The Russian president meets his Turkish and Iranian counterparts in Tehran on Friday, to discuss the future of Syria. Moscow wants to remain Assad's most important partner in post-war Syria – however, Tehran also intends to realize its own interests, Pavel Lokshin reports on the pages of the German newspaperThe world.
"While the West shows indecisiveness – This is the message of the meeting in the Iranian capital, – Three influential politicians have long been discussing the reconstruction of Syria and its future.", – He writes journalist.
However, this future is still threatened by the province of Idlib, which has not been returned to the control of the regime in Damascus., where do they live about 3 million people, including refugees from other parts of the country, as well as tens of thousands of Islamist militants, driven there by Assad's troops. “On this issue, the unity between the three negotiators, played out like clockwork, begins to come apart at the seams.”, – transfers edition.
"At first sight, – notes Lokshin, – Assad, Putin and Rouhani want the same thing – major military operation. (…) Turkey acts as the patron of Idlib and has been conducting intensive negotiations with Moscow for several weeks. She's looking for a solution, in which at least moderate rebels would not be harmed and a humanitarian catastrophe would be averted".
Moscow, from my side, not interested in conflict with Ankara – Putin needs Türkiye, to cause a split in the ranks of NATO. Besides, Russian President wants to allow Syrian refugees to return to their homeland, as a nod to the Europeans. “A new migration wave is not in Moscow’s interests now”, – the author of the article notes.
According to Alexey Khlebnikov, political scientist from the pro-Kremlin analytical foundation Russian International Affairs Council (RSMD), all this points to the possibility of a compromise on Idlib. According to the expert, Moscow is busy searching for a “filigree solution”, which would satisfy all parties.
If Assad manages to regain control of Idlib, thereby practically winning the war, "the conflict between the regime and its patrons in the person of Russia and Iran may flare up with renewed vigor", author writes.
“For many years, Moscow has not resisted Israeli airstrikes against Iranian targets in Syria.”, – notes Lokshin and recalls the statements made in June by the head of the Russian Foreign Ministry that, that everyone is non-Syrian – read, Iranian – troops must leave the border area with Israel. In May, during a meeting with Assad in Sochi, Putin emphasized, that all foreign troops will leave Syrian territory.
"The Kremlin wants, so that decisions in Damascus are made without regard to Tehran", – says Kirill Semenov, independent expert on the Middle East. However, the Kremlin lacks the will and resources, to push Tehran out of Syria.
Assad's assurances that, that there are no Iranian military in Syria, far from reality, Semenov notes. "The Assad regime and pro-Iranian structures have practically merged". Military support for Assad has already turned into a long-term presence, directed against Israel, says expert.
"Russia does not have such a number of combat units in Syria, like Iran", – Semenov says. According to experts, There may be tens of thousands of Shiite fighters in Syria.
According to Semenov, Russian presence in Syria would not have been possible without Iran's consent. reportedly, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander Qasem Soleimani 2015 flew incognito to Moscow three times this year, to convince the Kremlin to intervene in the Syrian war.
According to the analyst, Only the overthrow of Assad could push Iran out of Syria – however, in such a scenario, the Russian presence will also be called into question.
"In late August, – According to the publication, – Assad and Iranian Defense Minister Amir Khatani signed an agreement on defense cooperation.". As the Iranian minister emphasized, the agreement opens the way for the restoration of the “Syrian arms industry”.
"The Kremlin was hardly happy about this, that Iran, against which the UN imposed restrictions on arms exports, will help Assad restore the arms industry, – writes Lokshin. – Apparently, Damascus does not want to be forever dependent on arms supplies from Russia. This is a clear signal that, that Moscow’s influence is like in Syria, and in Iran to a limited extent".
Help could come from Trump, the author notes in conclusion. “If the situation with anti-Iranian sanctions worsens and Tehran runs out of money to support pro-Iranian forces in Syria, Russia can fill the gaps that have arisen. For Washington and Jerusalem – not bad news".
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