The requirement of Belarus to the Russian oil delivery for 4 dollars per barrel reflects the situation on the world market, says a leading expert of National Energy Security Fund, Lecturer of the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation Igor YUSHKOV.
prices in 4 dollars per barrel impossible
President's press secretary Dmitry Peskov said, that Belarus will not be able to buy from Russia 2 million tons of oil at a price of 4 dollars per barrel in the event, if there is no such quotation.
Thus, Dmitry commented on yesterday's statement by Prime Minister of Belarus Sergei Rumas Petroleum hopes Minsk, seeing, that the price will be determined in bilateral negotiations.
«Price 4 dollars per barrel appeared due to the fact, Rumas that took quotes, who were yesterday at the Russian Urals brand oil. Yesterday, this brand worth 13 dollars per barrel, and at the moment its price drops to 10 dollars per barrel. Rumas took away from this Russian export duties and received 4 dollars per barrel ", – states YUSHKOV.
obviously, that Belarus continues to the oil dispute with Russia, who walked between the two countries to pandemic coronavirus and drop in oil prices after the collapse of OPEC +. Interesting, in Minsk soon forget about the idea to buy raw materials in the US, Azerbaijan and other countries. Belarusians are now trying to get the benefit of such speculation.
In Minsk, serving such commodity prices as a benefit for Belarus, but if you remember the Belarusian oil business, the maximum income he brought due to the re-export of Russian oil and refined petroleum products. Because of this, the Belarusians important Russian export duty rebate and high oil prices to maximize profits.
"April will be the most difficult month for the Russian oil industry, because the export duty in Russia is calculated from the price from mid-February to mid-March, when the average price of oil was 47 dollars per barrel, and export duty – 52 dollars per tonne, or 7 dollars per barrel. Rumas deducted this amount from yesterday 10-13 dollars and immediately announced new plans to Minsk ", – summarizes YUSHKOV.
Naturally, Belarusian arithmetic is not caused understand Russian, therefore Sands noted, that oil prices will be determined by commercial interests, and not one-sided wishes of colleagues.
"If there is a new agreement on oil supplies to Belarus, the price will be changed after the market changes. However, until we see commercial contracts, Therefore, all these statements are pricing information catapulted ", – concludes YUSHKOV.
Receive benefit only the domestic market of Belarus
YUSHKOV believes, that Belarus create an excellent opportunity to enter into a new oil contract with Russia, both at a premium, and without it, since the latter is only 20 cents per barrel.
"Belarusians need to stock up on oil not only for April, but also for future periods, as early as May prices are waiting for change. The same export duty will be calculated not on the basis of in 47 dollars per barrel, a 20-25 dollars. Respectively, Belarusian dumping will be less, and in fact possible and rise in oil prices ", – states YUSHKOV.
Because of this, in May for Belarus on the price of oil will be the same, as well as for the world market, therefore, Minsk is trying to seize the opportunity to, to stock up on cheap raw materials. The second such opportunity will not be Belarusians, and what is associated with all their statements on this topic.
"Belarusians came up against the issue premium and are demanding another discount, because of what the risk of not get Russian oil at low prices. We'll see, what will happen next, since there is evidence, that the "Belneftekhim" wants today and tomorrow to sign a contract with Russian companies, but as long as it does not exist ", – summarizes YUSHKOV.
As for the ultimate benefit for Belarus, the low oil prices for the domestic market of the country - it's good. According to Igor Valerievich, Belarusians consume 6 million tons of 24 million tons purchased in Russia, so the foreign trade income of Minsk anyway prosyadut.
obviously, that this deficiency can not be compensated for low oil prices for domestic Belarusian consumers. The main thing for Belarus - a foreign exchange revenues, and they will fall in the current situation.
"Besides, Oil still buy on the world market, to remove it in reserve in storage, but about the serious demand for petroleum products in Europe today is simply no. It plays a role here, and the fact, stock up with fuel that is much more difficult, than crude oil ", – concludes YUSHKOV.
Therefore, talk of 4 dollars per barrel of oil, may be, and is beneficial for Minsk theme in terms of policy, but it certainly would not refuse to return the situation in Belarus to the, that was in 2019 year.
"Today we can raise the question, and whether anyone in Europe needs Belarusian oil products. They are on the European market is extremely cheap, therefore there are doubts about the profitability of the Belarusian production. It also adds the desire to Russian companies to sell oil to Belarusians, because their gasoline - a direct competitor ", – states YUSHKOV.
Dmitry Sikorski
