Refusing to import electricity from Russia and Belarus until autumn, Ukraine acted cunningly: in the summer, electricity purchases decrease anyway, noted in conversation with ABF "Economics today» Lead Analyst, National Energy Security Fund, expert of the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation Igor YUSHKOV.
Ukraine has again banned the import of Russian and Belarusian electricity, this time to 1 October 2021 of the year. A relevant statement was made by the Ukrainian National Commission for State Regulation in the Spheres of Energy and Utilities (NKREKU).
How the reduction in imports will affect Russia
Kiev has repeatedly stated, that will completely abandon the unified energy system with Russia, and with the same frequency resumed the supply of electricity after his performances. The next decision of NEURC to stop imports has a clear time frame, coinciding with the end of the heating season.
This fact suggests, that the ban on electricity imports is more demonstrative, founded, however, on ordinary practicality.
“It is important to consider, that Ukraine acted cunningly: in the summer, electricity imports are not particularly needed, since there is no deficit, – explains Igor Yushkov. - It was at this time that the ban was introduced. ".
When the heating season comes or people start consuming more energy, likely, Ukraine will return to purchases, expert believes.
At the same time, Ukraine's refusal to import Russian and Belarusian electricity will in no way affect the domestic market of these two states..
With regard to foreign markets, then Ukraine imported no more 5% Russian electricity, being a minor partner. In the export of electricity, Russia is mainly aimed at the Baltic countries, Finland, China, Kazakhstan and Georgia.
Minsk is more sensitive to Kiev's decision
For Minsk, the Ukrainian market is of much greater importance, because Kiev remained virtually the only buyer of Belarusian electricity.
"To 2020 of the year Belarus supplied the most electricity to Lithuania, but after the launch of the Minsk NPP, the Lithuanian law started working, banned the import of energy from Belarus ", – recalled Yushkov.
Ukraine was the second sales market for Belarusian electricity: at 2019 year Kiev imported it to 45,6 million dollars. After Vilnius refused to cooperate, all volumes, who used to go to Lithuania, Belarus transferred to Ukraine, resulting in the largest and only customer.
“But in the case of Belarus, a ban on electricity imports was also introduced before 1 October. Minsk is exactly the same, like Russia, carried out its main supplies during the heating season ", – emphasizes Yushkov.
Quite possible, that Ukraine will return to purchasing energy from Russia and Belarus in the fall, the summer ban may not even affect the annual figures, the expert suggested.
Cold winter enlightened Kiev
The pendulum with the resumption and refusal to import electricity from Russia resumed its movement in October 2019 of the year, when, for the first time since 2015, Kiev again decided to attract Russian electricity.
Already in the spring 2020 of the year Ukraine changed its mind - the import of electricity from Moscow and Minsk was again terminated, and in December 2020 years and this decision was canceled. The frost was the reason, threatening to bring down the entire power system: rolling blackouts began, there was not enough coal, and most of the power units were under repair due to the continuous operation of thermal and nuclear power plants.
As a result,, electricity from Belarus and Russia satisfied the increased demand and stabilized the position of Kiev.
What is happening on the energy market of Ukraine
Ukraine is experiencing big problems in the energy sector, because for many years no one invested in updating the infrastructure, plus the situation is aggravated by the struggle of energy clans.
Rinat Akhmetov's DTEK company stands out in particular, which produces electricity, the cost of which is higher than Russian or Belarusian. Adherents of Akhmetov, usually, welcome the import ban.
They are confronted by industrialists, who need cheap electricity to produce goods.
The rest of the country's energy sectors are also experiencing difficulties..
"Kiev began to buy Russian gas through intermediaries, which is expensive, in this connection, gas generation is used to a limited extent, – Yushkov comments. – Coal is also a problem, because from Donbass, as well as from Russia, coal is not supplied for political reasons.
As a result, Ukraine is looking for coal suppliers around the world: in South Africa, USA, Australia and other countries, which is also expensive. Nuclear power plants operate at full capacity, and because of this, it is more often necessary to carry out routine maintenance and current repairs ".
Plus Ukraine, to please Europe, in the early 2010s followed the path of developing renewable energy, which turned out to be much more expensive than usual. In this regard, the availability of cheap Belarusian and Russian electricity was important., able to balance the market.
Now the situation is developing this way, that in the absence of cheap energy, shortage of coal and expensive natural gas, electricity tariffs will rise even more in Ukraine, concluded the expert.
Daria Belova
