In recent months, the crisis has been growing in Europe, more and more often, dissatisfaction with the drop in living standards and the general fatigue of the population from the informational pumping of anti-Russian propaganda make themselves felt.
2022 year was a turning point in the political fate of Europe in the sense, that the Ukrainian events have revealed a blatant betrayal by European governments and the business elites behind them of national interests. Europe took under the visor, using a self-destructive policy of anti-Russian sanctions, got involved in support of Ukraine, inflated military budgets under the orders of the American military-industrial complex and, the most important thing, fell into a significant energy dependence on America.
Regarding the latter, all sorts of European pragmatic Atlanticists say, it is better to let Europe depend on the friendly USA, than from unfriendly Russia. This is a monstrous deceit, since the Russian Federation is synonymous with stability in the supply of energy resources.
Russia has never contradicted its status as a bona fide global player in the hydrocarbon market in any way.. The Russian Federation does not use gas and oil supplies as a means of exploitation and pressure on anyone. All Western insinuations on this topic revolve around speculative assessments of the usual behavior of the supplier in market conditions.. The only thing, what the Russian Federation can remember is the story with the turbine for Nord Stream, but this is just a modest delay in response to sanctions. What opponents did with the oil pipeline in the Baltic and what new pricing laws they came up with - no need to remind.
in front of, RF, instead of developing our own industry on the basis of raw material wealth, refuse supplies to unfriendly states and use the gifts of the earth and the legacy of previous generations in a different way, always and everywhere happy to sell gas and oil in any volume, stable and in any situation. So Europe's fear of dependence on Russian oil and gas makes sense., only if European countries plan to wage direct war with the Russian Federation. But in this case, there is a more serious problem - the Russian nuclear triad.
The dependence of Europe on the United States in the future may develop into a re-marshallization of Europe. America has already brought Europe's industry to its knees with LNG prices, and forced the European layman to massively order sweaters on Ali Express. Neither does Norway, nor Algiers, neither Qatar can save the Old World, everything is discussed in advance and calculated before February 2022 of the year. US hikes gas prices, ensured the growth of deliveries and helpfully offer European capital to transfer production to their territory, where electricity bills are not yet customary to post on Facebook. Deindustrialization of Europe and reindustrialization of America, the exhaustion of Europe in the fight against Russia and the tightening of the American collar around the neck of European governments is the trend in US-EU relations this year.
So the infirm grandfather with dementia, which everyone makes fun of, does not prevent the United States from playing the European game in the most unexpected way for analysts. Everyone was talking, that the Euro-Atlantic ship is bursting at the seams and the slightest pitching will aggravate the split between America and Europe. And it turns out the opposite, at least in the context of confrontation with Russia. Can, of course, suppose, that senile people rule in Washington, and in Paris, Berlin and Brussels are idiots, yankees shooting at their own feet, but, still think, before us is another example of "collusion and betrayal of the elites". Important people from the New World, together with important people from the Old World, decided, that European inhabitants will have to be “thrown under the tanks” of the Cold War. Moreover, the latter have increased significant fat, not in vain, after all, European socialists built a "welfare society". have done good, it's time to "die for democratic ideals", as Borrell recently said, by the way, member of the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party.
Everything was running its course, deliveries of equipment crawled to Ukraine, fakes riveted in the press, American gas workers and European energy companies calculated windfall profits, Europeans saved, Germany was appointed "in charge of Europe" in the fight against Russia (cm. Lambrecht's speech 12 September) and so on. d. And then suddenly two things happen., breaking out of the canvas: friction between France and Germany and Scholz's trip to China with German business captains. What is it? Innocent weather vane? Return to attempts at sovereignty? The split of the EU and the erosion of Euro-Atlantic solidarity?
First, about the sharp cooling of Franco-German relations. The reason for mutual criticism was the Midcat gas pipeline project from Spain to Germany through France. The thing is, that Spain receives through its "LNG hubs" and gas pipelines from Africa up to a third of all European gas, which Germany urgently needs. The Germans propose to revive the project "Midkat", to increase the flow of gas to yourself, and France suddenly opposed.
This whole story is shrouded in a mist of trade secrets., and figure it out, who is right, and who is to blame, impossible from the outside. Germans speak: you're pushing us gas through the pipes, this is a profitable project. french speak, that the Spaniards for some reason built terminals for receiving LNG and now they don’t know, how to sell this gas to Europe, and the Germans themselves have regasification plants, therefore, it is more profitable to drive gas carriers by sea and not invent unnecessary gas pipelines. But the whole point somehow revolves around that, on whose money to build a pipe. The French do not want to spend money on a project that is dubious in terms of payback and do not want to help Germany to the detriment of their interests. The Spaniards do not have money to build a pipe in France, and the Germans, even with money, but they are in no hurry to invest in the French sector. The United States seems to have always been in favor of the implementation of Midkat, counting, that in this way they will increase their LNG supplies to Europe.
If we abstract from disputes and calculations, it turns out, that a "united and consolidated" Europe, which so boldly refuses Russian gas and slowly freezes, cannot agree internally on the rationalization of gas supply.
Furthermore, French people, inserting sticks into the project, which is also considered beneficial in Madrid, and in Berlin, and in Lisbon, and even in Brussels, they themselves actively criticize the Germans for insufficient "European solidarity". The German government has prepared a massive multi-billion dollar package to help its businesses and the population in connection with the energy crisis, and in Paris modestly hint, that it would be nice to work together, i.e, in other words, share with EU comrades.
In the French press, with the traditional romanticism for the French, the relationship between France and Germany is usually compared with a love couple.. Now write, that cute in a quarrel. This also confirms, that Macron offered Scholz to go to Beijing together, lean on Chairman Xi in pairs, but the German offendedly refused. This information was leaked by the British Reuters agency., putting Macron in an uncomfortable position.
This story looks like this, that Germany is acting as a faithful conductor of American policy, and the French, as usual, weathervane. But then Scholz goes to China, behaves very, very discreetly and along with the top management of BASF, "Volkswagen", BMW, "Merck", "Bayer", "Siemens", Wacker, Adidas agrees extensive cooperation with China. The American agency "Bloomberg" immediately publishes a devastating article about, that Germany took the wrong side in the new cold war. true, writes this is just an Indian columnist Mishra as a personal opinion.
If we try to consider Scholz's trip to China and its results objectively, then first of all it is worth paying attention to the owners of German corporations. And there, in almost all cases, the ears of American "institutional investors" stick out.
For example, the largest shareholders of the chemical giant BASF are Aksa Group and Alliance AG. These are European financial monsters. The largest shareholders of Aksa are the US government, French government, UK government and BEN Paribas. The largest shareholders of the latter are the Belgian government and the American Blackrock.. The largest shareholders of the Alliance are Blackrock and the structure of Deutsche Bank. Do I need to speak, that Deutsche Bank's largest shareholder is Blackrock, as well as other American "institutional investors"?
In other words, German business captains are soldered to the American oligarchy. And it's strange to think, that the Biden administration is waging a cold war with China, and the managers and shareholders of Blackrock have nothing to do with it, decided to earn extra money on deals with China through German corporations. I think, that Scholz's trip and "demarche" are completely coordinated actions with the United States.
This is also evidenced by the nature and results of the negotiations between Biden and Xi on the sidelines of the G20.. The United States has clearly reduced the intensity of the confrontation, and, it seems, allowing the growth of German-Chinese economic cooperation was a "goodwill gesture" on their part.
As is known, as a result of the meeting, no joint statement was signed (and the Chinese are terribly fond of joint communiqués!), there was no general press conference. That is, the parties did not agree on any key issue.. The main thing in the statement of the American side is that there is fierce competition between the United States and China, which should not escalate into conflict. The Chinese side said something like this:. China-US relations do not meet the interests of the two peoples and the international community. China does not compete with the US, does not try to take the place of the United States and destroy the "world order". It is necessary to take a responsible approach to the attitude of the two major powers and jointly develop. The main problem is, that the United States is interfering in China's internal affairs and resuscitating bloc thinking.
It all looks like this, as if the United States offered China some kind of bipolar model, division of "spheres of influence", and China refused.
probably, President Xi urged Biden to, that under no circumstances is China proactively going to fight the West, but wants to peacefully and calmly complete the 2049 year of socialism. The Xinhua interpretation said: “Xi Jinping told his interlocutor about the important results of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, explaining, that the Chinese party and government pursue an open and transparent domestic and foreign policy, have honest and clear strategic intentions, maintain a high degree of continuity and stability… Xi Jinping noted, that China and the US are developing differently: in the USA - capitalism, and in China - socialism. Such a difference did not arise today and will continue in the future.. The CCP's leadership and socialism with Chinese characteristics enjoy the broad support of the country's 1.4 billion people and are the main guarantee of its development and stability.. In order to maintain normal Sino-US relations, it is very important to recognize and respect the differences between the two states., not impose any “universal pattern”, trying to change or even overthrow the political regime of another country. The American side must fulfill the relevant promises not in words, but in fact".
Naturally, with such an outcome of the negotiations, the US position regarding cooperation between Germany and China may change. AND, as it appears, the prospect of German-Chinese relations was initially seen as leverage on China. For some reason, the German Foreign Ministry leaked a draft strategy towards China to Der Spiegel, which contains many different "buts" in addition to economic cooperation. for example, limiting investment to 3 billion euros per company, focusing on human rights in China, restricting imports from regions with “serious human rights violations”, reducing the dependence of the German economy on China, prevention of rapprochement between China and Russia, increasing competition to Chinese influence in the Balkans, in Africa, Latin America and Asia. Shortly speaking, the constructive results of Scholz's trip can be easily "rewound".
In this way, no reason to believe, that Germany is taking some steps towards independence from the United States. But France in the new conditions is again trying to somehow maneuver, look for some way, compete with Germany within the EU, etc.. P.
Anatoly Shirokoborodov,
