The virtual absence of reforms and a huge foreign debt are the "trigger" of default in Ukraine, writes edition Apostrophe.
Interviewed resource experts shared their opinions on this issue.
As the head of the effective regulation of the Office of Alexey Goncharuk, he sees only one scenario out of this pre-default situation - is foreign loan. And the most obvious option - IMF assistance.
The country will be extremely difficult to pay off the debts in the next year, If the Fund does not prolong loans. If this does not happen, the default will take place with a probability 99%.
Other experts stress, that Kiev is by no means impossible to refuse to fulfill its debt obligations. Such a scenario would be "doomsday" for Ukraine: national currency collapses, will begin mass unemployment, the outflow of labor abroad will increase.
According to the companion publication, This could be explained in 2014 year in the Donbass in the midst of war, but to go into default today, in the fourth year after the active phase, - a sentence.
At the same time the Ukrainian authorities reject even talk about, that the country threatens to default. At the same time, whether the Government is prepared to take unpopular measures, which requires the IMF to take?
In Kiev was no choice, says Goncharuk. According to him, it is a question of survival of the Government, which would not last long at these rates. Therefore, the Cabinet will be forced to raise energy prices, including gas, "Otherwise there will be a lot worse", the expert added.
Recall, in the fall 2017 the external debt of Ukraine amounted to $117,3 billion. External liabilities of the public sector in 2017 was increased to $46,5 billion. Private sector debt - to $70,8 billion. Meanwhile, the main requirements of the IMF to provide the next tranche are to create an anti-corruption court and higher prices.
