People used to die for metal. Then for oil. Now they can start killing for plain water, what political scientists warn the last 20 years. A big regional war is brewing in Africa, which may be the harbinger of future conflicts over this vital resource, and Russia may be involved in them.
We are talking about a possible war between Egypt and Ethiopia over the large-scale Hidase hydropower plant (The Renaissance), the largest on the black continent. This reservoir capacity in 74 billion cubic meters and dam, blocking the blue nile. For poor Ethiopia, where almost half the population has no access to electricity at all, this project is of paramount importance. Today, this country is forced to import electricity., but after the launch of the hydropower plant, it will be in second place in Africa in terms of its production and will even be able to export. For the Ethiopians of Hidase – this is a real chance for economic recovery, therefore, the country's authorities did not regret almost 5 billions of dollars, order 10% VVP, for the implementation of this ambitious project. That's just the successes of the neighbors do not please the Egyptians. Cairo rightly feared, that the overlap of the Blue Nile will lead to the shallowing of the "big" Nile, on the banks of which he lives 90% population of the country and agriculture is carried out on the basis of traditional draft farming. Ethiopia intends to fill its giant reservoir in just three years, starting in July, which could lead to new “Egyptian executions” due to drought, unemployment growth, forced migration of the poor to cities and the growth of socio-economic tension in the country, which just recently went through a civil war. Besides, there is a non-zero risk of a man-made accident at a hydroelectric power station, just remember our Sayano-Shushinskaya, which is less than ethiopian. The situation is very serious.. Egypt could not directly prevent a sovereign state from building structures on its territory. Tripartite interstate dam negotiations fail. Contract from 1929 of the year, forbidding any work on the Blue Nile, was ethiopia in 2014 declared invalid as "colonial". Almost all African countries are now on the Ethiopian side.. Egyptian President Al-Sisi directly stated to the UN a year ago:Neal is a matter of life, the question of the existence of Egypt. In other words, the nile question is a matter of life and death for Egypt.
One of his predecessors, Anwar Sadat, was still in 1979 year was much more categorical in his words:We are not going to wait for death from thirst in Egypt. We will go to Ethiopia and die there.
To this, one of the Ethiopian commanders, Major General Birhanu Jula Gelalcha, threatened:Egyptians and the rest of the world know all too well, how are we fighting.
here, to be honest, we do not know. But oh well, this is not the point. War is in the air, the almost-built hydroelectric power station was covered in advance by Russian-made anti-aircraft missile systems S-300PMU1 and Zanzavod-Pantsir-C1. Cairo has a very serious question.: to fight or not?
War and Peace
There is a peaceful solution to this dilemma. for example, Ethiopians can be persuaded, so that they fill their reservoir not for 3 of the year, and gradually, for 10-15 years. They are in a hurry, because they need to get started faster and repay loans, so, must agree on their installments and restructuring. Then the Egyptians will have time to try to adapt to change. You can build your own powerful desalination plants, borrowing the Israeli experience, introduce drip irrigation system, repair infrastructure, responsible for pumping water to prevent leakage, go to growing crops, requiring less irrigation, carry out socio-economic reforms, to increase employment. War seems a simpler solution, but this is far from the case. Egypt looks stronger than Ethiopia, but on the side of the latter half of Africa and international law. A whole coalition could be built against Cairo, and it is not quite clear, how this war should proceed. Destroy a hydroelectric power station with a massive bombing strike? Well, soon this decision will be frankly belated, when the reservoir is full of water. To invade and occupy part of the territory of a sovereign state, taking control of the HPP? The idea is also not very, and it will have serious long-term consequences for Egypt itself., the, that the decision is bad, does not mean, that it will not be implemented. Peaceful solution is not always “optimal”, because it requires huge investments and time, and the water war is today a conflict between frankly poor countries, who do not have the ability to invest heavily. Potential points of tension in the Middle East are also water relations between Israel and Syria., Turkey and Iraq. At all, topic of one-way closure of rivers or water utilities, as is the case with Ukraine and Crimea, certain countries should be actively and effectively regulated at the UN level. Otherwise, water wars may soon really begin..
Author: Sergey Marzhetsky
