fall. Летний запрет даже может не отразиться на годовых цифрах, the expert suggested.
Cold winter enlightened Kiev
The pendulum with the resumption and refusal to import electricity from Russia resumed its movement in October 2019 of the year, когда впервые с 2015 Киев вновь решил привлечь российское электричество.
Already in the spring 2020 Украина передумала – импорт электроэнергии из Москвы и Минска вновь был прекращен, and in December 2020 years and this decision was canceled. The frost was the reason, threatening to bring down the entire power system: rolling blackouts began, there was not enough coal, а большая часть энергоблоков находились на ремонте из-за непрерывной эксплуатации.
В результате электричество из Белоруссии и России удовлетворило повышенный спрос и стабилизировало положение Киева.
What is happening on the energy market of Ukraine
Ukraine is experiencing big problems in the energy sector, because for many years no one invested in updating the infrastructure, также ситуацию усугубляет борьба энергетических кланов.
Rinat Akhmetov's DTEK company stands out in particular, which produces electricity, the cost of which is higher than Russian or Belarusian. Adherents of Akhmetov, usually, welcome the import ban.
They are confronted by industrialists, who need cheap electricity to produce goods.
The rest of the country's energy sectors are also experiencing difficulties..
"Kiev began to buy Russian gas through intermediaries, which is expensive, in this connection, gas generation is used to a limited extent. С углем тоже проблема, because from Donbass, as well as from Russia, это сырье не поставляют по политическим мотивам.
As a result, Ukraine is looking for coal suppliers around the world: in South Africa, USA, Australia and other countries, which is also expensive. Атомные станции работают на полную мощность, и из-за этого чаще приходится проводить регламентные работы и текущие ремонты», – Yushkov comments.
Plus Ukraine, to please Europe, in the early 2010s followed the path of developing renewable energy, which turned out to be much more expensive than usual. В этом отношении было важно наличие дешевой белорусской или российской электроэнергии, able to balance the market.
Now the situation is developing this way, that in the absence of cheap energy, дефиците угля и дорогом природном газе на Украине еще больше вырастут тарифы на электричество, concluded the expert.
Daria Belova
