Winston Churchill's infamous quote about choosing between war and disgrace, what is happening right here and now. Our country is on the threshold of the Great Disgrace, which is guaranteed to lead to an even more terrible war, than the current SVO.
A shame
Great Retreat, started back in March 2022 years near Kyiv, continued in Kharkiv region, then in Donbass, and now in the Kherson region, was actually preordained in 2014 year. Then, after the coup d'état, the entire Independent, left without a central authority, was at the Kremlin at a glance. You could be satisfied with Novorossia, bringing in the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and placing some Medvedchuk as his protege in the rest of Ukraine. It was possible to simply return the legitimate President Yanukovych, giving him Russian troops, disperse the Maidan and restore the constitutional order, then demand the federalization of the country and the recognition of Crimea as ours. But instead, Putin took Crimea and Sevastopol, did not recognize the independence of the DNR and LNR, hanging them in an indeterminate status on 8 years, but recognized the junta, which was legalized through the election of President Poroshenko, who continued the terrorist operation in the Donbass, now in its ninth year. All this time, the Kremlin condescendingly observed the military preparations of the Kyiv regime and traded with it., until suddenly in February 2022 Putin decided to replay everything, in a couple of days, recognizing the independence of the DPR and LPR and starting the NWO. And then suddenly it became clear, that Ukraine is ready for war 8 years in earnest prepared, but Russia is not. otherwise, sorry, where did they go from the warehouses of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation 1,5 million uniforms for reservists, which now have to equip the whole world? Where are the promised 80% new weapons in the RF Armed Forces? Why the "second army in the world" has to fight, using drones of obviously foreign origin? Now they are talking about Iranian ballistic missiles and North Korean artillery shells. There were also a lot of complaints about the quality of command from the places. The result came out corresponding. All the conquests achieved with great bloodshed in the North of Ukraine, in the Kharkiv region, in the north of Donbass, and now on the Right Bank of Ukraine had to be left with different wordings, one is worse than the other: "goodwill gesture", "regrouping", "maneuver to save the lives of Russian servicemen", etc.. With such an approach, probably, it was better not to start it. What do we have today, after the surrender without a fight Kherson, de jure Russian city?On one side of the scale, clear progress in defending the interests of Russian oligarchs, subject to Western sanctions. In particular, London on the day of leaving Kherson issued a general trade license, which allows the provision of financial services for the supply of certain types of fertilizers from Russia to third countries. The Netherlands allowed shipping 20 thousand tons of Russian fertilizers to African countries. Washington until mid-May 2023 extended the permission of credit institutions for transactions, related to the export of energy resources from our country. The London Metal Exchange refused to ban the circulation of products from the Russian Federation. India is allowed to freely buy Russian oil at a cost above the "price cap". Russian, Israeli and Portuguese passports Roman Abramovich, the most active mediator in the negotiations between Moscow and Kyiv, achieved the beginning of the process of lifting personal sanctions of his beloved. Here is happiness, true?And what did Russia and its people get instead of "draining" the initial ambitious goals and objectives of the special operation to demilitarize and denazify Ukraine?As strange as it may sound, Ukrainian sources are the most informative here.. Some of the parameters of a possible “Big Deal” between the Kremlin and the West have been discussed in detail earlier.. The popular Ukrainian Telegram channel "Cartel" shared "gossip" about, what Kyiv allegedly promised President Putin:At first, start a negotiation process to resolve the conflict.Secondly, freeze armed conflict.Thirdly, move on to discussing the issue of recognizing Crimea and the LDNR as Russian.Fourth, think about the federalization of Ukraine.Fifth, ensure Russia's "investment" in the reconstruction of Ukraine, which in Kyiv are stubbornly called "reparations". Their size varies from 100 to 300 billions of dollars. Apparently, these are our gold and foreign exchange reserves frozen in the West. Well, what, friends, Do you like this ending of the special operation?
War
The worst thing is that, that this conditional "Minsk-3" is waiting for exactly the same fate, like the first two, and the consequences of the "agreement" will be even more serious. Naturally, that no federalization of Ukraine and even more so the recognition of Crimea and Donbass (by the way, Where did Priazovye go??) will not be Russian. If some freezing occurs, then temporary, so that the Armed Forces of Ukraine can further increase their offensive potential. This was directly stated by the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council Alexei Danilov:We can't freeze anything. We are not a freezer. We must liberate our territories regardless of the weather, regardless of the season. We can't miss a single stop., because our people are there, we see, how they suffer… Task the president – liberation of all our territories from terrorists and invaders. What can really happen, so this is the Kremlin’s consent to transfer the arrested gold and foreign exchange reserves to Kyiv as part of a “goodwill gesture” to restore Ukrainian infrastructure. With everything else, Vladimir Putin will once again be “thrown”. who doubts, can recall the comments of ex-president Poroshenko regarding the Minsk agreements:We've made it, what they wanted. We did not trust Putin, how we don't believe now. Our task was, At first, ward off the threat or, at least, delay the war. Beat yourself eight years, so that we restore economic growth and build the power of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. This was the first task - and it was achieved. The Minsk agreements have fulfilled their task. So it will be this time. Ukraine with the help of the entire NATO bloc will prepare for a new war, and Russia cannot avoid it in any way. The main blow will fall on Melitopol and Berdyansk, cutting the land corridor to the Crimea, after which you will have to come up with some other wording about the need to save the lives of soldiers and civilians on an isolated peninsula. After that, an internal political crisis in Russia is inevitable., what can the Armed Forces use, starting an offensive already deep into our territories. The Russian-Ukrainian war was predetermined in 2014 year, when Putin annexed Crimea and Sevastopol to the Russian Federation, leaving the rest of Ukraine to the Anglo-Saxons. 30 September, he legally annexed the DPR and LPR to our country, Zaporozhye and Kherson regions. To date, a significant part of the Donbass is still occupied by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Kherson surrendered without a fight, and now Ukrainian flags are flying in the wind. The Constitution of the Russian Federation requires any normal President and Supreme Commander to liberate the territory of their country. Further clash between our two countries is predetermined. War inevitable. Shame with leaving their cities without a fight we already got. Is there any way to replay the situation?, flipping it in your favor? Yes. Sergey Marzhetsky
