Turkish casualties in Syria continue to rise, while the situation in Idlib remains highly uncertain. Ankara has failed to fulfill its obligations to Russia and is trying to avoid mass outrage due to the senseless death of its military personnel.. Why is Turkey in a dead end?, launched an operation in Syria, - read the article Federal News Agency.
Master Corporal Umit Ugdyul was found dead in the city of Ras al-Ain in northern Syria. The soldier's body was found near 5 am 24 Martha. Turkish information resource Pervasız reported the incident, and this information soon spread on social networks.
Reports, that the soldier's death was due to suicide, were greeted with distrust in Turkey: 24-summer Ugdul got married just a month and a half ago, and the circumstances of his death remain unknown.. Many suspect, that Ankara is hiding real losses in Syria.
Chronicle of losses
After signing 5 Martha 2020 years of the Moscow agreements between Russia and Turkey, active hostilities in Syria ceased. However, the Turkish military continues to die as in the zone of operation "Source of Peace", and in the Idlib de-escalation zone.
6 Martha. A car bomb exploded at the Damylshliya checkpoint in the Hammam al-Turkman district in the suburb of Tell Abyad. The attack is attributed to Kurdish militants from the Kurdistan Workers' Party. Sources from the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) reported, that a militant of one of the armed groups died in the explosion, and a Turkish soldier was injured. The Turkish Ministry of Defense did not comment on this case..
12 Martha. Another car exploded in northern Syria. The goal was a common checkpoint of the Turkish Armed Forces and the police forces of the "Syrian National Army" (SLEEP) at Tell Halaf. According to official data, As a result of the explosion, a specialist corporal of the Turkish gendarmerie, Beyazit Bestami Bulush, died. At his funeral in Kyrykhan (Hatay) Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar personally attended.
However, according to SOHR, two Turkish soldiers and three SNA fighters were killed in the explosion in Tell Halaf., eight people were injured, including the Turks. And again, no information about the victims was published in official sources and the media..
18 Martha. Turkish Specialist Sergeant Sezayi Atabey dies of a heart attack near the city of Idlib.
19 Martha. Corporals Ramazan Nayir and Oguzhan Tash were killed in an attack by terrorists near the settlement of Mukhanbal, who participated in patrolling the M4 highway. These losses were officially recognized by the Turkish Ministry of Defense, the Turkish press wrote about them.
24 Martha. Another terrorist attack occurred on the M4 highway. In the area of the settlement of Sfuhon, two Turkish soldiers were injured when an IED exploded. The information was disseminated by the Russian Center for the Reconciliation of Warring Parties - the Turkish authorities did not report any losses.. Lack of messages caused bewilderment in Turkey.
Russians say: On joint patrol today on the M4 2 Turkish armored vehicle was attacked by radicals IED and 2 Turkish soldier wounded. The event is news according to Russia, but obviously not according to Ankara, we do not have an official statement yet.. https://t.co/gG3Bs9U4qL
— METIN GEORGIA (@Metin4020) March 24, 2020
On the same day, Umit Ugdül died under circumstances that have not yet been established..
Turkey hides
Turkish Defense Ministry says, that they publish full information about the losses in their troops. However, we know, it is not so: for publishing "undesirable" messages, Turkish publications can easily be hit. A military expert commented on the situation to a FAN correspondent, editor in chief of information-analytical center "Kassad" Boris Rozin.
“Turkey carried out various activities to underestimate its losses in Syria and Libya.. Because of Libya, eg, harassed journalists, who spoke about the death of the Turkish military", - noted the interlocutor of FAN.
Earlier, the editors of the Rybar Telegram channel in their column on the FAN spoke about the fate of the journalists of the Turkish online publication OdaTV, whose employees were arrested, and the site was blocked due to a publication about the unmarked grave of an MIT Turkish intelligence officer who died in Libya.
Journalists accused of disclosing state secrets and endangering national security, although government officials openly called the name of the deceased and even attended the funeral. The pressure on the press can be explained by the fact, that the Libyan issue is extremely sensitive for Ankara and President Erdogan personally.
Erdogan's falling rating
The Turkish government is extremely inconvenient and publications about new losses like in Idlib, and the zone of operation "Source of Peace", because they draw attention to Syria in Turkey itself. According to Boris Rozhin, losses in Idlib underestimate, since Erdogan's rating during the operation was constantly falling.
“From February to March, he sank on 7%, at the same time, according to polls, the invasion of Syria was supported by no more than 30-35% the population. Erdogan's support fell even more with the growth of losses and in the absence of any significant results. Trying to belittle the victims is a natural move in this situation., — explained the interlocutor of the Federal News Agency.
Many suspect, that in the last days, when one dies, then two Turkish military, there is simply a legalization of earlier losses. For each of the dead, it is necessary to look at what military units they belonged to and whether these units participated in the battles near Serakib, Nayrabom and other areas, where Turkish troops suffered losses".
Specific Commitments
Turkey sent a large group of troops and SNA militants to Idlib, however, achieved very modest success, once again unable to fulfill their obligations to Russia.
Even before the start of Russian-Turkish patrols along the M4 highway near the village of Arikha, militants forced civilians to protest against the Moscow agreements.
15 March militants have done everything, to prevent the Russian military police from entering the territory controlled by armed groups. 17 March the road was blocked by embankments. 20 March, the Turkish Armed Forces installed a barrier along the route, however, the very next day, unknown people dragged them to the side of the road.
Boris Rozhin emphasized, that Erdogan has specific obligations, including the fight against terrorists on the territory of Greater Idlib.
"You can use losses, to justify the operation against Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and other uncontrolled groups, but this does not require further justification., because Turkey recognized the HTS as terrorists back in 2018 year and undertook to squeeze them out of Idlib", - the interlocutor of the FAN recalled.
Waiting for new losses
On Monday, 23 Martha, Turkey announced, that she intends to conduct an operation against terrorists in the area of the M4 highway, to open the road for joint patrols - and the very next day, two Turkish soldiers were injured when an IED exploded, and then the bridge was blown up in the Ishtabrak area. HTS and other radical groups demonstrate to Erdogan, that an attempt to “clean up” Idlib will cost him dearly.
"Any operation against the HTS in Idlib will lead to an increase in Turkey's losses, - admitted Boris Rozhin. - However, in general, this is a problem., rather, political - whether Ankara considers this operation justified in the long run, would the costs be too high.
Erdogan will try to drag out the situation, maintaining the status quo. However, under pressure from Russia, Iran, It will be difficult for Syria and Turkey to continue this line - as practice has shown, it will end with a new offensive in Idlib and serious costs for Turkey.”.
Author: Valentin Melikov
