Well, situation, which I wrote about in the material immediately after the start of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict, moves along the rails already familiar to everyone. It is not clear whose provocation, then the exacerbation of the military component and mutual threats up to the use of missiles at the enemy's infrastructure and the transfer of the conflict to a slow phase.
We will shoot, until the Russians offer their services for reconciliation?
It is already clear today, that politicians on both sides are waiting. If we discard all the husk about contacts with some countries, about military assistance from some side, on the influence of foreign NGOs on the governments of both countries, it immediately becomes clear, that the only objective referee in this conflict can only be Russia. Someone else does not want to participate in resolving this issue at all.
by the way, and those events on the confrontation line, which occur daily and are reported by both parties, there is an attempt to play on the nerves of the Russians, an attempt to shift the blame for the next killed and wounded on Russia. A sort of cleverly twisted script, when both Yerevan and Baku declare their readiness for reconciliation, and Russia, the only possible intermediary, believed by both countries, is silent and does not make any attempt to reconcile the fighting.
The tactics are clear and not even hidden by the governments of both countries. To wait, then to have a stronger position in the upcoming negotiations. We had to win and we would win, and therefore our conditions are more priority than those, which the enemy puts forward. At the same time, for internal use, the leadership of both countries talks about hundreds and thousands of patriots, who are ready to go to war right now.
To me, to be honest, opposite position of both countries. And in Yerevan, and Baku is well aware of hundreds of thousands of citizens of their countries and ethnic Armenians and Azerbaijanis, living in other countries around the world. Due to some peculiarities, Armenians and Azerbaijanis are forced to conduct their business in other countries.
How to imagine the market of any European country without traders from Azerbaijan? Well, they know how to trade better than others. And they love to do it. How to imagine the construction market without Armenians? Those brigades, who work from dawn to dusk on construction sites? Those, who puts asphalt on our roads in any heat. They also know how and love to do it.
Then what are the leaders of both countries thinking about?? They don't think about, that the conflict between diasporas in other countries already exists. Hatred of representatives of two peoples, backed by the blood of murdered relatives, until it spills into open carnage, but it's still. While law enforcement officers in these countries can control the mood in the diasporas and stop conflicts in time.
by the way, I would also pay attention to the statements of high-ranking officials and politicians of both countries. I am about the readiness to use missile weapons in the event of an escalation of hostilities. Somehow the majority of our experts missed this statement.. Meanwhile, both states have facilities on their territory, whose destruction would mean the destruction of the country. At least, economically.
I remember, on the promises of the Armenian Ministry of Defense to attack the Mingechevir reservoir and on the return promise of the Azerbaijani Ministry of Defense to attack the nuclear power plant in Armenia. Of course, they will object to me, that this is an element of information war, but in fact, no one will dare to take such measures. Can, so. But my upbringing is not like that, used to believe my eyes and draw my own conclusions. Cat, cornered, turns into a tiger and will fight to the end. Until victory or death ...
There was a video of large-scale airborne exercises in the Ryazan region
What Russia is doing to put out the fire
There are enough people today, who “do not see” Russia's efforts to localize and end the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict. No harsh shouts, no threats, no sanctions ... in short, all that tinsel is missing, which politicians like to raise when solving even trivial issues.
Meanwhile, even Western experts note the enormous work of the Russian Foreign Ministry in both capitals.. Diplomats in Yerevan and Baku do not stop working for a minute. The results are not yet visible for one simple reason.. If earlier, before the Pashinyan government came to power, Armenia took a conditionally pro-Russian position, was an active member of the CSTO, now Yerevan is more likely an enemy of Russia, than friend. And anti-Russian performances there are commonplace. And Armenia has not participated in the work of the CSTO for two years already..
In this way, Russian diplomats, as I think, bring to both governments the position of our country. We are neutral. We respect both peoples, but we will not take the side of one of them. What makes Armenians angry enough. The media remind us every day of the Russian military base in Armenia, on membership in the CSTO, about "traditional friendship", immediately forgetting about the anti-Russian rhetoric of recent days.
It is just as difficult to explain our neutrality in Baku.. the, that Azerbaijan is actively cooperating with Turkey, quite understandable. How is our cooperation with Belarus explainable?, eg. But this cooperation does not in the least prevent Baku from pursuing a political, economic, cultural and other dialogues. This does not prevent Azerbaijan from purchasing our weapons. We have concluded many mutually beneficial contracts.
Generally, in diplomatic language, now there is an active search for solutions acceptable to both sides, development of options for these decisions and preparation of a corresponding meeting of leaders of states.
A kind word and a gun
Today panicky cries of "philanthropists" are heard from all sides about, that a war could break out, which will set fire to the entire Caucasus. Thesis, need to say, contrived enough, controversial. But we will proceed from the fact, that the military exists for that, to anticipate even such unlikely cases and to take measures to prevent.
We have already written about the reaction of the US and NATO to the Russian strategic command and staff exercises "Kavkaz-2020". The vast majority of our readers understand, that such exercises are never carried out from scratch. It is only in movies that units and units act as a single mechanism without proper training.. In life, the coherence of the actions of the unit, let alone parts, connections and associations, is the result of the tremendous work of commanders of all levels, engineering and technical staff, specialists of many military professions.
Simply put, for the regiment to complete the combat mission, must, so that every screw of this complex mechanism works for this task. For this, exercises in platoons are conducted before regimental exercises., companies, battalions. Combat coordination of units is being carried out. So that each soldier and officer clearly understands the algorithm of their actions when executing orders.
To understand the immensity of the task at hand, it is enough to list at least part of the forces and means, who will be involved. so, involved 149 755 military, 26 820 pieces of equipment and weapons, 414 aircrafts, 106 ships and auxiliary vessels. Geographic coverage is impressive too. Southern and Western military districts, marines of the Northern and Pacific fleets, VDV, units and formations of central subordination.
And all this power will conduct tactical exercises as preparation for strategic. Planned 56 such teachings on 35 landfills and 17 marine ranges in the waters of the Black and Caspian Seas. As a final check before the start of the strategic exercises "Caucasus-2020", the Ministry of Defense conducts a surprise check of troops.
I deliberately did not write about the teachings more specifically and in depth.. Moreover, the material is about something else. clear, that a lot of work was done in the units and formations during the preparation. Military equipment and weapons are in excellent condition. Logistic services prepared, medical support, communication and everything else.
This is the very "pistol" next to the "kind word", which, in case of misunderstanding of any of the parties to the conflict, Russia can use as an instrument of appeasement.
I argued then and I repeat today: war is not needed by any people and even the state. Nor Armenia, neither Azerbaijan wants to fight. Furthermore, judging by the statements of various politicians in these countries, there is not even an understanding of that, why this conflict arose. In my opinion, it's just an opportunity to let off steam, which has accumulated quite a lot due to economic problems, due to quarantine and restrictions, disease-related.
The conflict must be ended. You should never get your weapon then, when there is an opportunity to talk. Weapons only get out then, when a fight is inevitable. Precisely a fight, and not a catwalk runway with casualties and comments from showmen from politics.
Alexander Staver
