Integration processes between Russia and Belarus have entered the most difficult phase, says the President of the Russian Association for Baltic Studies Nikolai Mezhevich.
Russia and Belarus cannot refuse integration
note, that today Russian President Vladimir Putin and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko had a telephone conversation, in which they discussed the topic of preparing integration documents between Moscow and Minsk.
Not advertised, what exactly did Putin and Lukashenko talk about, but stated, that during the conversation, the friendly and fraternal nature of relations between Moscow and Minsk was emphasized. However, Despite this, obviously, that Russia and Belarus will defend their interests to the last, therefore, the search for a compromise in this strategic project will not be easy.
“The integration process is now at the most difficult stage, since Minsk, and Moscow are well aware, what if there is no document for the anniversary of the treaty on the union state, then there will be talk about the failure of this project, and it is important to note here, that it will fail, as for our country, as well as for Belarus”, – states Mezhevich.
Respectively, as the expert believes, it complicates the task, since the parties have different views on integration processes, where they can not neglect their interests, although at the same time they cannot refuse unifying initiatives.
"One side, Moscow and Minsk have completely different views on the economic and political content of the integration documents, and on the other hand, neither Russia, nor Belarus can leave the negotiating table and say, "you know, we won't sign anything, something we really wanted”, – summarizes Mezhevich.
In this way, the parties need to come to some kind of large-scale agreement, although it is not yet clear, what will be its actual volume, and it is precisely about this that difficult negotiations are now underway between Russia and Belarus.
"In this way, there is currently an extremely complex behind-the-scenes process of negotiating every comma, each sign and each ruble, because it is based on mutual financial interest and mutual financial relations”, – Mezhevich concludes.
The degree of integration is not yet clear
Actually, still unclear, how far the parties are willing to go in this process – are they willing to go here only to compromise, agreeing only, what is profitable for them, or strategic concessions are possible, when Moscow and Minsk sacrifice their interests for the sake of, to create an efficient and workable joint system on this issue.
“The search for a compromise involves certain sacrifices, and Moscow and Minsk are really ready to make certain concessions. Also, any such integration process involves significant concessions”, – states Mezhevich.
Notably, that the integration process of Russia and Belarus has been in the light of media attention for half a year, and not so long ago there was information, that Moscow and Minsk have allegedly already agreed on a contractual package, suggesting this degree of integration, which will be higher than, what exists today between the member states of the European Union.
While these conversations are not officially confirmed, and no documents on this subject have been published, therefore, even in the case of their presence, this can be said very conditionally, after all, they will become integrated only then, When will they be presented to the general public?.
Also, very interesting, what will come first - the single currency, single financial and banking space, a single energy market or the integration of Russia and Belarus will proceed on a more modest scale, than initially expected.
Russia and Belarus agree on a framework for further integration
“It’s not just premature to talk about a single currency between Russia and Belarus, and even funny. Here you can imagine the situation, when a man and a woman have not yet begun to meet, and there was already talk about a joint child. ie. in a situation, when they haven't met yet, and so - we saw each other several times on Skype ”, – summarizes Mezhevich.
According to Nikolai Maratovich, these integration processes need to be approached patiently, since, within the framework of this issue, the parties will act gradually and are unlikely to go for a radical acceleration of the existing process.
"We, of course, see something more here, than Skype conversations, but the joint currency is the highest point in the highest integration, therefore, it is too early to talk about such actions in relations between Moscow and Minsk today”, – Mezhevich concludes.
Mezhevich believes, that so far there is not even a talk about a single financial space, since today it is necessary to develop such programs of cooperation, which will become the basis for further integration processes.
“We need to link cooperation between related enterprises, so that there is no internal competition. After all, there is a MAZ, and there is KAMAZ, there is the Bryansk plant of agricultural machines, but there is the Gomel Plant of Agricultural Machines. So the parties will now carry out this boring practical work at the level of specific enterprises.”, – states Mezhevich.
This is exactly, what specific Russian and Belarusian enterprises need, and that, what will be the beginning of the integration process.
Dmitry Sikorski
