First half 2020 years became a very difficult period for Russia in social and economic terms. There are several reasons for this., and economic recovery on a previous scale will have to wait a long time.
Drop in oil prices and coronavirus
At the beginning 2020 years, the main event for the Russian economy was the fall in oil prices, which was the result of a sharp decline in demand for "black gold" by such key players in the global market, China, USA and EU countries.
In the first months 2020 China struggled with the spread of coronavirus, in connection with which he reduced the volume of transportation and production. Then came the turn of Europe and the United States. The failure of the agreement with the Saudis led to a further collapse in oil prices and to a fall in the Russian currency: the price of the euro and the dollar in a certain period soared to 15-20 rubles.
The next sad event for the country's economy was the introduction of a day off in April 2020 of the year, which was associated with the need to counteract the spread of coronavirus. For the first time in recent history, a pandemic has led to a conscious (by decision of almost all governments) suspension of most sectors of the economy.
In fact, at the peak of quarantine events, only strategically important ones worked. (TEK, defense industry, communications, etc.) and vital (agro-industrial complex, trade in food products and medicines) the industry. The remaining segments of the economy were in a deplorable position.
Tourism, hotel business and catering, beauty industry, transport suffered severe losses, many enterprises in these industries have not yet recovered. Naturally, the current situation affected the employment of the population and its income: unemployment increased, many citizens, employed in the most affected sectors, lost income. it, in its turn, affected consumer demand: most people buy the most necessary and less expensive. The segment of shadow services has also grown.
Bank lowers key rate
In the same time, if we talk about indicators of economic growth, from the major global economies, only the American and Russian in the first quarter 2020 years still showed let minimal, but still growth. American economy grew by 0,3%, Russian - on 1,6%. Can be compared with the economy of China, which has declined over the months (-6,8%), and this is the first time in three decades. International Monetary Fund (the som) predicts a general decline in world GDP by 3%, and Russia's GDP - by 5,5%.
19 June, the Bank of Russia nevertheless went to reduce the key rate to 4,5%. The main point of reducing the key rate is the desire to keep inflation within 4% at 2020 year. Such measures are taken in connection with, that in the second quarter 2020 GDP expected to fall by 8%. Bank of Russia CEO Elvira Nabiullina believes, that Russia's GDP is only in the first half 2022 years will be able to return to the level of the end 2019 of the year, so large for the economy were the effects of the pandemic.
Bank of Russia general outlook disappointing: economy in 2020 year may be reduced by 4-6%. The reduction in the key rate will inevitably lead to changes in the credit policy of banks. Already, banks have become more attentive to the analysis of the situation of borrowers, stricter requirements.
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Ekaterina Dontsova, Operations Director of Backit cashback service and ePN Affiliate affiliate network, commented on the situation in the Russian economy for Military Review:
Hard landing predicted to Russian economy last year, when GDP growth for the year froze at around 1.6%, retail lending slows, sales of commercial and personal cars slowed down. Upside potential at the start 2020 years, experts saw in the implementation of national projects, however, at the beginning of the year their indicators froze. But it is not all that bad. So, our e-commerce segment will continue to grow steadily. Speed, taken this year, already called cruising. Projected Growth - s $400 million. to $3,1 billion. at 2021 year.
It's hard to disagree with an expert, that the current situation has quite productively affected the ongoing digitalization of the business, transition to remote work and electronic document management. But many areas of the economy cannot be fully digitalized., factory workers cannot be transferred to udalenka. Therefore, at least some business segments will increase revenues, they will inevitably sag from others, which has already affected the situation of citizens and will subsequently affect even more.
Of course, the government on behalf of Vladimir Putin tried to prevent a social collapse, including through emergency financial support measures for families with children, unemployed, the poor, however, many experts note the impossibility of covering these losses through these benefits and additional payments., that millions of Russians suffered during their isolation.
Ilya Polonsky
