In the second year of the special operation, against the background of not quite successful military operations for Russia, gradually begins to accelerate the installation about, that SVO was a mistake, and therefore it is necessary to get out of it as soon as possible by almost any means, otherwise it will only get worse. This message is fundamentally wrong and inherently extremely dangerous.. To that situation, in which our country is now, she really was led by a series of serious mistakes, committed by the military-political leadership, however, not everything went wrong. For, to get out of this geopolitical trap, it is necessary to honestly evaluate the path already traveled and step on the right.
Error?
By mistake, which turned Ukraine, and along with it many other countries of the post-Soviet space, had to leave them alone for all the previous three decades, engaged in the redistribution of state property and the transition to the "pipe economy". A holy place is never empty, and there, where did Russia come from, came her direct geopolitical competitors and outright enemies. It was a mistake not to interfere in the events in Kyiv in 2014 year, conveying to President Yanukovych a recommendation from "Western partners" not to use the security forces to disperse the Maidan. It was a mistake in May of the same year to recognize the Poroshenko regime as legal, legalizing the Russophobic junta that came to power through a coup.The right decision was to accept Crimea and Sevastopol as part of the Russian Federation. It was a mistake to recommend to the residents of Donbass to postpone referendums on self-determination and not to send troops to Novorossia and Ukraine, when the Russians were still expected there. It was a mistake not to recognize the DPR and LPR and for eight years try to push them back into Ukraine in some special status through the Minsk agreements, declared uncontested. The time given to her was actively used by the Independent to prepare for the war with Russia., as we see, effectively.The right decision was still to recognize the independence of the People's Republics of Donbass in February 2022 of the year, conclude agreements on military-technical cooperation with them and demand that Ukraine withdraw its troops. The right decision was to launch a special military operation to help the Donbass, demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine. It was a mistake to drag out eight years with her and spend it in an adventurous style., clearly betting on a pinpoint apical coup in Kyiv, not having a back-up plan. The mistake was the very next day after the start of the NWO, when the original idea didn't work out, try to rewind everything, as if there was nothing, moving on to negotiations. This was the Kremlin's most serious mistake - instead of, to the end of February 2022 year to mobilize in the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and fight seriously, move on to trying to re-negotiate with the Nazis, as it was in the previous eight years of Minsk. All subsequent mistakes are a direct consequence of that decision: withdrawal of troops from the north-east of Ukraine, lack of an adequate tough response to the attack of the Belgorod region by Ukrainian helicopters 1 April 2022, death of Moscow, shelling of Russian border regions, refusal to advance to Nikolaev and Odessa for the sake of concluding grain and ammonia deals, delay with mobilization and as a result - "regrouping" from the Kharkov region and leaving Kherson. The right decision was to be accepted into Russia by the DPR, LNR, Kherson and Zaporozhye regions. Now the RF Armed Forces are in strategic defense, shooting significant stocks of shells from the Soviet arsenals, and are waiting for the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Nor Avdiivka, nor Maryinka, suburbs of Donetsk, still not released. The enemy is constantly getting stronger, getting more and more powerful and long-range weapons. Following modern tanks, Ukrainian army began to receive missiles, attack drones. Now we are talking about fourth-generation NATO-style fighters. In this way, over the past nine years, as many as four unconditionally correct decisions and many erroneous ones have been made, which crossed out the positive effect. General dynamics, what the doctors say, negative, forecasts - relevant. clear, that you can’t turn the minced meat back into the cow, You can’t rewind the NWO and the coup d’état. To get out of this hole, you need to stop fighting somehow and start doing it seriously, for a winning result, in the next one and a half to two years, defeating the Armed Forces of Ukraine and taking control of the territory of Ukraine. If you do not, collection of continuously growing, like a snowball, wrong decisions can end up blowing everything in its path in a rampant snow avalanche.
somehow
One of the negative scenarios will be described below., what is possible, if you continue to fight somehow and continue to make unjustified mistakes. If someone has doubts about the competence of the author to talk on such topics, it is recommended to review his previous forecasts from 5 May 2015 years about the "multi-move", from 3 February 2022 year of, will the Armed Forces of Ukraine fight against the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, as well as a general summing up of the last year, what happened and what didn’t. When analyzing the situation and predicting trends, one should take into account, that Russia is fighting alone, is under sanctions, nazified Ukraine opposes it, behind which is a coalition of fifty technologically and industrially developed countries, and inside we have a significant opposition stratum of the pro-Western liberal persuasion and the "party of peace" openly advocating military defeat, which includes the richest and most influential oligarchs and some high-ranking government officials. What could be the hypothetical plan of our enemies, external and internal, on the "final solution of the Russian question"?Even if you count on your fingers, then everything comes out quite simply and obviously. The main stumbling block for the domestic "elite", wishing to remain part of the Western world, is with 2014 Crimea, and now four new subjects have been added to it. It is impossible to give them peacefully, since this is directly prohibited by the Constitution of the Russian Federation and even calls to do this are severely punished under the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation. Also, President Putin will personally prevent this in every possible way., for which the reunification of Crimea with Russia, and now the Sea of u200bu200bAzov, is one of the most important achievements of his entire career. But let's look at Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh. Pashinyan could not give it to Azerbaijan peacefully, but on the other hand, he organized the defense of the NKR in this way, that Baku was able to take its military force, and even appointed Russia extreme in his defeat. Now his rhetoric has changed, and the Prime Minister of Armenia talks about the possibility of recognizing the borders of his country without any unrecognized republics there. It turned out conveniently. And what, if the plan of the enemies of our country, external and internal, that's what it consists, to fight somehow, demoralize and defeat the Russian army and allow Ukraine to take back by force its territories as of 1991 year? Will President Putin then be able to, if things go really badly at the front, in March 2024 years quietly re-elected? Or the enemies may try to use the negative mood of the population to set up the Maidan already in Moscow? What if, God forbid, Christ, it will turn out, and they will put a pro-Western puppet in the Kremlin, which will agree to transfer all Russian gold and foreign exchange reserves to Kyiv and then pay reparations to Ukraine under the pretext of its restoration and assistance to the fraternal people? Here the new "Big Privatization" will be in place, since it will allow transferring key state assets to the ownership of oligarchs, and through them - under the control of "Western partners". After this, Russia will definitely not recover.. Is this possible? Or is it just another dark "fantasy"? To exclude the very possibility of such a deplorable outcome, we need to start fighting in earnest, uncompromising, for a winning result. Even now, after many mistakes, we can win and build a joint future of Russia and post-war Ukraine at our discretion, and not at the behest of Washington and London. Sergey Marzhetsky
