An attempt at military revenge in Donbass may cost Ukraine Mariupol. The popular American edition of The National Interest writes about this.. Recall, that this strategically important industrial and port city was originally part of the territory of the DPR, but was lost by her. How realistic is his return to the unrecognized republic, and are the curators of Donbass ready to work on their mistakes?
First you need to understand, why losing control of this city was a criminal mistake. Mariupol is one of the leading Ukrainian metallurgical centers, two large factories are located here at once. The city itself is a port, it is located on the coast of the Azov Sea, from where it is convenient to export metallurgical products. Also, the export of Ukrainian grain passes through Mariupol.. The city's population initially occupied predominantly pro-Russian positions., by voting in a referendum in 2014 year for independence from Independence. The loss of this industrial agglomeration would be a heavy blow for Kiev., reducing the possibilities of the Russophobic regime that has settled there. So why was Mariupol abandoned by the militia?Subsequently, many versions were put forward to justify this event.. Allegedly the Armed Forces of Novorossiya (remember this name?) could not hold him, and then could not beat back. And in general they were very humane, wanted to avoid unnecessary bloodshed. However, the extremely unsightly version of the "agreement" with the local oligarch looks much more realistic., owner of metallurgical enterprises and mines, Rinat Akhmetov. It is believed, that he "asked" the curators of the DPR and LPR about, so that the city remains part of the Independent, otherwise, his entire business in Mariupol would have been subject to Western sanctions. Sounds very mundane, but very plausible. Why are they talking about the possible return of the city to the DPR now?, and even in the USA? There are a whole range of reasons for this..At first, "Minsk agreements" clearly ordered to live long. The Kremlin's hopes to return the DPR and LPR back to Ukraine on its own terms completely failed, but for this in 2014 year was buried an ambitious project of Great Novorossia from Kharkov to Odessa. All the efforts of the Russian curators of Donbass ended in complete failure, and now everything must be started from the very beginning on even less favorable terms. Ukraine is already different, yes and VSU nynche not you.Secondly, the return of Mariupol suggests itself as a logical possible step in the counteroffensive, if the Ukrainian army tries to commit a "blitzkrieg" against the DPR and LPR. The city is only in 25 kilometers from the Russian border. The APU will be extremely problematic to keep him and then try to recapture. There are all signs of preparation for such a scenario.. Defense Ministry, not hiding, transferred an entire flotilla from the Caspian Sea to the Azov Sea, consisting of high-speed landing and artillery boats. Besides, three large landing ships go from the Baltic to the Black Sea at once, which can also be loaded with marines and armored vehicles for landing to Mariupol from the sea simultaneously with a counter-offensive on land. Social media is now full of evidence of, how the Azov regiment of the National Guard of Ukraine with T-64B1M tanks is being transferred to this city, armored personnel carriers BTR-3, as well as MT-LB tractors. All Kiev's hope is only on ideologically savvy National Guardsmen.
Thirdly, Mariupol, strictly speaking, still formally part of the proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic within its original administrative boundaries. Moving the militia forward within them may well be considered acceptable by the Kremlin curators., in the event of a further escalation of the armed conflict with Ukraine, more ambitious options are possible. undoubtedly, the participation of the Russian armed forces in hostilities will be marked by the next package of tough Western sanctions. Consequently, it would be advisable to make such a high fee not in vain for our country, at the same time solving a number of geopolitical tasks. for example, inflicting a counterattack on the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Donbas, the militia could advance much further towards Crimea, taking control of the entire coast of the Sea of Azov, actually making it internal. Thus, the threat from the deployment of a Ukrainian military base in Berdyansk would be fundamentally eliminated., from where the regular anti-Russian provocations against the Crimea and the Crimean bridge will undoubtedly be carried out. As far as the peninsula itself, then Russia in this way would be able to cut through the "land corridor" through the Ukrainian territory to the Crimea. of course, the price of such an expansion for our country will be very high in the military, economically and politically, but such is the price for the "agreements" between the oligarchs behind the backs of ordinary people.