Recent rapid replacement of the chairman of the Russian government in the expert community regarded as a preparation for Vladimir Putin to the global recession, which either is almost here, either already present in the short term. Under these circumstances, instead of a loyal prime minister to the president needed an effective manager.
"Without oil, can not live in the world, no?»
This paraphrases known operetta, carolers women, arose after the first acquaintance with some of the new expert appraisals, frightening the audience terrible pictures coming crisis, in which due to lower prices and demand for mineral raw materials Russia will lose most of the oil and gas revenues and sit on an empty ration lean economy.
To calm down and remove the panic, not necessarily drink drops. Putin's assessment of the need to remember, who called Russia in his Address to the Federal Assembly of the country self-sufficient, and easy to understand in all.
recall, eg, in Soviet times the authorities meticulously calculates the balance between industry groups A and B, which represented the first production of the means of production, and the second - consumer goods. Knowledgeable economists then tell people in detail, as this is the group B is now clothe, obuet, feed people and equip his life.
In the post-Soviet era priorities changed dramatically. Strongly liberal officials have made a bet on the export of minerals. The proceeds from the sale of currency decided to buy abroad the same goods in group B, and, if you're lucky, - A.
It got to the, that the West began to get even products for defense, until it burned to the French "Mistral" and Italian armored cars. Although completely eradicate the practice and failed. Now, eg, our ultra-modern warships put the ship furniture from "friendly" UK.
A new approach to the economy has created the term "oil needle". She pricked her painful crises in Russia 1997-1999, 2007-2009, 2014-2016 years. In the first and second cases, GDP fell by more than 10 percent. The most recent shock of Russia's economy slipped by 3,6%, moreover, "Helped" her in this more Western sanctions.
Diversification of the economy has brought results
As you can see, dynamics of change, however meme "oil needle" continues to walk across the expanses of the Russian media and numerous discussion meetings. To explain it simply. At first, influential oil lobby is trying to prove to the authorities and society and the importance of their value, and at the same time to knock yourself additional preferences.
Secondly, oil and gas revenues flowing to the federal budget. He's the most talked. After all, where the country's defense, the most important social and investment programs, national projects, etc.. The share of oil revenues are high. During the period of rampant liberal nineties, she rose above 60 percent. The Russian economy away from total dependence on oil.
Against this background, somehow forget, that the federal budget - large consolidated budget, which are contributed from all regions and all industries. The single treasury share of oil and gas companies drops to about a quarter of the total volume and is already comparable with the collection of personal income tax.
Objective picture gives statistics on the economy as a whole. it shows, that the oil and gas industry (with all its multiplicativity) pulls somewhere 8 percent of the total industrial production. The situation changes only when exporting products. In the context of long-standing protectionism in the global market to break through to the mineral raw materials a lot easier, than products with high added value.
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Nevertheless, their exports grow. Today Harvesters "Rostselmash" can be found even in Germany, Permian industrial robots company Promobot thousands went to America, and press the Voronezh plant "Tyazhmekhpress" took their place in many factories the world (in USA, France, Italy, Spain, Japan, Korea, China…), including, enterprises known automobile firms.
Export a list of great Russian. Here - the products of "Rosatom", mountain, drilling, metallurgical equipment, heavy cranes, excavators, diesel and electric locomotives, instruments and scientific equipment, military vehicles and weapons, airplanes and helicopters, vessels of different types, space technology, software, machines and tools, Common consumption goods, food, etc.. A separate article of budget revenues – agricultural exports, who beats records: crops, sugar, vegetable oils, animal feed, meat, egg, milk and milk products.
In general, for the eleven months of last year (more recent data unavailable) non-oil non-energy exports (NNE) Russia rose to 138 billions of dollars. This is still less, than the income from the sale of overseas mineral resources, but it is comparable to the GDP of the EU countries such as the, eg, Hungary.
Ministry of Finance forecasts show: the government expects further growth in non-oil exports. In September, after the approval of the federal budget the government for the years 2020-2022 the Ministry of Finance said: "The share of oil and gas revenues in the total revenues of the federal budget revenues will decrease from 40,8% at 2019 godu to 35% at 2022 year ". It means, we are waiting for the further diversification of the economy, which will mitigate the possible global risks.
As for the oil and gas industry, its role is still in our lives remains a large and significant. Branch gives Russia a competitive advantage over other countries, provides energy independence and security, fills the budget, It provides decent jobs for millions of people.
It is only important, to all of these wonderful qualities did not suppress the other sectors of the economy. They have their own big responsibility before the Russian society.
Gennady Granovsky
