Moscow negotiations and Gas Oil and Minsk are moving toward integration - says a leading expert of National Energy Security Fund, Lecturer Financial University under the Government of Russia Igor YUSHKOV.
Oil and gas are the backbone of the Russia-Belarus talks
Belarus Ministry of Energy reported, that in February and January 2020 This year the country will receive from the Russian gas for 127 dollars per thousand cubic meters, that demonstrates, as the stability of prices for Minsk, and the continuation of the Russian-Belarusian talks.
Recall, that at the end of last year, Belarus announced, that oil and gas will be supplied to Belarus on the basis of non-contractual. This circumstance has led to, that oil supplies to Belarus were stopped, though judging by the statements of the company "Transneft", The reason for this is the lack of applications from Russian suppliers of such transaction.
And this is impossible without the request of the Belarusian partners.
Side of this issue has been fully resolved 31 December, so we see another Display fluktatsiya, so characteristic of Belarus in recent months,. This is due in Minsk requirements to obtain compensation for the tax maneuver in Russia, which will continue in the country to 2024 of the year. This is exactly what is the cause of all the loud statements of Belarus oil.
Gas also have unreasonable demands Belarus, lead to price demand, in the Smolensk region, but Moscow at such a discount will not go, because it means direct subsidies to Belarus from the Russian budget. Because the cost of gas in the Smolensk region is the result of budgetary subsidies, so it is not market-driven, even for Russia.
Besides, Belarus's economy can not exist without Russian oil and gas, so these supplies, anyway, continue, but Minsk is yet to rely on extra-base, to try to get from Moscow some preferences.
"I think, here the question is about the integration of our states. We are talking about this, rather than on energy prices and other conditions of bilateral cooperation between Russia and Belarus, which are still on the backburner ", – concludes YUSHKOV.
After today's negotiation process with Belarus permeates theme integration, where the message of the Russian side is clear - Moscow is ready to go to the trade and economic concessions to Minsk in exchange for accommodating the integration of Belarusians.
"Belarus does not want to go to the establishment of a framework of a single state, but within the framework of deep integration and road maps, which are now negotiated Moscow and Minsk, conversation talking about this ", – states YUSHKOV.
As noted by the expert, Belarus wants, that energy prices have not changed and remained at the same level, and this is impossible in view of the situation in the energy markets, therefore, Minsk will have to choose between the increase in prices and demand in Moscow.
Intercom advantage on the side of Moscow
"At present, the parties can not agree on, how to further continue their cooperation in the field of energy. Belarus wants to price stability, but an intergovernmental agreement on gas, whereby Minsk buying gas in our country for 130 dollars per thousand cubic meters, completed, and domestic oil prices in Russia continue to grow ", – concludes YUSHKOV.
In such situation, Considering, Belarus requires that gas prices below 130 dollars per thousand cubic meters, Belarusian realistic conditions only, If our country would agree to new concessions, but it will happen only in response to the necessary solutions Moscow Minsk.
"As oil, in connection with the tax maneuver, we have to 2024 the year will decrease the export duty and mineral extraction tax increase, so the price of crude oil for the refinery of Russia and Belarus will grow, but our businesses will be compensated from the budget in the form of return of excise duty. Belarusians are also identified for this approach, but it is absurd, because we are two different countries ", – summarizes YUSHKOV.
We can not say, that the spread of vnutribyudzhetnyh Russian concessions to Belarus impossible, but it will happen only in the case, if Minsk will at least for the integration of our economies, but even that the Belarusian government considers a threat to its sovereignty.
Therefore, all negotiations between Moscow and Minsk are on Russian concessions to the balance sheet and the overall level of integration of Russia and Belarus.
"Belarusians are now stopped oil purchases in Russia and talk about Saudi raw materials and other alternatives. This is due to the fact, they have managed to accumulate in their stores large volumes of oil, It is giving them room for maneuver ", – states YUSHKOV.
Naturally, Minsk is not going to give up on Russian energy, because they have no alternative, even in the face of new price quotations in Russia, but it allows Belarusians to continue its policy of pressure. It is not just, Minsk does not sign contracts for oil and gas - definitely, Belarusians are hoping to achieve the most favorable conditions.
"As the gas is still more difficult for Belarus, because even in theory, they have no alternative to Russian raw materials. For this reason, any stories to the suspension of supplies of energy resources in Minsk is not in sight ", – concludes YUSHKOV.
Generally, Russia has a strong position here, due to which Belarus will have to make concessions.
Dmitry Sikorski
