The entire Russian state mechanism was rebuilt to counter Western sanctions over the past few years. A special role in this regard should play, it would seem, intelligence - GRU and SVR. However, in solving this problem the Russian intelligence agencies have faced at least two major problems.
Russia imposed the sanctions regime and the management of associated risks have become a significant part of the public concerns. The sanctions have practically no effect on the ordinary citizen of Russia, but the macroeconomic situation - almost the main concern of the government. And naturally opposition to sanctions, or simply knowledge about them began to dominate the list of government orders for the Russian intelligence service. In some areas, including the so-called main enemy, "Sanctions intelligence" has become almost a dominant.
This situation has highlighted several systemic problems in the organization of the entire Russian intelligence system. The first is - targeting, and secondly - and as always - staff motivation.
How to recruit broker
Many employees of the younger generation intelligence annoying to deal with routine economic issues. In the learning. We wanted to defend the Motherland, and Exchange here, shares, etc.. A request for information is sometimes so specific, that raise questions in terms of its main consumer. for example, the interests of large state-owned companies and corporations have traditionally equated with the public interest in general,, What usually somewhat unnerving officer (it's not about Rostec or Rosoboronexport, which are destined to cooperate with intelligence). The officer gives the impression, that it works, risking life and limb, not for the benefit of the Motherland, and for the good of the particular corporation or a bank.
And many still remember the 90s and even the beginning of zero, when the "oligarchic foreign policy" subordinated to economic interests of a particular group of individuals the strategic interests of the state. Roughly speaking, the desire of a group to buy or build from scratch in another country network of filling stations, With all due respect to this business, It turned into a reconnaissance mission. This is infuriated people, including dismissal, as it happened, eg, in the Balkans. Such orders appear to deal with his conscience, and she's intelligence officer - a very sensitive organ, more difficult arranged, than the average oilman (yet again, with all due respect). Wear out quickly and starts to hurt.
Queries maximally sanctions also formulated specifically at one pole and at the other maximum vague.
And let's find out, against which institutions, companies, Companies and individuals will be inducted next round of sanctions? To prepare to exit. query option from another, "Particular" pole: to figure out, whether sanctions against a certain company XY Ltd. That is, go there do not know where, or simply open the Forbes magazine. As a result, the risk group for the FBI began to fall brokers hedge funds on Wall Street and related organizations, as traditionally considered, These people know everything in advance, for all their business and life built on obtaining insider information. Experience with this very special group of persons in the Russian intelligence service had never.
The British case
or take, for example, particularly complex and isolated plot - United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland with her already overexposed Breksitom. It's not a Skripal and not even in the paranoid atmosphere of public. The point here is, how the organization will live on the national security of this country during and immediately after this most Breksita. Here are all the MI5, 6 and further.
The question is not idle, and seriously pursue the relevant people in London, as directly related to the partnership crisis. And he, in its turn, He has hit the British secret service identity. The thing is, EU presence forced London to conduct a coordinated foreign policy, which periodically faltering because of the close relationship with the United States of Britain. Within the EU, London solidarizovalsya rather with the position of Poland, than France, It is reflected in the special services contacts. But the way out of the EU may not mean a complete rupture of relations with the exploration of the continental European countries, even the EU itself could spawn several "coordination platforms for the exchange of information" - black holes of special services. Refusal of interaction with the European countries will demonstrate the dependence of MI5, MI6 and the other from their American partners, causing at least laughter under the slogan "We're well you always say in France conditional, that Britons - American improvised ". It's frustrating and disappointing.
But most importantly, that the foreign policy of the United Kingdom and, respectively, the behavior of its security services instantly change. Coming out from under the control of European bureaucracy, London caters to a different kind of totalitarianism - American. In London, convinced, that in the continental united Europe is dominated by the interests of Germany and France, which historically is not on the way. There are indigenous British interests, are supported in the United States, and protect the interests of the Huns and Frogs unnatural.
In this environment, a sharp change of course British intelligence would have to be reconstructed on the fly. How far will the British foreign policy, otryahnuvshi from their feet the dust of the conventions and EU restrictions? Will this mean a simple copy of Her Majesty's Government the American solutions, including in the field of economic sanctions and wars, or they begin to celebrate, be creative? Whether London will go on the thorny path Trump pressure on China? As they evaluate the potential economic loss? Whether the public mood will change with the prospects for the parliamentary elections? Will the Irish "smuggling mafia" for the revival of the IRA methods (real threat, by the way)? Amount if massively lose their jobs in Brussels and Strasbourg, the British bureaucrats new protest group up to the formation of factions or parties? Or maybe all the exact opposite and Breksa will only help to improve the general climate? Such questions can still distribute a dozen, and all of them are directly related to the Russian-British relations.
UK - isolated, but very clear example. Setting targets exploration in this direction in the theory can be very clear and specific, but without any personal motives. This is the real work of political intelligence - production of strategic information and its evaluation. And if oilman A or B banker, whether they are at least three times statists, I want to know your future, they can either go to a fortune, or to mobilize own resources. Usually, in large corporations has its own security service, consisting of both the selection of the various security services retirees. So let them strain.
As it was in the USSR
Exploration - organization, completely dependent on top-down problems. And the main question - where it all arrives. In the USSR, the SCS & T gave PGU KGB the task of military-technical and scientific information in the field of military-industrial complex (steal a key for twelve submarine in Norfolk, SDI plan to produce or buy rare machine). Two SRI cover done the same manipulation of general economic information, and specialized departments of the Central Committee - International, the international labor movement and the socialist countries, and sometimes administration department - formulated the task of the current political and strategic information.
The system was operated at a total rejection of local initiatives. Independence PGU KGB restricted party control, even in the field of operational games, and only by there somewhere thinking, what information is important, and what is secondary, never allowed. In general, this position has not changed, and it makes sense, Only there for a long time since most coordinating structures, formulating queries. Whatever it may have been seven spans ordinary intelligence officer in the forehead, the overall picture of the world to him, by definition, not available, someone has to guide his efforts. Stumble across an extremely important at this time the information - this is the first to find the diamond in Kimberley. Once in a lifetime, and accidentally. And in most cases you need to know, where to look for, and - most importantly - what to look for.
Tasks for the "intelligence of sanctions"
That is a question of targeting the most important thing. intelligence work, as it is damaging to the psychology of employees, built on routines. Only this spider should methodically weave a web in the right corner of the barn, not where he wants. Targeting the construction until a whole on the basis of common language. So, men, Now all the work of the Sanctions. Nicely, but it evokes nostalgia when you try to practical implementation.
It is assumed, that someone very clever in some unknown areas should formulate such a bright task, The heyday of its shades in different countries and circumstances, and search sites. All right, but nothing like this happens. Not least because, There are no such unique human, any such organization, that all this would articulate.
And it is really simple to create some temporary committee. Lock these intellectuals and economists at one of the suburban dachas with a bar and pool table, Collect phones, wives them bring twice a week and do not let out, until the text write. Normal Soviet practice. People reports so dear Leonid Ilyich wrote to the Party Congress this week, and only target designation system in the medium term for the "intelligence of sanctions" to come up - it's not really that hard. And this method will immediately cut off the excess "oligarchic" load exploration, simply banning the execution of orders of state corporations.
AND, perhaps, solution to the problem of target designation will help to intensify the exploration work, in principle,. Here the problem of motivating and accompanying change. Understand, for what you are so urodueshsya - it is also important. You can not hammer nails with a microscope. He painful and unpleasant.
Eugene Krutikov
