A serious situation has developed around the health status of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, believes director of the Center for Strategic Studies of China RUDN Alexey Maslov.
Kim Jong-un's health has become an international issue
DPRK Main Edition Nodon Sinmun Announces, that Kim Jong-un sent thanks to the builders of the Wonsan Kalma tourist area. Besides, celebrated, that Kim Jong-un is actively working with documents.
This message should be taken as Pyongyang’s reaction to speculation, something happened to Kim Jong-un. Recall, that rumors circulate in the world media, that the health of the North Korean leader has deteriorated significantly, right up to, that he died or is in a vegetative state.
About it, in particular, says South Korean Daily NK, citing its supposedly numerous agents in the DPRK and on the border with China, “Whose identity cannot be disclosed due to security reasons”.
Check this "information" is impossible, since the DPRK is a closed state, where such questions are expertly hidden from prying eyes. This is the basis for all kinds of stuffing and outright misinformation on the situation in the DPRK - after all, if we take the story with Kim Jong-un, this is not the first time that this politician has been buried.
Facts Say, that Kim Jong-un hasn’t shown in public since 11 April and did not visit 15 April Palace of the Sun, to pay tribute to his grandfather Kim Il Sung in his Pyongyang mausoleum. Kim Il Sung's birthday is the main holiday of the DPRK, therefore, a similar turn of events is a marker.
This allowed the reputable Korean historian Andrei Lankov to conclude, that 12 by 14 April something happened to Kim Jong-un, but what exactly is impossible to say, because in DPRK they know how to keep secrets. However, other facts suggest, that the North Korean leader is alive, but may be temporarily suspended from political activity.
Kim Jong-un has been discussing health problems for a long time - he smokes at least a lot, overweight and diabetes, therefore news about, what flew from China to Pyongyang 50 doctors, fall on fertilized soil.
DPRK policy will not change in any case
“In fact, the situation is not quite ordinary, although kim jong un, as we know, at 2014 almost disappeared 40 days. There were his other "disappearances", but nevertheless now this event is associated with at least two serious questions. At first, he was not at Kim Il Sung's symbolic birthday celebration, and secondly, the, that this “disappearance” occurred against the background of coronavirus infection. We also see Chinese concerns, which is always very well informed about the situation in the DPRK. ", – Maslov concludes.
Coronavirus pandemic, apparently, is not the cause of health problems Kim Jong-un, but the current situation in the world amplifies the noise around the North Korean leader.
Alexey Alexandrovich believes, that these circumstances allow us to conclude, that the situation in North Korea is not quite ordinary.
“No matter how the situation unfolds, is Kim Jong-un in a coma, or he passed away, or nothing happened to him and only a scheduled operation happened, we must understand, that a change in the political paradigm in the DPRK will not happen. The power there is arranged in this way, either she will go to Kim Jong-un's sister and then the Kim dynasty will continue, or some kind of internal coup will happen, but it will not affect the political paradigm. The power in the DPRK will go to a similar, but a slightly different grouping ", – states Maslov.
note, that Kim Jong-un is the third leader of North Korea and the grandson of its first leader, Kim Il Sung. In this country, ideology is based on the cult of Kim Il Sung and the Kim dynasty., therefore, despite the fact, that the DPRK is formally a communist state, the dynastic foundations of the inheritance of power are obvious there.
Because of this, the idea is circulating in the media, that Kim Jong-un will be succeeded by his sister Kim Yo-jung, which in recent years has been nominated by the brother to the highest state posts. Kim Jong-un's own children are still very small and cannot be regarded as heirs of the head of state, which is not yet 40 years.
Kim Jong-un has an older brother Kim Jong-chol, which was pushed back in the zero years in the order of "succession", as well as uncle Kim Pyeong Il. The latter is the son of Kim Il Sung from his second wife and because of this for many years he worked as the DPRK ambassador to various European states.
In general, the situation in the inheritance of power in the DPRK is confusing, moreover, she already forced Kim Jong-un to take radical actions. Here you need to remember about the execution for treason Chan Song Thek (he was the husband of aunt Kim Jong-un) at 2013 year and mysterious death in 2017 year at Malaysian airport Kim Jong Nam. This man was Kim Jong-un's older half-brother and lived permanently abroad..
“We don’t have to wait for any serious changes in the DPRK’s foreign policy, and the only, what can bother us, so this is, that Kim Jong-un proved himself to be an unpleasant person, but negotiating. It was quite difficult to communicate with him, but at the same time in recent years he has not made any real attacks. Therefore, there is always concern, that a more radical group may come to power in Pyongyang or the current group will tighten its policy. It was because of this that Kim Jong-un was happy with everyone to a certain extent. ”, – summarizes Maslov.
The expert believes, that the current aggravation of the situation around North Korea cannot be underestimated, and in the coming weeks we will find out for sure, what happened in this country.
Dmitry Sikorski
