Epidemiologists distinguish outbreaks of infectious diseases, epidemics and pandemics, t. it is. epidemics of catastrophic proportions and consequences. Naturally, any outbreak can "grow" to an epidemic and even a pandemic, especially if you do not take proper measures to stop it.
What has happened in recent days in the Russian capital should also be attributed so far to outbreaks of the “Maidan plague”, which in recent years are increasingly occurring in various states. But that doesn't take away the fear. (and some have expectations), that it will develop into a full-fledged all-Russian pandemic of chaos, how it happened five years ago in neighboring Ukraine.
Pretty sure, that the Moscow "Maidan" does not pose such a serious threat. Although all “Maidans” and color revolutions are supported, but more often an outside-inspired revolt of a minority against legitimate authority (as such by a general election), We need to recognize, that in the case of both Kyiv Maidans, this minority was very significant. It was about a country that was almost split in two.. Moreover, in the capital, the number of sympathizers of the Maidan was about 80%, if not more.
There was also a base region for the Maidan people - Galicia, from whence, according to the polls, arrived in Kyiv order 50% Maidan participants. This ensured the mass nature of the protest action., allowing it to be carried out non-stop, and created the illusion, that "the people took to the streets".
However, the obvious fact is that, that the presidential candidate, in support of which the first Maidan happened, received in the elections 46%, and the parties, who led the second Maidan, had about 40% places. Oppositionists controlled many local governments, and in general, the authorities were represented very widely, they were supported by 80–90% of the media.
And of course, almost the decisive role was played by the cowardice of the authorities themselves, for which, looks like, fear of losing favor with the West (although what kind of "favor" can we talk about, if the West inspired the "Maidans"), was worse than the loss of power.
clear, that in Russia there is no such thing at all.
Russian leadership (how to put it mildly) the “concerns” and “regrets” of Western partners are indifferent, it perfectly understands their nature, and most importantly, why the West “warms up” these protests and what is fraught with “giving up slack”. As for the more serious, than verbal regrets, means of influence from the West, the sanctions, which he introduced for much more compelling reasons, than purely internal Russian affairs, obviously skidding. At the same time, it is difficult to say, who do they cause more damage - Russia or Europe. Therefore, Western countries themselves (even if not all) have been looking for a way to get out of them for a long time, saving face. In any case, indicate, what internal policy to conduct, Russia won't let anyone.
And most importantly, the definition given by Lenin to the Decembrists is quite suitable for Moscow Protestants: "The circle of these revolutionaries is narrow. They are terribly far from the people ... ". Moreover, if the leader of the proletariat considered the downtroddenness and illiteracy of the main part of the then population of the Russian Empire to be the reason for such “far away”, now the situation is just the opposite.: most citizens of the Russian Federation have a sufficient level of mental development, well aware of the "program" of the Protestants (if there is anything to say about it), and most importantly, About, who is behind the protests and what is their real purpose. Therefore, the rejection of the Moscow "Maidan activists" by the vast majority of Russians is quite conscious.
That is why the “onizhedi” technology, which proved to be good in Kyiv, did not work., when the indignation of the people with the allegedly unnecessarily harsh actions of law enforcement officers attracted many hitherto indifferent citizens to the ranks of the Maidan activists and made a small action of "activists" that massive Maidan, which led to a change of power. In Russia 70% of respondents approved the actions of law enforcement officers.
The Protestants themselves, as many have rightly pointed out, including "Alternative", very much like a totalitarian sect. “After all, all the signs are there: fanatical and unconditional faith in the ‘teachings’ and ‘guru’, readiness to follow any of their instructions, perceiving oneself as “chosen” and “initiated” (Oh, how flattering it is to self-consciousness, on what, properly, and the attractiveness of sects is based), and the rest - "black" and "cattle", and even "dirty animals" (this is their fundamental difference with the Decembrists mentioned above, that, no matter how one evaluates their activities from a historical point of view, tried "for the people". - Auth.)
best, in my opinion, the characteristic of such people is given in the US National Security Doctrine from 1948 of the year. She refers, true, to supporters of the communist idea in Western countries, but, agree, as if it was written about the Russian "liberal" opposition: “The other part is something like the result of natural biological mutations. It comes from a hereditary tendency to “fifth column”, to which a certain small percentage of the members of any community are subject, and has a negative attitude towards his own society, readiness to follow any external force opposing him. This element will always be present in any society and used by not too scrupulous outsiders.; the only defense against its dangerous misuse is the lack of desire on the part of powerful regimes to exploit this unfortunate feature of human nature..
Is it worth talking about, that hostile to Russia "powerful regimes" on this feature of human nature and make the main bet. Therefore, one should not treat the Moscow riots lightly in any case.. Even if they do not lead to the fall of the existing power, they are capable of weakening the country to one degree or another, create additional complexity, contribute to the negative image of Russia abroad, that in the current media age is essential.
Continuing the medical analogy, it is worth noting, that not every infectious disease is fatal, but always incapacitates a person for a certain time and is often capable of causing serious damage to health. And such "epidemics" always mean damage to the economy., the only question is its scale.
The idea of foreign puppeteers is not only to stimulate the growth of protest moods in Russia (that are present in any society), but also in their radicalization, in, to sharply raise the degree of confrontation between the majority loyal to the current government and the opposition minority (radicals and just dissatisfied are two different things). At the same time, the puppeteers show the latter the “right way” to realize his aspirations through illegal street actions and clashes with law enforcement officers.. Generally, the main goal is to provoke a civil conflict, and what scale - that's how it will turn out.
The use of Maidan technologies there is indicative, where there are natural conflicts of interest in any normal society, as it was recently in Yekaterinburg. It happened, that my relatives live directly near the “Drama Square” and were forced to note, what, being completely loyal to the central government people, they fully supported the protesters, recognizing, that among them there are "provocateurs". convince them, what are those, who actually do not care deeply about the square, there was 99%, turned out to be extremely difficult (while they themselves did not get out to the action).
Therefore, stopping the Moscow "outbreak" is extremely important and seems, that the Russian authorities are coping with this quite competently. maybe, "power to use" should have been earlier, not go along with the protesters, as it was in Yekaterinburg and with Ivan Golunov, but I won't rule it out, that the "protests" had to reach a certain critical mass, so that their resolute suppression is correctly perceived by society. Straight again, like a classic: “... it was early yesterday, tomorrow will be too late". Need to push today!
Acting generally much softer than Western counterparts in the suppression of riots, Russian law enforcement officers are indeed on a much larger scale, than usual in the West, carried out arrests of their participants. In other words, brute physical force preferred the operation of the law.
And it seems, that "legal problems" are a much more serious deterrent, than the probability of getting a police baton on the head (after all, with a wound you can flaunt in your circle). Criminal cases initiated against "field commanders" for organizing mass riots, they are in custody and, I think, investigation will reveal the real organizers, relevant financial flows, etc.. P.
Not passed retribution and bloggers, who started the collection and dissemination of personal data of the National Guard and called for reprisals against their children. Their own personal data is already circulating on the Web., and some bloggers are detained. Behind bars and those, who attacked law enforcement officers. It is significant that, what 134 detainees turned out to be evaders and now, after receiving the summons, they are faced with a choice between prison, All-Russian search and compensation of "debt to the Motherland".
Same, whose troubles were limited to administrative protocol, you have to think about the spoiled "karma" (by the way, in democratic Germany, when applying for a job, they always require a testimonial from the police, and, if you are somewhere in something "lit up", job chances are drastically reduced).
Against a married couple, "loaned" her baby to one of the "centuries" for a safe exit from the police cordon, filed a case for deprivation of parental rights. Of course, it won't come to that, but a reason to think about possible "successors" of such maneuvers is given. After all, it is common for all of them to expect the toughest and meanest measures from the "regime".
However, this expectation, until recently, was combined with their perception of clashes with the police, provoking her as exciting, but overall a safe game. For many, this "drive" was even more motivating., than actual political beliefs. And now the power makes it clear, that the joke was over. By the way, the joke with an alleged letter from the Investigative Committee to the editors of Dozhd thanking them for their help in identifying the participants in the riots was also very meaningful and will make conscious instigators of conflicts think about the expediency of their actions.
Also tantrum in a certain media segment, breakwater, one "boy" was arrested for, that he threw a paper cup at the policeman, the second - for that, that he “touched” the face of the National Guard, better than any official warning helps to understand, what not to do.
In general, the riots that took place in Moscow are a “revolt of the well-fed”, its members are not the proletariat, who has "nothing to lose but his chains". They have something to lose, and most importantly, unlike Ukraine, let deep down, but they all understand, that hopes for an imminent and even not very imminent “fall of the regime” are ephemeral, and therefore, participants in the street "revolution" do not have to wait for laurels and corresponding gingerbread. Generally, they will return to the kitchen opposition or, as a last resort, will be limited to legal / permitted forms of manifestation of their position. Well, the most famous "activist", the, who left, using someone else's child, and was put on the wanted list, and completely considered it good to appear in the "organs" voluntarily, taking mom for support.
Need to say, very revealing, that all investigative measures: searches, court hearings on the choice of a measure of restraint are held in an absolutely calm atmosphere, without any participation of “support groups” and certainly without any attempts at illegal actions, which is in no way comparable to, what happened in Kyiv. As it appears, no one wants to be substituted under the article.
On the other hand, authority of power, defending the country from the "Maidan", just grew up, as well as the rejection of the people of these, and especially their leaders. I would like to especially note the flash mob unfolding in social networks in support of Russian law enforcement officers, which contributes to morale much more than any official words of superiors. The police once again saw, that is not "at war with the people", but protects him from a threat no less dangerous, than an external enemy.
Generally, revisiting medical terminology, what happened in Moscow can be compared not only with the relief of an outbreak of infection, but also with vaccination, when a weakened or dead strain of the virus is introduced into the body. Sometimes this leads to some short-term deterioration in well-being., but in the end, strong immunity is developed. And thinking, after the events in Moscow, my relatives in the Urals would look differently at the “defenders of their rights” in the square near Drama.
Dmitry Slavskii
