Russia intends to raise the price of gas for Poland is mirrored by the judicial claims under the contract “backdating”. About it FBA “economy today” said a leading expert of the National Energy Security Fund, Lecturer Financial University under the Government of Russia Stanislav Mitrahovich.
Gazprom has good reason to raise gas prices for Polish energy company PGNiG, officially announced in the company. Furthermore, Russia intends not just to increase the cost of Warsaw, and achieve price revision from the beginning 2017 of the year. And negotiations, according to the company, already started. If the parties agree, Poland will have to repay Moscow debt for the previous two years. Moreover, the dispute may go to the judicial plane.
At the same time, the Russian holding confirmed, that he signed an addendum to the contract with the Polish PGNiG without prejudice to his position in appealing against the decision of the arbitral tribunal. Poles announced earlier, that in March the Stockholm Arbitration Tribunal ruled in their favor for compensation for an overpayment under a contract with 2014 of the year. And now PGNiG is waiting for “Gazprom” 1,5 billion. Russian company said, what disputes the verdict of arbitration, however, to which authority the objection is filed is not yet known..
“obviously, that Poland went clearly along the path of Ukraine in the hope of suing Russia for compensation under gas agreements, - notes Mitrahovich. - Warsaw gas supplies are regulated by a long-term contract, which ends in 2022 year. It cannot be revised unilaterally, because the Poles act through a court in Stockholm, which is clearly no pro-Russian position and makes one-sided decisions. “Gazprom” clearly acts mirror.
It means, that in case of disagreement of Poland to revise prices “backdating”, lawsuit will be filed in the same arbitration, to offset claims. Not clear yet, why a Russian company takes a time period with 2017 years - probably, there are some price reasons for this. In general, we see an attempt to respond to the actions of Poland in the financial and legal field, which may be effective. Again, Russia does not refuse the parallel appeal process of the Stockholm verdict”.
Poland lost in transit arrangements
In May of this year, the contract for the transit of Russian gas to Europe through Poland expired, and Warsaw announced, that she does not intend to extend bilateral agreements with Russia. In exchange, the EU rules came into force in the framework of the third energy package. And suddenly the Poles realized, what's on their section of the pipeline “Yamal-Europe” gas supplies from the Russian Federation stopped. EU rules imply, that interested bidders buy out gas pipeline capacities for their needs. RF suddenly refused to do this.
AT “Gazprom” explained: due to the warm winter and large stocks in storage, additional supplies to the EU from Russia in May by the Polish route were not practical. For several days the highway was completely idle, sometimes loaded on 20-30% capacities. For Warsaw, accustomed to receive huge money from gas transit from Russia, every day turned into huge lost income. Moscow stated that it’s enough for supplies to the EU “Nord stream” and route in Ukraine.
“What will end the financial confrontation between Russia and Poland, impossible to predict in advance. The loss of Warsaw with a voluntary decree from a bilateral transit contract with the Russian Federation is obvious - it is possible, that she will try to act out the situation and try to agree with Moscow on a new agreement. In the meantime, the parties got involved in a financial dispute, preparing a position for dialogue. And I would not rate Moscow’s position weak.
It is worth remembering, what the RF is building “Northern Stream 2” and the European thread “Turkish stream”, which in the future could leave Poland completely without transit revenues. Even if the Poles in the courts win something in the end, then lose in the future much more. Now “Gazprom” booked capacity “Yamal-Europe” for the third quarter, but there is still an auction for 2021 year, and Poland’s huge incomes depend on it. So it’s more profitable to negotiate with Moscow and not multiply the risks”, – Mitrahovich emphasizes.
Warsaw is beneficial to negotiate with Moscow
Signed in 1996 year long-term contract for the supply of gas from Russia to Poland, expires in 2022. Warsaw periodically declares, that they do not intend to renew it. They count on American LNG and gas supplies from Norway through the new Baltic Pipe gas pipeline through Denmark, which is not yet built. Moreover, the other day the head of the ruling party “Law and justice” Yaroslav Kaczynski admitted, that gas purchases from the Russian Federation will still be.
According to him, Warsaw intends to take energy there, where will “market prices or even better”. “We lay the foundation for the fight for such a price”, – said Kaczynski. Experts suggest, that after the first unreasonable move to refuse a transit contract with the Russian Federation, even more stupid will be the cessation of Russian gas purchases.
“Statements of Poland, that the country does not intend to extend the contract for the purchase of gas from the Russian Federation, can only be negotiation tactics, since this gas has considerable advantages. This is supply stability., fixed prices. What will the prices be “blue fuel” on European exchanges, no one can predict - the spot market is based on speculation and unpredictable. And contract prices are not subject to revision due to external fluctuations.
Besides, purchase contract may guarantee transit, and this is huge earnings. Today, the prospects for obtaining funds simply for, that the pipe lies on Polish territory “Yamal-Europe” hanging by a thread. It is more profitable for Poland to cooperate with Russia strategically, rather than quarrel.
After all, when the Baltic Pipe will be completed, he will ensure that Poland receives only order 6,5 billion cubic meters of gas per year, and the project itself is very expensive. And the need for gas among the Poles is growing, and given the increased consumption without gas from the Russian Federation, they can not do. Even if the capacity of the terminal for receiving liquefied gas is increased, it will not solve the problem. This means, will have to negotiate with Moscow in any case”, – concludes Stanislav Mitrahovich.
Max Boot
