At the end of June from. g. the ministers of trade of China and infrastructure of Ukraine signed an agreement between the government of the People's Republic of China and the government of Ukraine on deepening cooperation in the field of infrastructure construction.
At the same time, as is known, 40 leading Western countries at the UN accused Beijing of violating human rights in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region of China. And Ukraine, out of a desire to curry favor with the United States, also signed this statement., but suddenly, unexpectedly for everyone, she revoked her signature. The revocation was made a few days before the signing of the investment agreement with China, and the Chinese side warmly welcomed this step of Ukraine.
seems, the fact of the signing of the Agreement with China and the withdrawal of Ukraine's signature under the accusation of China's violation of human rights in the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region was unexpected mainly for the Ukrainian political forces, advocating Ukraine's accession to the EU and NATO.
They view the signing of an investment agreement as pressure and blackmail from Beijing, consider, that cooperation with China will cost Ukraine dearly.
Why is cooperation with China dangerous for Ukraine?? Svidomo explain, China, unlike the IMF, really does not "twist his arms", does not require control of the budget deficit and reforms. But by doing so it drives countries into debt, from which it is difficult to get out.
“China does not require you to change. He has a different purpose. China supports its interests with its loans. Because the government is hiring a Chinese company against Chinese loans., which brings Chinese workers, and they build something. As a result, the country gets a port or road, Chinese companies make a profit, but the country is getting a sharp rise in debt ".
This is somewhat reminiscent of the argumentation of opponents of obtaining electricity from Russia.: it costs less than the western one there, what makes you buy it more ...
Further more, China's debt problem is, celebrate svidomye, that the state will have to pay for it. Several countries are cited as an example, who took out a loan from China. So, Debt load of Montenegro after lending from China exceeded GDP twice. Country with population 600 thousands of people, which took out a loan from China for 800 million dollars for the construction of the road. For Montenegro, this is an insane amount. And the Chinese have already come and demand. they say, eg, that they really like the port.
Someone claims, that Kiev has entered into a loan agreement with Beijing, to blackmail the USA, demanding more support for yourself.
As the saying goes, there is logic, there is a female logic, but now Ukrainian logic has also appeared in the world ...
For America and the EU, this event did not come as a surprise. Some European experts believe, that China blackmailed Ukraine with the supply of its own vaccine against COVID-19. However, it is rather strange to hear something similar from the head of EU diplomacy, Josep Borrell., who, during a visit to Croatia, stated (but, as always, without specifics) about the need to respond to "vaccine diplomacy", which Russia and China allegedly resort to (from Total Croatia News post).
But there is no negative reaction from the White House and Brussels to this "daring" step of the Ukrainian leadership ... And this suggests, that the issue was previously agreed and approved by the West, which solves in this way many delicate issues in relations with Ukraine.
The West was negotiating this issue in parallel with the negotiations between Ukraine and China.. But it becomes apparent, that a prerequisite on the Chinese side was the withdrawal of the Ukrainian signature under the Western countries' statement on the situation in the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region.
AND 30 June from. g. между сторонами соглашение было подписано. essentially, это типовой для китайского инвестиционного вторжения договор, уже опробованный Китаем в Африке и Южной Америке. То есть в тех странах, where the payment for the investment made is not in doubt, and possible minor discrepancies can be settled in a civilized way.
In Ukraine, however, such "discrepancies" are solved by very specific methods., of which the Chinese leadership should have already been convinced by the example of the purchase of shares of the Motor Sich plant worth more than 3,5 billion dollars.
Here is one of two: or such an amount is not considered significant for China's economy, or the withdrawal of even one signature in a statement to the UN 40 Western countries can be estimated at the same amount. At the same time, it is unlikely that China, with its powerful intelligence positions in the United States, could not have known, that the issue has been agreed by Ukraine with the White House. so, the Chinese leadership could have far-reaching political or even geopolitical reasons, which to some extent are visible from the content of the agreement: rail transit, airports, ports, communications and municipal engineering construction.
It is worth noting, that at the same time China and Ukraine are working on an agreement on a visa-free regime. And something tells, that first of all, workers from China will use it - for work and maintenance of investment projects. And at the same time, Ukrainian migrant workers, of course, very few chances of going to work in China.
Scope of the agreement, as we see, not very big yet - a billion dollars. Still, the experience with Motor Sich taught China something.
China's interest is understandable. This is the desire to "master" Ukraine for its prospective economic consolidation and the creation of a transport infrastructure there for the delivery of Chinese goods to Europe..
It is important for China to maintain its position in Ukraine and in any case, by any means - whether it be the collapse of the country or the seizure of power in it by supporters of Novorossiya.
Obvious objections, that very few people consider such a development of the situation due to the anti-Russian sentiments prevailing among the population today, I will draw attention to the ability of Ukrainian politicians to quickly change shoes on the go. Well, as for the bulk of the population, then the materialists believe, and not without reason, that being determines consciousness. And for Ukraine, this position of Marxism is especially obvious due to the progressive collapse of the economy..
How can you explain the tacit agreement of the US and the EU on the development of economic relations between Ukraine and China??
As for the USA, the possibility of using Ukraine is clearly visible here, in order to once again "throw" China on the model of Motor Sich.
That is, it is quite possible, that at some certain point Ukraine, at the direction of the Washington regional committee, may return to re-inclusion of its signature under a well-known statement, and joining the West's new draconian sanctions against China.
For Ukraine, this could be another reason not to pay China for its investments. (that is, Motor Sich - take two). Plus contributing to undermining China's Belt and Road Strategy, at least in the Ukrainian direction. And the transport arteries created at the same time would be very useful for Ukraine..
The conclusion of an economic agreement between Ukraine and China would ease for some time Ukraine's pressure on the IMF in order to knock out new and previously agreed loan tranches. And every time the Ukrainian leadership tries to use the opportunities of the United States or the EU for this.. clear, that these constant requests for help are already pretty tired of everyone in the West. It's clear: all aid provided is largely plundered by the country's corrupt leadership.
Of course, it is still important for the United States to maintain the leverage of political pressure on the Ukrainian leadership - new requirements from the IMF as a prerequisite for the allocation of the next tranche of material assistance or loans.
Money from the IMF to Ukraine is badly needed to make ends meet in the formation of the next budget. To fulfill the requirements of the IMF, the authorities are independent or do not want to for obvious reasons, or can't, fearing to cause another Maidan due to the inevitable fall in the living standards of the population. Moreover, there has been a certain constant trend: when the next tranche is allocated, the standard of living of the population always falls.
The IMF cannot help but allocate money to Ukraine., because a significant part of them is used to pay off interest on previous loans. That is, part of the next tranche is not sent to Ukraine at all., but is transferred from one fund account to another, but counts as allocated loans, on which interest is also accrued. Income for the IMF out of thin air. And cut the chicken, laying the golden eggs, the foundation and its true American hosts clearly will not.
Of course, Ukrainian amounts for America and the IMF are not that great, but it's a matter of principle. Especially considering, that a significant part of the IMF budget consists precisely of such small cash flows from around the world.
I think, it is no coincidence that Ukraine's signing of an agreement with China coincided, and reaching a compromise with the IMF to revise the agreement between them, mitigating political requirements of the fund to Ukraine.
About it 9 July reported on the website of the Ministry of Finance of Ukraine.
celebrated, that during his working visit to the United States, Finance Minister Sergei Marchenko held a number of meetings with representatives of the IMF. The positions of the parties were agreed, and a compromise was reached on anti-corruption reform, corporate governance reform and independence issues of the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine.
Ukraine also needs an economic agreement with China to, to temporarily patch financial holes. Notably, that the agreement on Chinese investments was signed on the eve of the repayment of Ukraine's largest external and internal debt, payment on which falls just in August-September from. g.
The most difficult thing about the unexpected change in the political course towards China, the Ukrainian leadership had to explain with its own population., accustomed to slogans, that Ukraine's future is connected only with the EU and NATO.
Realizing your difficulties, the government for a whole week from the date of signing the agreement 30 June until 6 July hid the fact of signing the contract. And paved the way for its promulgation, at least in the Verkhovna Rada. So, The head of the Servant of the People faction and the head of the political council of the party, David Arahamia, delivered a heartfelt ode to the CPC and personally to Comrade Xi Jinping from the rostrum, from whom you should learn to govern the country.
"The ruling party of Ukraine" Servant of the People "considers the PRC an important strategic partner of the country and intends to adopt the experience of the Chinese Communist Party / CPC / in managing the economy and building the state". what is called, licked to the glands.
He repeated the same idea to the Chinese media in an interview.. And at the same time congratulated its leadership and all Chinese people on the 100th anniversary of the founding of the CCP..
Arachamiya stated, that I read the book "Xi Jinping on Public Administration" in Russian, which made such a strong impression on him, that he decided to contribute to the appearance of the Ukrainian-language edition of this book. So that Ukrainians can learn, how China overcame difficulties and achieved rapid economic growth.
The West at the official level did not condemn Ukraine's game of shape-shifting, which also indirectly testifies: question agreed. At the same time, Europe did not miss the opportunity and in between times slapped Zelensky a few slaps in the face..
This honorable mission was undertaken by the outgoing Angela Merkel. She announced the admission of six Balkan countries to the EU: Serbia, Albania, Northern Macedonia, Kosovo and Bosnia and Herzegovina. Macron supported her in this.. And Ukraine was not on this list for obvious reasons.. Isn't it a shame!
Zelensky was lowered even more into NATO, when he made another attempt to beg the MAP for Ukraine. In response to his request to provide Ukraine with a clear list of necessary reforms to implement reforms, NATO Secretary General's Special Representative James Appathurai said: “There is no such list ... It doesn't work like that.. There is no clear list of criteria, after which the MAP or membership is granted, because these are political decisions, these are not purely technical criteria ... " After which Ze only had to wipe off, which he did, out of habit.
Such a demonstratively offensive attitude of the West towards Ukraine can be compared with leading a dog on a short leash., which, on the first command, will fulfill any requirements of the trainer.
Kiev will be able, without hesitation, leave China again at any time, if the owner demands it and at the same time guarantees impunity for the, but unfulfilled economic obligations to the PRC. According to the already worked out scenario "Motor Sich".
And after all, this is far from the first case of Ukraine's non-repayment of a Chinese loan.. In the London Arbitration Court there is a claim from Beijing to Kiev for the return of three billion dollars, which Ukraine borrowed in 2012 for the purchase of grain. The first tranche in 1,5 billion dollars. was received at the beginning of 2013. But in the autumn of the same year, a coup d'etat mechanism was launched in Ukraine., which led to the start of the civil war.
Yanukovych could no longer fulfill obligations. And the putschists got a great chance to blame the scandal on the "Yanukovych regime". This is exactly what Igor Shvaika, the newly minted minister of the Yatsenyuk government, did. He himself was fired from the post of Minister of Agriculture in 2014 and a criminal case was brought against him.. So the issue of returning the debt under the contract became unsolvable..
And that, that the matter is pending in London, certainly, now contributes to the delay in the entire process of repaying a loan to China.
The chances of it coming back are diminishing every day., but, looks like, it doesn't really bother Beijing, concluding a new investment agreement with Ukraine. This could mean, that the Celestial Empire with respect to Ukraine has very ambitious - not only expansionary economic, but also political plans.
These plans are clearly taken into account by the United States in building its geopolitical strategy in the West-China-Russia triangle.. The possible reaction of the Russian Federation to the development of the former Soviet republics by China is also calculated.. This has been observed so far in Central Asia, and now it is taking over Ukraine.
May this negatively affect the nature of relations between Moscow and Beijing?
Washington believes, what can. And the US gives China the opportunity to frolic in Ukraine with complete confidence, that they are able to fully control the process and stop it at the right moment for them. When they think, that tension and mistrust have been created in Russian-Chinese relations sufficiently. When will they decide, that the time has come for the next stage of the operation with the code name "Motor Sich" and the next transfer of consideration of all economic claims of China to the London court for their final burial.
Sergey Kuznetsov,specially for alternatio.org