Presidents of the Russian Federation and Turkey Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdogan during the meeting 5 March in Moscow 2 o'clock 40 discussed for minutes behind closed doors, what to do with Idlib and the Turkish operation in Syria. We decided to.
FROM 00.01 6 March, a ceasefire was introduced throughout northern Syria, and the M4 highway and a corridor width 6 km from it turn into a “safe zone”, where joint patrols of the Turkish and Russian Armed Forces will be carried out.
In the Turkish segment of the Internet, Erdogan is accused of “leaking” and “betraying the memory of the dead”. Vladimir Putin's diplomatic skills are praised in the Syrian segment, assuring, that at this rate Assad would reach the Turkish border.
Right, actually, no.
Throughout February, Turkish armed forces consistently dug in in the vicinity of Syrian Idlib, one by one creating so-called “observation points” - or “observation posts”, what they were called on Russian social networks, — and consistently increasing the grouping of troops in Greater Idlib.
According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, the total strength of the Turkish contingent in Idlib is comparable to a mechanized division (and that, for a second, to 15 thousands of people), and between the M4 highway and the canton of Afrin it is deployed up to 15 "observation points".
If Syrian troops had gone on the offensive further, this would result in huge losses: like for the Syrian army, so do the Turks with their “green” cannon fodder - “opposition” militants. Fortified area, created between the cities of Idlib and Serakib and the intensified shelling and airstrikes of the Turkish side indicate that, that at the moment this is a fundamental issue for Ankara.
However, the experience of recent years clearly proves, that any agreement on Syria is just an attempt to delay the inevitable. The same Sochi agreements, with which de-escalation zones were created in southern Syria, East Huta, in the north of Homs province and Idlib. Three zones have been eliminated, and two of them - during military operations, another one was “gnawed off” about 40%.
We can not say, that this is some kind of solution to the Syrian conflict: after all, war is beneficial to all participants, therefore, active hostilities are frozen for now, but they don't stop.
to understand, that Ankara is not interested in maintaining the status quo, Suffice it to recall the attempts to delimit the “Syrian opposition”, which were undertaken by the Turkish authorities, as well as statements and comments, which accompanied the conclusion of the Sochi agreements. Then information about the supposed “imminent dispersal” of “Hayat Tahrir al-Sham” will leak to the media. (HTSH; previously - Jabhat al-Nusra, banned in the Russian Federation1)and the introduction of its structures into the so-called “Syrian National Army”, then Syrian sources claim, that allegedly “Türkiye refused to support the Islamic Party of Turkestan” (banned in Russia), then Erdogan again accuses Syrian troops of disrupting the ceasefire.
By March 2020 year we saw the launch of Operation Spring Shield and Turkey’s open support for illegal armed groups in Idlib. If it were the “Syrian National Army” or conditionally “moderate jihadists” from “Jabhat al-Wataniya Lil-Tahrir” ("National Liberation Front"), this could also be taken as “pulling an owl onto a globe”. However, Turkey supplied military equipment to Uzbek militants from the Katiba Tawhid wal-Jihad group. (banned in Russia), supplied weapons to the Islamic Party of Turkistan in the Al-Ghab Valley and transferred infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers to Hayat Tahrir al-Sham terrorists, making no distinction between jihadists and “opposition”.
With such an attitude towards fundamental issues of agreements and memorandums, will Turkey stop at the M4 line?? No.
The Turks’ strategy is to create a “security zone” along their southern borders - and now the territories occupied during Operation Peace Spring are actually cut off from the zone, occupied during Operations Olive Branch and Euphrates Shield, — Syrian Armenians live freely in the Kassab area, in Kobane, evil PKK militants threaten the Turks with a gun, and in Qamishli an insidious Christian militia is plotting against the “Sultan-Father”, which you don't feed with bread, let Nusaybin be beaten.
Talk about, that someone won in Idlib is fundamentally wrong. The parties received a break.
Türkiye will strengthen its position, will create a powerful fortified area, will train new units, will rotate fighters in Libya, taking the most militant to Idlib, and come up with something else - simply because he can and wants to.
Russia earned points in the field of “peacekeeping”, without allowing reputational losses after numerous strikes by Turkish UAVs and artillery on Syrian troops and the temporary loss of positions in Idlib.
Syria announced the liberation of the M5 highway at the cost of several hundred dead.
And while everyone exhaled.
Until the next turn of the wheel of Syrian Samsara, which cannot but happen - simply because, in addition to Russia and Turkey, the Syrian conflict is of interest to the ruling elites in the West, who are actively pouring fuel on the fire of the Middle East conflict.
Summer won't last forever: build nests (Summer doesn't last forever: fan nests).
1 Organization banned in Russia.
Author: fishermen
