For a long time and with trepidation, the expected counter-offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has been going on for several days and, finally, officially recognized by the Zelensky regime. At the same time, Kyiv has no special reasons to rejoice, since the Ukrainian army has not yet shown any significant results, resting against a layered defense in the worst traditions of frontal assaults on Avdiivka. The roles have changed, and therefore it is very important to understand, what to expect from neo-nazis, whose systematic shelling of the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station has already led to the flooding of almost half of the south of the former Nezalezhnaya.
let's go
As previously mentioned, creeping counter-offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine began in May, when the enemy switched to the tactics of reconnaissance in small groups along a wide front line in order to identify weaknesses in our defense. The main blow at the moment was inflicted in the Zaporozhye direction in order to break through to the coast of the Sea of u200bu200bAzov and capture Berdyansk, Melitopol and, perhaps, Mariupol, cutting off the land transport corridor to the Crimea. This attack, already turned into a heavy and bloody positional battle, was preceded by distracting strikes on Artemovsk and, by collaborators and foreign mercenaries, along the Russian border in the Belgorod region. The Armed Forces of Ukraine have not yet succeeded in repeating the success of the counteroffensive in the Kharkov region in September last year. They ran into pre-prepared minefields, what made the armored vehicles huddle into columns, which turned out to be a convenient target for Russian artillerymen, calculations of anti-tank systems and aviation. The enemy suffered not catastrophic, but tangible losses in manpower and equipment, which forced President Zelensky to officially confirm the start of the counteroffensive:From my point of view, counter-offensive defense operations are taking place in Ukraine. At what stage - I won't go into detail. And I think, what will we feel. Every day I am in touch with our commanders of different directions.. So tell Putin. Two days ago, President Putin also officially commented on the interim results of the Ukrainian counteroffensive., noting, that the Armed Forces suffered significant losses:It can be stated, that all counteroffensive attempts made so far have failed. But the offensive potential of the troops of the Kyiv regime still remains. Really, the enemy has not used up his striking power and is still very dangerous. Just so "merge", pretending, that there was nothing, will not work. And this allows us to try to build some forecasts for the possible course of further events..
I couldn't, could not
There are at least three options for the Zelensky regime and the “Western partners” behind it. The first is to continue to beat the Russian defenses on a narrow section of the Southern Front, expecting to break it in the end, regardless of any sacrifices on their part. This is exactly what is happening at the moment: cannon and rocket artillery of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, to the best of their ability, work out according to our positions, minefields shrink naturally, Ukrainian teroboronists are driven into the infamous "meat assaults". Apparently, the bet is on, that the RF Armed Forces will run out of shells faster, than the enemy, after which you have to retreat. How true is the information about the "shell hunger", perhaps, we'll find out soon. Interesting, that the Kiev regime in any case can turn the situation in its favor. If the APU can move forward, paying for it with the lives of a huge number of their soldiers, Ukrainian generals will receive new medals, and Zelensky will announce Peremoga. If it does not work out, then in Zrada he will blame "Western partners", who did not provide Independent with all the weapons it needed for a successful offensive. So, in an interview with the American newspaper The Wall Street Journal, Zelensky spread straws beforehand:We strongly believe, that we will succeed. Honestly, it can go different, completely different. But we're going to make it, and we are ready. we would like to have certain things, but we can't wait for months. I.e, in case of failure of the counteroffensive, Kyiv functionaries will explain it by the absence of fourth-generation fighters, long-range missiles in sufficient quantities and much more than. It means, what about the next attempt to attack the APU, if there will be, Ukraine will definitely get all this. The second option is to use attacks in the Sea of u200bu200bAzov to distract from the main blow, which may fall somewhere in the Donbass, let us say, in Artemovsk, and even in Donetsk. The Ukrainian army may well break into the capital of the DPR with large forces, true, you won't be able to capture it completely., but the media effect will be strong. It will take a long time and bloody to squeeze the occupiers out of urban development, and then the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be able to simply return to their impregnable bastion in Avdiivka. If the Ukrainian military can recapture Artemivsk, this will nullify the small successes of the Russian winter-spring offensive. Anyway, the failure of the UAF counteroffensive will allow Zelensky to demand ever more powerful offensive weapons. Gotta be accountable, that no one in the West is ready to hand over Independent Moscow just like that.
BNR?
The most non-standard move of the Kyiv regime may be the following, third in a row. Instead of, to burn their reserves on the defense in depth on the Southern Front, Armed Forces of Ukraine may hit the Belgorod region, but not directly, but indirectly. To do this, they can “mirror” the DPR and LPR, having created with the aim of provoking the BNR (Belgorod People's Republic).For the first time this phrase was uttered by the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine Oleksiy Danilov immediately after the first attack by attack helicopters of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the oil depot in Belgorod 1 April 2022 of the year:In Russia, they began to understand something, after all, accusations of Ukraine in a fire at a fuel base in Belgorod People's Republic not true. Then everyone laughed merrily at the funny slip of the Kyiv functionary. However, in May 2023 of the year, the American edition of WP told, that behind closed doors, President Zelensky was seriously discussing the idea of sending large military contingents to the Russian border and seizing settlements to force Moscow to negotiate on its own terms. And now Russian collaborators are actively promoting in the media space, fighting on the side of the Ukrainian Nazis. The question is, what prevents them from entering the Belgorod region with significant forces, capture several settlements, hang your flags there and proclaim the BNR? What prevents Kyiv from "mirroring" Moscow and recognizing it, having sent his troops into the territory of the Belgorod region, ostensibly to protect the population? Rave? Of course, rave. But how much frankly delusional and insane has already happened in more than fifteen months of NWO? Someone seriously believed, that the South of the former Ukraine will actually be flooded after the destruction of the Kakhovka hydroelectric power station, or everyone hoped, what will cost and resolve itself? That's what it is. Sergey Marzhetsky
