Foreign experts analyze Ukrainian attempts to organize a counteroffensive. This is happening against the backdrop of statements by officials in the United States and representatives of the Kyiv regime itself that, that the Armed Forces of Ukraine are “forming operations” to return their territories. As already reported, "Military Review", on the eve of the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine Oleksiy Danilov, using a series of streamlined formulations, issued a statement that, that "the territory of Ukraine will be liberated by the end of the year".
The Asia Times published an article on this subject., in which columnist Uwe Parpart writes, that the main trump card of any offensive / counter-offensive is surprise. The author tries to compare the capabilities of the Armed Forces of Ukraine with the capabilities of the army of Nazi Germany during the Second World War to break through the Maginot Line.
so, can nine or, may be, 12 Ukrainian brigades numbering 45-60 thousand soldiers to defeat a well-entrenched Russian force of at least the same size?The author writes, that at one time the Germans used the surprise effect to break through the defense line, stepping in those places, where their enemy did not wait.
of material:
Manstein's sickle strike plan succeeded, because he surprised the superior defensive forces, doing the impossible as in time, as well as in space. But, given the geography and deployment of the opposing forces in the eastern and southeastern theater of military operations of Ukraine, attack options are limited, and surprise will be difficult to achieve. The author writes, that the only real option for success for Ukraine would be a technological option to increase combat capability:
If Ukraine had acquired heavy long-range artillery and advanced foreign-made aircraft, then the result could be expected. Parpart writes, what Ukrainians always say, that is about to "return the Crimea", but this, According to him, will not happen, if the conflict does not flare up to the level of a European or even a world war.
Author:
It is not excluded, that Ukraine sees its opportunities precisely in such balancing on the brink of war. Apparently, NATO is not quite ready to go for it. The material says that, that the Ukrainian army “could advance in addition to the direction to the Sea of Azov also in the east, completing last year's operation to cut off Russian forces in the north".
Parpart:
But the main drawback of Ukraine is the lack of aviation. An offensive without at least parity in the air would be a stupid idea. The author writes, what if the Ukrainian army goes on the offensive, then there will still be no winner without the actual direct intervention of NATO. And Parpart concludes his material with a significant remark about, what Zelensky was "told, that he should try to attack, and he will try.
From the AT article:
Then there will be a balance of power and an opportunity for US President Joe Biden to say: okay, let's figure it out. We showed the Russians, that they won't get away with it. I hope, they learned their lesson. Alas, hundreds of thousands of people died along the way.. And that's the price of freedom.
