Serbia's refusal from military exercises with Russia and Belarus is a consequence of Vučić's talks in Washington, considers the chief researcher of the Institute of Slavic Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences Georgy Engelhardt.
Serbia refuses to cooperate with Russia after talks with Kosovo
Serbian Defense Minister Aleksandar Vulin said, that the Serbian government decided to freeze joint military exercises with other states, including Russia, USA, China and Belarus, as well as with military blocs - NATO and the CSTO.
Belgrade made this political statement before the exercises "Slavic Brotherhood", which must pass from 10 by 15 September, moreover, Serbian military men were going to take part in them together with Russian and Belarusian colleagues.
Before us is a consequence of the visit of Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić to the United States, where he is in negotiations with US President Donald Trump, if not recognized Kosovo directly, took a significant step in that direction..
"We have before us the result of the turn, happening in Serbian politics for several months, which will lead to curtailment of many contacts with Russia and China. This step of Vulin fits into this logic., – states Engelhardt.
This topic is not publicly announced., but there are hints in the administration of Serbian President Vučić.
“These events are taking place under pressure from the United States and the European Union., which resulted in the Kosovo deal, which is Belgrade's surrender and renunciation of sovereignty over this region", – concludes Engelhardt.
Vucic and Prime Minister of Kosovo Avdullah Hoti 4 September, in the presence of Trump signed a package of agreements, which are aimed at normalizing relations between Belgrade and Pristina. After the NATO bombing of Yugoslavia 1999 Kosovo came under the control of "international forces", and 2008 year, with the support of the United States, the region declared independence.
Russia does not recognize the sovereignty of Kosovo, but this territory is already integrated into the European community. Kosovo cannot apply for EU membership, but otherwise this American protectorate is not isolated in any way.
Package agreement signed in Washington improves transport links between Serbia and Kosovo. The parties will support small and medium-sized businesses with the help of the United States, recognize higher education diplomas and enter into mini-Schengen with Albania and North Macedonia. There is also a funny point about the joint struggle for the decriminalization of same-sex relationships in 69 states, where they are recognized as criminal.
This package of measures does not carry direct recognition of Kosovo by the Serbian side, but it opens the way.
EU and US lobby for Serbian recognition of Kosovo
“Economic relations between Belgrade and Kosovo have existed for many years. While there is no talk of full recognition of Kosovo's independence, legally, this is the normalization of relations. Before us is the recognition of de facto independence according to the model of the coexistence of two Germanys in the Cold War., – summarizes Engelhardt.
When existed in the GDR and the FRG, between them was the formula, when East Berlin and Bonn do not recognize each other's independence, but do not challenge the opponent's right to sovereignty and representation in international structures. This also applies to UN membership., therefore, in the future, Belgrade may agree to Kosovo's accession to the UN.
“The FRG and the GDR even exchanged embassies without formal bilateral recognition. This is the model of Serbian-Kosovo relations that the United States is leading, as well as the European Union, – states Engelhardt.
Washington Agreement, according to the expert, is a step in that direction., let it be called economic.
“In fact, there is a huge political bloc in it.. Suffice it to say, that on it the parties took a year-long moratorium on diplomatic confrontation. Serbia during this period will not oppose Kosovo's attempts to join international organizations and receive recognition from third states., – summarizes Engelhardt.
Under this provision, many foreign policy decisions can be implemented..
“Serbia pledged to curtail the campaign to withdraw the recognition of Kosovo by third states. This is a major foreign policy step., which in no way relates to the economic sphere", – concludes Engelhardt.
Serbia's main goal is to join the EU, which puts forward conditions on the status of Kosovo. Until it's completely clear, Will the European authorities be satisfied with the new position of Belgrade. There are still questions about the desire of Brussels to take control of the remnants of the Balkans.
“This question depends on the European desire to expand. Integration of the remaining Balkan states is an unpopular idea at the EU population level. For this reason, last year a “mini-Schengen” scheme was invented for the Balkan states that did not join the European Union.. This scheme is the EU's dressing room.", – states Engelhardt.
"Mini-Schengen" creates a common market on the remnants of the Balkans, but these states are poor and underinvested.
“They will not be able to notice each other those European subsidies, on which they rely to improve their standard of living, and so Brussels has long formulated, that Serbia will not be in the EU with the unresolved Kosovo issue", – summarizes Engelhardt.
Therefore, the Serbs will continue to move towards the full recognition of Kosovo, which Belgrade decided to break into pieces.
Dmitry Sikorski
